Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

NFBC Draft Champions - Big Tymers 2021 (#1)

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • NFBC Draft Champions - Big Tymers 2021 (#1)

    Ok, now that the bar has been unreasonably and unreachably set I'll embark on another year of the NFBC. Normally I wouldn't draft this early due to uncertain roles and the fact that ST hasn't started yet but figuring I'll do a few of these (and that I would prefer the slow drafts don't overlap) thought it best to get one underway.

    Top finishers last year came from all kinds of draft slots so when setting the KDS I basically went chalk. Ended up with pick #11. Not ideal but then probably doesn't matter as much as we think it does. What I do know is that the way I built my team LY was the way I liked to build teams and thus expect to do much of the same. I like to get speed & average early since it gets scarce and there tends to be power guys available later if you have the BA cushion. I also know you need a lot of pitching. I got lucky LY hitting on my top 4 starters (Giolito, Kershaw, Fried & Maeda) while also getting a lot of great arms later which you can never bank on (Kim, McKenzie, Davies). So one of my first 3 picks will be SP and ideally 3 of 5. UPDATE: Well, I'm a big proponent of taking what the draft gives you and as I look at the board after Round 2 I do not like the price of SP. Coming off a shortened season, there is a viable hypothesis that there will be less differentiation than normal with regards to SP as few pitchers if any may go over 200 innings and without volume I personally think there is less separation. Not to mention that this is an early draft and pitchers will get hurt - maybe more than ever before as innings ramp up. As such, I think I'm pivoting to going more offense early and then bulking up SP later.

    1st round before my pick went largely as expected with exception of Freeman. I "thought" I would have one of Yelich or Story left for me when I found out I was assigned the #11 pick but surprised I have the choice....

    4-Hour Clock btw.

    ROSTER:. Will list alternative positions for players who qualify at > 1 since positional flexibility is huge in a format like this
    C (start 2): W. Contreras, Stallings, Rutschman, Romine, Campusano
    1B: Hoskins, Santana, Pujols
    2B: Albies, Schoop, Brujan
    SS: Anderson, Fletcher (2B/SS/3B)
    3B: Suarez, Ruiz, N. Jones
    OF: Yelich, Harper, Robles, A. Garcia, Upton, Pache, G. Polanco, Marsh, Bleday, Lowe
    SP: Berrios, Luzardo, Urias, Kluber, Urquidy, May, Kim, D. Garcia, Severino, Martinez, Patino, Whitley, Webb, McHugh, J. Duran, Kirby, Gray
    CL/RP: Colome, Martin, Fairbanks, Clase, Wick, Workman, Stashak

    DRAFT BY ROUND:
    ROUND 1: Tatis, Soto, Acuna, Betts, Trout, Cole, deGrom, Bauer, Turner, Freeman, YELICH, Bieber, Ramirez, Story, Giolito
    ROUND 2: Buehler, Bellinger, Mondesi, Lindor, HARPER, Nola, Castillo, Darvish, Machado, Tucker, Scherzer, Woodruff, Flaherty, Bichette, Kershaw
