How much auction money is too little (i.e. do I need to do something different)?

[cavebird]

As I noted in Hornsby's thread, I also have a team with tons of dollars tied up in keepers and potential keepers. Here's my situation. This is a 16-team mixed 5x5 league (the local one I have mentioned a million times with weird keeper rules like they are locked in your lineup, although we have a different type of keeper this year that isn't, a retained player (along with the ones who are) as part of special rules for 2020/2021 due to the shortened season last year). We are going from 15 teams last year to 16 this year because we lost one right before the auction last year due to scheduling (it wasn't held the usual time due to the pandemic) and he's back with an expansion team. There is a $300 auction budget as opposed to the normal $260. With the special rules and going from 15 to 16 teams inflation is higher than ever this year, with the program most of the league uses (RotoLab--I love it for auction tracking; not so enamored with the Baseball HQ projections that come with it) calculating it at 30%. I understand that this isn't that high for some leagues, but the normal, restrictive keeper rules in this league usually leave inflation around 20% and last year we replaced three teams (as well as losing one) and inflation was very low (all new teams have expansion teams with no keepers), so people got deals and are going to keep them. One other special rule for this year is that position eligibility was retained from last year, so any position a player was eligible for last year, he also is this year. Along with any positions eligible due to 2020, although it still required 20 games, even from 2020. That is for position players. Pitchers are SP and RP and can only be one, but anyone who would be RP eligible either year is RP eligible. Hitting positions are standard, but only one catcher. There are 6 SP slots and 5 RP slots. Pitchers tend to go wildly over-value at auction. My team is below. Locked-in-lineup keepers have a year after their name (the year they are signed through)--an F at the end means it is the final contract and cannot be extended. Players with Ret. after the name are retained and can be benched--they are treated as if they were bought at auction this year, but must be in the lineup at auction. Those with question marks after the name are guys I could keep but do not have to keep---if I do, they will be locked in lineup.

C: Travis d'Arnaud ATL $7 ??
1B: Freddie Freeman ATL $44 (Ret.)
3B:
CI:
2B: Ozzie Albies $11 (2021)
SS: Xander Bogaerts $38 ??
MI:
OF: Ronald Acuna $11 (2022)
OF: Michael Conforto $25 (2021)
OF: Nicholas Castellanos $22 (Ret.)
OF:
OF:
UT:

SP: Shane Bieber $40 (2021)
SP: Jack Flaherty $11 (2021F)
SP: Zac Gallen $22 (2021)
SP: Frankie Montas $6 (2022)
SP: German Marquez $2 (Ret.)
SP:
RP: Matt Barnes $8 (2021)
RP:
RP:
RP:
RP:

Res: O'Neil Cruz $0
11 other empty reserve slots

If I keep both d'Arnaud and Bogaerts, that would leave me with only $53 out of $300 auction dollars. However, I wouldn't need much but a second closer and some cheap upside bats. It is known that I have little auction dollars left, and I have an offer of a $6 Richard Rodriguez (meatball PIT closer) for either Castellanos or Gallen, but I think that is selling things short. Still, Castellanos is about at value and Gallen is a wild lightning rod--I've seen him between 9th and 15th in some SP rankings (Sarris, Sporer, the other guy at FanGraphs, Zola) and in the 40's or 50's other places (The BAT, Baseball HQ). I don't know what to think of him. I got him as an evener in a trade to get Bieber a week ago or so (I wanted to avoid the draft SP chaos). I, however, am holding out for that guy's $2 Mancini (Ret.). I have talked about doing both Castellanos and Gallen for Rodriguez and Mancini, but he won't bite, and honestly, now I am not even sure if I like that.

Here are some of my other thoughts:

1: (Head): Inflation is as high as it will ever be, so why do I need draft dollars? These guys are all values at the inflated prices except for d'Arnaud and he's both the best catcher not kept if I don't keep him and only $1 over-valued. So, stand pat unless I get a good offer.

2. (Head): If I just showed up at auction with the cheap keepers and got Freeman, Bogaerts, Bieber, Castellanos, Conforto, and Gallen for those prices, I would think I am rocking the auction. All I have to do now is show up and shut up and that's already happened.

