How much auction money is too little (i.e. do I need to do something different)?

[cavebird]

He was great last year, but can we trust that small of a sample size? That's my worry---his FB value was way high last year, and I can't believe it is that good, but his pitch mix is nice, and he's working on a curveball or slider.

[cavebird]

As an aside, can you lay out the rationale for keeping Bogaerts at $38 in this league? To me he looks like a non-keeper in a format where keepers are punished so harshly for injury time.

The harsh penalty is when they aren't playing and aren't on the IL---if they hit the IL, you can put them in an IL slot and replace them. High dollar keepers are common, especially this year because of high inflation. The danger is guys who get pounded or get sent down or just benched. With $300 auction budget, Bogaerts is a little under-valued, at least according to my program, before inflation.

[chancellor]

He was great last year, but can we trust that small of a sample size? That's my worry---his FB value was way high last year, and I can't believe it is that good, but his pitch mix is nice, and he's working on a curveball or slider.

There's some risk, but at $6, I'd be all over it. He developed a cutter last year, and turned it into pretty much a league average pitch by the end of the shortened season. And how many under 25 year old pitchers with quality stuff - which he has - are humble enough to say they need to develop another pitch to help them get through lineups 3 and 4 times? I like the tangibles - his stuff is solid, none of the numbers scream or even talk reversion, nice pitching park - but I'm really intrigued by the intangibles.

[cavebird]

There's some risk, but at $6, I'd be all over it. He developed a cutter last year, and turned it into pretty much a league average pitch by the end of the shortened season. And how many under 25 year old pitchers with quality stuff - which he has - are humble enough to say they need to develop another pitch to help them get through lineups 3 and 4 times? I like the tangibles - his stuff is solid, none of the numbers scream or even talk reversion, nice pitching park - but I'm really intrigued by the intangibles.

Oh, you don't have to convince me to like him---he's ended up on my roster for $1 for two years in a row now. I guess I might have to keep him now to get him cheaply. A shame. And a shame I wasted him last year with the rest of my staff being a complete disaster.

[cavebird]

Unfortunately, my earstwhile trading partner nixed the trade idea, so now he'd by my sixth SP and I couldn't even toss any SP all auction (which I planned on doing early and often with 5).

[cavebird]

Now I want to find a way to move a pitcher for fair value to keep Lopez. See how suggestable I am? (I really always wanted to, but with 5 of 6 slots already full, it is tough.)

[chancellor]

Unfortunately, my earstwhile trading partner nixed the trade idea, so now he'd by my sixth SP and I couldn't even toss any SP all auction (which I planned on doing early and often with 5).

So no Gallen/Bogaerts deal? Bummer...well, kinda. It's not like having Gallen and Bogaerts on your roster for $60 is a bad thing

[cavebird]

So no Gallen/Bogaerts deal? Bummer...well, kinda. It's not like having Gallen and Bogaerts on your roster for $60 is a bad thing

Exactly. I could just keep Lopez anyway and toss high dollar hitters---my max bid would be under $40, so it isn't like I could get any of them, lol.

[cavebird]

Now I may or may not have an offer of Aaron Hicks ($1/retained) for Zac Gallen ($22). I am tempted. Lets me keep Pablo Lopez for $6 and still have an SP slot open (to let me toss SP's if nothing else), gets a productive $1 hitter, takes an extra lineup slot out of play, and nets me $15 for auction. I am inclined to say yes if it becomes a real offer, but Hicks's average scares me a bit. Then again, my average is pretty good already, and Hicks batting third in New York should be a great supply of RBI and especially runs because his OBP is good.

[Ken]

Now I may or may not have an offer of Aaron Hicks ($1/retained) for Zac Gallen ($22). I am tempted. Lets me keep Pablo Lopez for $6 and still have an SP slot open (to let me toss SP's if nothing else), gets a productive $1 hitter, takes an extra lineup slot out of play, and nets me $15 for auction. I am inclined to say yes if it becomes a real offer, but Hicks's average scares me a bit. Then again, my average is pretty good already, and Hicks batting third in New York should be a great supply of RBI and especially runs because his OBP is good.

Aaron Hicks? You should be able to get a similar player for $1 at the auction, I don't see any reason to really keep one, much less trade for one.

[cavebird]

Interesting thought. I am curious why you think it. Most projections are in line for him---22 HR or so, 75-80 RBI, 75-80 Runs, 8 SB or so, .240, with his missing about 30 games. What other guys do you think would give that kind sure all around production I can get for a buck at auction---I'd love to find some with my low amount of money for the auction. Or do you think the projections are high for him?

[Ken]

Interesting thought. I am curious why you think it. Most projections are in line for him---22 HR or so, 75-80 RBI, 75-80 Runs, 8 SB or so, .240, with his missing about 30 games. What other guys do you think would give that kind sure all around production I can get for a buck at auction---I'd love to find some with my low amount of money for the auction. Or do you think the projections are high for him?

That projection is probably optimistic, he's had more than 52 RBI ONCE in an 8 year career, and more than 36 RBI just twice. Also, I'm not seeing 75-80 RBI for most projections, the range looks like 65 to 75.

He's not a top 250 player based on mixed league ADP, and once you get to that area the prices are pretty flat. He's what, a $5-6 player in the abstract? But in an auction setting where the start of the draft overpays dramatically, you typically see lots of $5-8 players go for a buck.

I'm hesitant to point out individual players as each one at the $1-$5 has it's flaws. Who do you see in that range such that Hicks is a huge upgrade?

[Bene Futuis]

Yeah, not into Aaron Hicks much at all, particularly getting rid of Gallen. Hicks has only even been above average once, three years ago. And Lopez isn't worth all that much, is he? Surely not enough to purposefully weaken your team in order to roster him. Get him for $2 in the end game if you like. Honestly, I'm not liking any of the trade proposals you've floated and far prefer what you already have.

[cavebird]

He's only played over 100 games twice in his career before, and one was a great season; add replacement level stats to what he gets for his DL stints, he looks good to me at least. Lopez goes for $10+ in our system (with 6 SP rostered on each team and SP's always with nutty prices and it is $300 with high inflation). I was probably keeping him whether or not a made a trade.

As for the projection being optimistic, it is more or less the projection of The Bat, ATC, and Steamer, although more like 70 RBI, which probably depends on where he actually (as opposed to projected to be) hits in the lineup.

EDIT: The similarities between Lopez and Gallen fascinate me. I think I will start a new post about them.

[Ken]

He's only played over 100 games twice in his career before[...] he looks good to me at least.

you lost me.

But if we're selling ocean front property, David Dahl may be your man!

IMO staying on the field is a very important skill in fantasy. We can't fill in the *what if* injury blanks too much.

If we're talking about trading away a solid pitcher I'm not sure why this is someone you'd want to get in return.