    ROUND 3: Glasnow, LeMahieu, Bogaerts, Gallen, Arenado, Devers, Robert, Jimenez, Ozuna, Rendon, ALBIES, Bregman, Abreu, Merrifield, Maeda
    ROUND 4: Strasburg, Snell, Lynn, Alonso, ANDERSON, Realmuto, Plesac, Seager, Carrasco, Springer, Burnes, Marte, Grisham, Hendriks, Hader
    ROUND 5: Arozarena, Gray, Fried, Biggio, Judge, Baez, Lowe, Vlad, Hendricks, Torres, BERRIOS, Alvarez, Ryu, Voit, Lamet
    ROUND 6: Olsen, Conforto, A. Chapman, Marte, SUAREZ, Iglesias, McNeil, Cruz, Hiura, Castellanos, Diaz, Moncada, Valdez, Anderson, Martinez
    ROUND 7: Greinke, Goldschmidt, Gurriel, Wheeler, Karinchak, Paddack, Hernandez, Hand, Swanson, Blackmon, LUZARDO, Lewis, Bundy, Altuve, Lopez
    ROUND 8: Pressly, McCullers, Perez, Meadows, URIAS, E. Rosario, Smith (C), Semien, Rizzo, Buxton, Correa, Edman, Muncy, M. Chapman
    ROUND 9: Jansen, Stanton, D. Moore, Verdugo, Morton, Gausman, Corbin, Bohm, Moustakas, Alcantera, CONTRERAS, Villar, Franimal, Grandal, Pham
    ROUND 10: Hayes, Yates, Soler, Happ, ROBLES, Myers, Bell, Mahle, d'Arnaud, Hosmer, D. Smith, Sanchez, Bryant, Carlson, Brantley
    ROUND 11: Sant., Laureano, Yaz, Anderson, Solak, Kimbrel, Gregorius, Gimenez, Reyes, Marquez, COLOME, Taveras, Vazquez, Gallo, Williams
    ROUND 12: Frazier, Soroka, Keuchel, Montas, HOSKINS, Segura, Riley, Taillon, Smith, Murphy, Urshela, Nola, Gonzales, Civale, Sanchez
    ROUND 13: Cain, Rosenthal, Montero, Mancini, McKenzie, Eflin, RichRod, Schwarber, Bradley, Sano, KLUBER, Stroman, Kepler, Turner, Mountcastle
    ROUND 14: Margot, Price, Barnes, Sale, URQUIDY, Madrigal, Means, Varsho, Bassitt, Montgomery, McCann, McCutchen, Javier, Donaldson, Heaney
    ROUND 15: Manaea, ERod, Walsh, Bentintendi, Pineda, DeJong, Smyly, Pollock, Rogers, Garver, FLETCHER, Paxton, Taylor, Pomeranz, C. Walker
    ROUND 16: Yarbrough, Hicks, Wong, Holland, D. MAY, Eovaldi, Lux, Garrett, Kim (SD), McMahon, E. Hernandez, Kelenic, Singer, Tapia, Gurriel
    ROUND 17: Bard, Cronenworth, Dozier, Cabdelario, Grichuk, Hays, Anderson, Leclerc, Canha, Berti, KIM (STL), Neris, Pederson, Posey, Kirilloff
    ROUND 18: Kingery, Nimmo, Soria, Winker, SANTANA, Ohtani, Peralta, Haniger, Hicks, Seager, Pearson, Dunning, Polanco, Senzel, Escobar
    ROUND 19: Castillo, Kikuchi, Melancon, Dubon, Hampson, Kelly, K. Calhoun, Straw, Calhoun, Reynolds, SCHOOP, Diekman, France, Odorizzi, Wendle
    ROUND 20: Alfaro, Vaughn, Kiner-Falefa, Canning, A. GARCIA, Skubal, Bass, Gonsolin, Harvey, Rosario, Davis, Franco, Puig, Ramos, Kopech
    ROUND 21: Simmons, Tellez, Sheffield, Keller, Castro, German, C. Smith, Hernandez, Gallegos, Keller, MARTIN, Minor, Aguilar, Adames, Dahl
    ROUND 22: Gore, Eaton, Peterson, Walker, FAIRBANKS, Alzolay, Davies, Boyd, Ahmed, Castro, Lowe, Molina, Murphy, Lindblom, Goodrum
    ROUND 23: Hilliard, Jeffers, La Stella, Profar, Mize, Garcia, Gomes, Dalbec, Ray, Cordero, STALLINGS, Votto, Dickerson, Crichton, Jansen
    ROUND 24: Rojas, Howard, Naylor, Syndergaard, UPTON, Peralta, Pillar, Grossman, Dickerson, Cease, P. Severino, White, Mercado, Akiyama, Cron