3. (Heart): I love the auction. It is awesome. With this little money, I am barely a participant. That sucks. Find a close to fair deal to shed some salary.

4. (Head): Flexibility is important. Even with high inflation, there will be values at auction. And I have SP, where there are never any value plays in this league, so the value will likely be where I need it, so having a bit more auction cash would help. Besides, the bargain CI's (and I need two) are usually garbage and I can't afford the expensive ones.

5. (Head): There are some guys out there at auction who I think are undervalued generally and I can get for what I think are good prices. Can't get those guys without auction cash.

So, if anyone has made it through this insanely long post (I ramble on talking or typing. I should have been a lawyer. Wait...nevermind) any thoughts would be appreciated, whether they are about the trade ideas noted, the idea of going into the auction with low auction cash, etc.

[Hornsby]

Honestly, after reading through this a couple of times, I do think that you have to follow your head. As much fun as slugging it out in the auction may be, it's only one day a year. Everyone that you've liste is either at value, or actually below value, IMO. A couple I'd look at tossing back might be Barnes and Maybe Montas. I just don't know that Barnes is going to close for the Red Sox with the addition of Ottovino, and I just don't trust Montas. I wouldn't extend Travis, but he's a damn good value. Boegarts is at value, so I'd probably let him just play out his deal as well.

Go into the auction with the best keeper list and play your hand in the end game...

[chancellor]

Wow...yeah, I agree, I'd come in with this keeper list, devote the early part of the auction to pure psychological warfare and long-term strategy (because in my twisted sense, I love that, too), and plan for the one or two players you want to aim for mid to late game, and then manage the endgame.

That keeper list is the bomb - I mean, put it in a 16-team mixed league draft perspective. You have three first round picks (Acuna, Bieber, Freeman), two second round picks (Albies, Bogaerts) and a third rounder with first to second round upside in Flaherty. And, to top it off, you have solid values in Castellanos, Conforto, and Gallen. I agree with Hornsby that Barnes and Montas come with risk, but for $14 for both and your info that pitching typically comes at premium prices, I think you have to accept that risk and keep both. But, yeah, if I were in a league with 20-30% inflation, and I had that list by the midpoint of the auction, I'd be overjoyed.

Strategically, you need to think about opportunity cost - if late CI's are typically trash, I'd probably focus my nomination efforts in that area, ignore the first few after nomination, and hopefully slip one decent one through mid to late mid-game. If my calculations are right, you'll have $53 for 6 hitters and 5 pitchers, with most pitchers needing RP qualification. I'd look at budgeting 3 for $30 and the remaining 8 for $23, but that'll depend on keepers and available players. You might be better dropping money on one $20ish player and playing endgame style from there out.

Agree with Horns on d'Arnaud for sure; he's a solid value at $7, but extending a catcher in a one C league...nope. Given your inflation levels, going one more year on Bogaerts would make sense independent of your present keeper list, but with that keeper list, I'd keep at $38 and play him out and use the extra $5 to go for the win this year.

Can you extend Albies? I didn't see an "F" on him.

[cavebird]

Thanks to both for taking the time to read that and respond! To answer some questions:

1. Barnes and Montas are already signed. I cannot walk away from them without trading them. Barnes I could move pretty easily, but even if he is a meatball, he'll close at the start of the season, it appears, and as long as I don't get buried in saves, I can waiver wire and trade for them during the year, so I like having at least one closer, even a meatball, going in to the auction. I wish I still had Karinchak, who I drafted for $3 last year, but he was part of the dump deal to get Albies, so I can't complain.

2. I can extend Albies, but I don't have to make a decision until next off-season. But under our keeper rules, I get one "free" extension each year (i.e., I don't pay for the extension itself; the player's price still goes up $5 each year; additional ones cost 5 auction dollars in addition to player salary increases), and nothing to do with mine other than extend one of my players with the one I have that expires this off-season. I'll use it on Albies or Acuna, but probably Acuna. The advantage of waiting is that you have more information about how long the extension will be---when I extend, I pick the number of years, and once extended, the contract becomes an "F" contract. Since Acuna is an obvious long extension, it is easier to do his first even though I have two years to do it. Then again, I might do Albies this year, one of the pitchers next year, and Acuna after 2022.