    ROUND 25: Renfroe, Duvall, Narvaez, Nunez, Crawford, Lorenzen, Wainwright, Kirk, Andrus, Belt, D. GARCIA, Weaver, Hill, Quantrill, Moronta
    ROUND 26: Archer, Reyes, Britton, O'Neill, SEVERINO, Mikolas, Turnbull, Kike, Moran, B. Garcia, Adell, Iglesias, Stassi, Hoerner, Richards
    ROUND 27: Treinen, Ottavino, Desclafani, Diaz, Bradley Jr., Cooper, McGee, Galvis, Trevino, J. Hernandez, PACHE, Rodgers, Stephenson, Longoria, Solano
    ROUND 28: Bumgarner, Chisholm, Fleming, Urias, MARTINEZ, Heyward, Diaz, Torrens, Bader, Happ, Frazier, Antone, Flores, Rogers, Perez
    ROUND 29: Brosseau, Kieboom, Pagan, Wendelken, Sims, Jones, May, Staumont, Houser, Arcia, G. POLANCO, Piscotty, Houck, Olivares, Quinn
    ROUND 30: Crawford, Oliva, Ponce de Leon, Franco, CLASE, Kiermaier, Romo, Puk, Quintana, Choi, Cabrera, Stripling, Newman, Pivetta, Gonzalez,
    ROUND 31: Suzuki, Romano, Huff, Arihara, Shoemaker, Odor, Fuentes, Rios, Stewart, Caratini, RUTSCHMAN, Doolittle, Pinder, Bart. Arraez
    ROUND 32: Alberto, Tsutsugo, Brault, Cueto, RUIZ, Velasquez, Brubaker, Mills, Higashioka, Barnhart, Mullins, Graterol, Mazara, Gilbert, Gibson
    ROUND 33: Bubic, Castro, Soto, E. Cabrera, Rainey, Bote, Lucchesi, Shaw, M. Cabrera, Bummer, WICK, Mejia, Slater, Wood, Sisco
    ROUND 34: Wisler, Mayers, Wright, Davis, PATINO, Kremer, Valaika, Heim, Wacha, Dobnak, Barlow, Long, Kelly, Duffy, Desmond
    ROUND 35: A. Diaz, Scott, Manning, Wittgren, Maldonado, Choo, Downs, Locastro, Crochet, Andujar, MARSH, Folty, Tauchman, Osuna, Matz
    ROUND 36: Chavis, Wilson, Minter, Knizner, BRUJAN, Encarnacion, Bauers, Gonzalez, Matzek, Sandoval, Yang, Schmidt, Knebel, Duran, Taylor
    ROUND 37: Y. Sanchez, Fowler, A. Sanchez, Moreland, Alford, Akin, Suter, Lester, Casali, Barnes, N. JONES, Martin, Miller, Lynch, Stratton
    ROUND 38: Bruce, Jimenez, Cobb, Rodriguez, WHITLEY, Lopez, Lauer, Gray, Jung, Moore, Baez, Barria, Kela, Paredes, Freeland
    ROUND 39: Senzatela, Gordon, Fiers, Torkelson, Flexen, Rojas, Dolis, Lugo, Green, Stevenson, ROMINE, Garcia (HOU), Kuhl, Zunino, Rooker
    ROUND 40: Watson, Garcia (CHW), Plawecki, Ruiz, WORKMAN, Dunn, Urena, Garcia (WAS), Duffey, Ward, Morejon, Nunez, Voth, Gomber, Oberg
    ROUND 41: Hedges, Thomas, Evans, Jeffress, Tucker, Cave, Smith, Harrison, Loaisiga, Honeywell, PUJOLS, Diaz, Tejada, Hernandez, Kintzler
    ROUND 42: Middleton, Guzman, Rodon, Jefferies, BLEDAY, Perez, Inciarte, Arrieta, Darnach, Anderson, Paredes, Contreras, Ross, Hatch, Porcello
    ROUND 43: Givens, Carpenter, Herrera, James, Engel, Cody, Haseley, Zimmer, Norris, Rodriguez, WEBB, Hudson, Gardner, Acquino, Waters
    ROUND 44: Frazier, Fraley, Johnson, Marquez, MCHUGH, Knapp, Crick, Graveman, Gonzalez, Allen, Garcia, Hahn, Fulmer, Sawamura, Chirinos
    ROUND 45: Wade, Walls, Valdez, Trevino, Avila, Balazovic, Astudillo, Lopez, Camargo, Brinson, CAMPUSANO, Jones, Miley, McClanahan, Sierra
    ROUND 46: Hamilton, Helsley, Ruf, Hamels, J. LOWE, Souza, Petit, Mackay, Rogers, Greene, Trammell, Alvarado, Robertson, Abreu, Roark