3. I agree that they are all at or below value. I would only move them for similar assets, but people aren't offering anything good. Bogaerts is the only one I could throw back and gain serious salary, but if I did, he'd go for $45+---and I'd need a good MI. If I threw him back, I'd happily take him at auction for $38, so throwing him back does seem a bit silly.

4. And as great as that keeper list is, the scary thing is that someone has one much better--the best this league has seen in decades. He's got: Juan Soto $6, Luis Robert $1, Yordan Alvarez Reserve Round, Trevor Bauer $27, Yu Darvish $29, Aldaberto Mondesi $11, Mookie Betts $26, Sixto Sanchez Reserve Round, Eugenio Suarez $25, and DJ LeMahieu $29, with $123 left for auction. My job will be to troll him all auction long, lol. I think part of my overthinking is trying to catch this guy, but if I got any trade offers good enough to do that, I would feel bad about fleecing someone that badly, and the trade would probably be vetoed anyway.

[chancellor]

Per your extensions, sure makes sense to me to do Albies, a pitcher, then Acuna.

That other keeper list is just gross. Sounds like you need to venture out and get some voodoo dolls.

[cavebird]

Per your extensions, sure makes sense to me to do Albies, a pitcher, then Acuna.

That other keeper list is just gross. Sounds like you need to venture out and get some voodoo dolls.

The scary thing was that my dump trade last year for Albies was with him---he had Albies, too (who he got in a dump trade with me the year before). He still managed to lose the league on the last day of the season when Rosenthal came in and struck out the side to end the Giants season. The guy needed a clean inning (for WHIP) and at least 2 K's to win, and he got it.

[cavebird]

Crazy idea I got. Trea Turner just ended up with the league jack of all trades (literally ten and counting this off-season alone). He's $16, signed through 2024 (goes up $5 every year) with no further extension allowed. The only package that he might go for is Albies $11 (signed through 2021, but can be extended as explained above) and Flaherty $11 (contract expiring at the end of 2021 cannot be extended). I'd try to get little pieces added on each side to get me some salary without losing value (maybe Castellanos $22 or Bogaerts $38 to him and Leody Taveras reserve round keeper to me).

Does this make any sense, or should I just stick to my current, shut up until lunch at auction strategy?

[Gregg]

Crazy idea I got. Trea Turner just ended up with the league jack of all trades (literally ten and counting this off-season alone). He's $16, signed through 2024 (goes up $5 every year) with no further extension allowed. The only package that he might go for is Albies $11 (signed through 2021, but can be extended as explained above) and Flaherty $11 (contract expiring at the end of 2021 cannot be extended). I'd try to get little pieces added on each side to get me some salary without losing value (maybe Castellanos $22 or Bogaerts $38 to him and Leody Taveras reserve round keeper to me).

Does this make any sense, or should I just stick to my current, shut up until lunch at auction strategy?

I wouldn't do that if it were my team.

[chancellor]

Crazy idea I got. Trea Turner just ended up with the league jack of all trades (literally ten and counting this off-season alone). He's $16, signed through 2024 (goes up $5 every year) with no further extension allowed. The only package that he might go for is Albies $11 (signed through 2021, but can be extended as explained above) and Flaherty $11 (contract expiring at the end of 2021 cannot be extended). I'd try to get little pieces added on each side to get me some salary without losing value (maybe Castellanos $22 or Bogaerts $38 to him and Leody Taveras reserve round keeper to me).

Does this make any sense, or should I just stick to my current, shut up until lunch at auction strategy?

It's not crazy, but I'd stay with Albies/Flaherty and the rest of your team. I think net-net your present team is better than the one you'd end up with.

[cavebird]

Thanks for the advice. I wouldn't think I'd ever be eager to trade Albies, but sometimes I get a little over-eager on getting the best player in a trade even if I am giving up too much in aggregate. I think you are probably right even though I worry that Flaherty will be babied too much this year (he was last year to the point of making him useless), because on top of the reasons you mention, it leaves me without a second baseman, and it is just a wasteland with the few guys remaining who are not kept.

[cavebird]

Okay, I need to be talked off the ledge of a trade again. This is a "proposal" not an offer, that we both are considering. I trade Gallen $22 and Bogaerts $38 for Semien $13 and Leody Taveras (reserve round; free). I free up a ton of salary, get a decent replacement for Bogaerts at a good price and a possible power/speed guy on the reserve roster, which allows some fun things like taking Tork in the auction or just having more depth. It does cost me on the pitching side, but I still have Flaherty and Beiber, as well as Montas and Marquez. This would allow me to buy an elite hitter at auction along with what I was already going to draft. But, it does reduce production when inflation is going to be high. According to my program, I gain on profit, but slightly fall in overall team value (since it assumes inflated prices at auction). The reason the other guy is considering it is that he just traded Hendricks for hitters and then had the Framber Valdez news hit him.

I also floated the idea of taking Valdez off his hands for Flaherty ($11, expiring contract) and Castellanos $22 so long as he includes Trea Turner $16. He wasn't particularly amused. I don't need advice to do that if he would agree, but he won't.

[chancellor]

(Head): There are some guys out there at auction who I think are undervalued generally and I can get for what I think are good prices. Can't get those guys without auction cash.

So, this deal would get you to $100 in auction cash if my math is right. I went back to your first post and found the above - if you're right about undervalued players, that's where I'd be investing. I suspect those undervalued players aren't the elite studs coming back into auction. Given that you already have elite stud hitters in Freeman, Acuna, and Albies, my inclination would be to buy the undervalued, "sub-elite" players you referred to and then I think you could come out ahead in the deal. But if you spend $45 to get an elite hitter who might be a touch better than Bogaerts...then it's kinda like you've dealt a $22 Gallen for $13 Semien and reserve Tavares. Which isn't bad, but just doesn't feel like a big win to me. Given that other guy's keeper list, I think you need to get a pretty big win to pass him.

[cavebird]

So, this deal would get you to $100 in auction cash if my math is right. I went back to your first post and found the above - if you're right about undervalued players, that's where I'd be investing. I suspect those undervalued players aren't the elite studs coming back into auction. Given that you already have elite stud hitters in Freeman, Acuna, and Albies, my inclination would be to buy the undervalued, "sub-elite" players you referred to and then I think you could come out ahead in the deal. But if you spend $45 to get an elite hitter who might be a touch better than Bogaerts...then it's kinda like you've dealt a $22 Gallen for $13 Semien and reserve Tavares. Which isn't bad, but just doesn't feel like a big win to me. Given that other guy's keeper list, I think you need to get a pretty big win to pass him.

Good point. I admit there is part of me that wants to get the straight (I have 1 (Acuna) 2 (Albies) 3 (Freeman) and 5 (d'Arnaud) in the Braves lineup) but he'll probably go for way too much. Spreading it around it a better idea; I do still need a closer (and Ottovaino as a hand-cuff). If I do this deal, I could also keep Pablo Lopez at $6. I like him (I could keep him for $6 now, fwiw), but the $6 locked-in-lineup pitchers have a tendency to destroy your team in this league, so I am shying away--I'd rather draft him for $10 with the power to bench during a bad spell than keep for $6.

[chancellor]

Phew - I forgot about Pablo Lopez at 6. Yeah, if you do that deal, I'd definitely keep him, potential to be benched be damned. I really like the pitch mix changes he made last year and improvement in his change. BABIP is pretty normal, strand rate is low-normal, real improvement in K rate...this doesn't look like a guy you're going to have to worry about streakiness. And then you still go in with $94.

[Ken]

As an aside, can you lay out the rationale for keeping Bogaerts at $38 in this league? To me he looks like a non-keeper in a format where keepers are punished so harshly for injury time.