    ROUND 47: Lyles, Yajure, De Leon, Witt Jr, Brown, Johnson, Fisher, Leon, Harrison, Marmolejos, J. DURAN, Ramos, Margevicius, Toro, Farmer
    ROUND 48: Swaggerty, Oviedo, Teheran, Ivey, KIRBY, Gant, Gallagher, Beede, Collins, Allen, Williams, Diaz, Ryan, Brogdon, Miller
    ROUND 49: Davis, Nido, Vosler, Ford, Cabrera, Kemp, Andriese, McCormick, Lamb, Kaprielian, STASHAK, Garrett, Chatwood, Gennett, Lewis
    ROUND 50: SWR, Merryweather, Young, Cespedes, GRAY, Kowar, Allard, Santana, Strahm, Ginkel, Owings, Heuer, Barager, Lowrie, Anderson


    PICK COMMENTARY: Will add commentary here vs. posts to make this easier to read / follow
    ROUND 1: Why the hell not. Shooting for upside here as normally I'd go SS for those that know me. But Yelich "should" bounce back from whatever that 2020 season was and the upside of those 2018-19 #'s are too much to ignore. Story, Yelich or Jose Ramirez all provide similar skill sets so in hindsight I kind of wish I picked a bit later but both Story & Ramirez will be entering the season a bit defeated already with their teams having traded away superstars and so all have some concerns.
    ROUND 2: Love me some Bryce Harper. Always have, always will. Between him and Yelich I have power for days and 35ish bags. Who knows on average but each has had multiple 300+ seasons and as Shandler says....
    ROUND 3: As I indicated above, this would normally be where I'd consider SP but this draft there was none worthy imo so I'll be altering my SP strategy. Albies, Tim Anderson & Seager were all considered and its splitting hairs imo. But give me Albies who I still don't think has peaked. Tim Anderson was my 2nd preference as again I want SBs early, not rabbits but 5-cat guys, to give me flexibility later.
    ROUND 4: Well, glad I went Albies as Timmy was still there for me. Almost overthought this and went Realmuto as he's beyond his max ADP and is great value but I want to solidify my offense further and Anderson gives me a bit of everything except for RBIs which I can get later. I do think Cs are important in NFBC so will get a top-10 one but d'Arnaud or Will Smith are likely more my style a few rounds later.
    ROUND 5: Bit over ADP but this early in draft season who cares. Berrios can absolutely be a fantasy #1 even if that K rate doesn't tick up and if it does....
    ROUND 6: Was very tempted by Luzardo but looking ahead there are likely to be comparable players to him (if not him exactly) with my next pick. Suarez on the other hand is the best player on the board and boosts up my RBIs from early picks in Anderson & Albies. Right or wrong, I'm finding perceived safety in bats with my top picks - likely a function of this draft being pre-ST but also with IP uncertainty all around.
    ROUND 7: My pitching staff is starting to look like my dynasty team - probably not ideal but at least I'm consistent. Almost took Luzardo last round so 20+ picks later pretty easy call. Might go C next round if Sal is there (maybe Will Smith) but Urias is who I am hoping falls to me (again, just like my dynasty team.....)
    ROUND 8: Easy call as Sal Perez & McCullers were gone but likely would have gone Urias regardless. Draft skills not roles and imo he will earn well above this draft slot. With 3 young SP now in the fold I should have more flexibility from here to go after value in next few rounds.
    ROUND 9: 2C league, 15 teams. Quick math says C is very, very scarce. Grabbing 2 strong ones LY paid off well so will abide by that approach again and take the best catcher left on the board in Contreras. Not super compelled by other options so TBD which direction I go with next pick....
    ROUND 10: So I looked back at my draft LY and Victor Robles was taken in the 4th round. This is the 10th. He's 23 going into his 24 season. Is there risk? Yes. Is there upside? Most definitely. SBs provide a nice floor but I still believe a breakout is coming eventually for this former top prospect.
    ROUND 11: I hate the Saves category. But it counts so at some point need to address it. There are SO many unsettled roles this year and other cases where a guy is penciled in but questionable to hold the role. So I'll take the guy who's done it, who's never been bad in the 9th, who is RH to the LH incumbent, who has good history with the coach in TB and who had the option to sign in a lot of places but chose MIN with likely a soft promise to close.
    ROUND 12: A few weeks of ST will either make this pick look great or bad. From all accounts, he's recovering well from non-throwing elbow surgery but his ADP is offering a discount. Even if he misses time, I can plan for this by drafting and extra 1B so will continue to solidify my core offense albeit with more BA risk that I will have to consider. But, BA has so much volatility I'm comfortable with where I am right now too.
    ROUND 13: **Yankee fan disclaimer** $11M is a lot for a "prove it" deal which tells me that workout was pretty impressive. Fool me once...fool me twice....oh wait....but, I'm betting on a rebound as if nothing else he's rested
    ROUND 14: Ok, pitching staff is coming together. I have a bias to pitchers on good teams so that continues with Urquidy out of Houston. Not sexy, but like him as my 5th SP. Likely to continue to pound SP in next few rounds.
    ROUND 15: So if positional flexibility is so important, how come none of the players drafted so far have it? Excellent question and enter David Fletcher. Fletcher or Chris Taylor were both considered here but went with Fletcher for following reasons: (a) BA - I can use Fletcher to pair with a lower BA slugger later to Frankenstein 2 spots to the more balanced profile I like, (b) he's leading off, (c) Taylor has more PT uncertainty. C to me is most important as "if" there is no DH in the NL this year then all the projection systems out there are wrong on ABs for NL players. They'll adjust but they haven't yet.
    ROUND 16: So I've been playing a game of chicken for a few rounds with May. Not sure if I won, or lost...but I have him as I did LY. I like the idea of handcuffing SPs if you will in NFBC and having taken Urias earlier this gives me a bit of comfort. I do think LA and really all teams will use a lot of SPs this year so while May won't get more than 130 IP likely they should be really good innings and I can plan around that.
    ROUND 17: Had Kim LY and really not sure why his ADP isn't much higher. He's the only LHP in the STL rotation and slots as #2 right now so very secure. Its a great division to pitch in and their defense just got a lot better with Arenado. Older and perhaps teams will have a better scouting report now but as my #7 SP, sign me up.
    ROUND 18: Big(ish) contract, improving lineup. BA LY was scary but likelier outcome is somewhere between 2019 and 2020 so figure .250 with 22/80/80. Ok - I can work with that.
    ROUND 19: Had my eye on a number of guys but 1 by 1 they fell. But Schoop can hit bombs - both in real life and in MLB The Show (silver, gold or diamond card). Would have preferred an OF but no value there so will take my 25 HRs from the MI position and look to bulk up OFs in the next 10 picks and with prospects. Meanwhile, still need to find some saves at some point too....
    ROUND 20: Brewers are paying him $10M for 2021 and quick glance at 2019 (and years before that) speak to a guy who can hit for a decent average, steal a few bases and hit about 20 HRs. Seems about right at this stage of the draft.
    ROUND 21: I've said I hate the Saves category already right? So Melancon signing in SD is interesting as I guess I always figured he'd end up back in ATL. I really don't see the Braves signing or trading for anyone else after all the $ shelled out for Ozuna (Liberty Media is cheap) so Saves will come from in-house options most likely. They have 3 Lefties in the pen (Smith, Matzek & Minter) so it very well "could" be Smith but he wasn't great LY and Chris Martin is their best RH reliever. Thus, I'll speculate here.
    ROUND 22: Doubling down on speculative saves guys I like. His ADP has a wide range (someone grabbed him at 258???) so this way I feel much better about my Saves chances as TB will be splitting the saves and they trusted Fairbanks in the playoffs which speaks volumes. They traded Nick Solak for him as well a few years back so clearly they like him a lot. I'm expecting ~10ish saves with a high K/9 and serviceable ratios.
    ROUND 23: Stallings is a great #2 catcher in this format imo. He's very strong defensively so will stay on the field and there is no one pushing him in the system. So I've just been waiting for the market in this league to start shifting to catchers and as more and more came off the board I felt time was now to grab him. .250 with ~45-50 RBIs/Runs and a chip in 10 HRs sounds about right.
    ROUND 24: I don't think Upton is quite as bad as 2019-2020 shows so here's hoping for the old dead cat bounce. Projections all seem encouraging and as my 5th OF and last position player filled you can't expect someone without some level of risk.
    ROUND 25: Call it a hedge for Kluber. Call it Yankee homer. Call it a bad pick? Not sure on the third one but he is the Yankee's top pitching prospect and Yankee staff is full of question marks. "Hoping" to grab Severino next but we'll see...
    ROUND 26: Ok - grabbed Severino. I don't think we'll see him until late July or Aug as Yankees try and prep him for playoffs but I'll take ~10 good starts over my other options.
    ROUND 27: His glove will keep him in CF but can he hit enough? That's the question but as an extra OF I'd rather roll the dice to find out vs. other options available.
    ROUND 28: Carlos Martinez....not even sure where to start with this guy but love his division and we have seen him be really good before. Cardinals do not have a deep rotation so consider this a dart throw and as my 10th SP it feels ok and there's always the nonzero chance he closes again...
    ROUND 29: I remember when this guy was one of the top-10 prospects in baseball. What is it with Pittsburgh and nice things...Anywho, its not like they have anyone better to run out there so as my extra-extra OF maybe that broken wrist he sustained won't hurt him too much. Sure....
    ROUND 30: After a year on the naughty list, we'll finally see what the Indians got for Kluber in 2021. Kid throws 100 with a nasty sinker. Call me intrigued.
    ROUND 31: Will the Orioles bring him up? I think he forces their hand by midseason and if so is a great C3 as he becomes an immediate starter. If not, at least he's a fun dream.
    ROUND 32: Getting to the point of the draft where you want potential for current or future ABs. Ruiz offers current and its the Orioles so let's face it, probably future as well. BA drain but if he's playing in my lineup I have bigger concerns to worry about than his BA....
    ROUND 33: Craig Kimbrel is not good.
    ROUND 34: It's TB so far all I know they slow roll him as his command was way off LY. But, top prospect and they will want to show they got something in return for Snell so worth a shot at this point.
    ROUND 35: (a) I like Brandon Marsh, (b) he plays strong defense, (c) Justin Upton will probably get hurt, (d) Dexter Fowler is bad. A + B + C + D = picking Brandon Marsh. It's math.
    ROUND 36: Anyone in leagues with me knows I like prospects. Guilty. But at this stage of a 50 round draft & hold I would much prefer betting on someone who could impact half a season vs. another player who might get in a few ABs each week. Nolan Jones was also considered but I'll go with Brujan and hope Jones makes it back (not likely).
    ROUND 37: It you love something then let it go and if it comes back to you its meant to be. Nolan Jones came back to me.
    ROUND 38: An apparent head case with arm troubles LY. Where do I sign? But, he is a former top prospect and on a good team who could very well need SP. So....
    ROUND 39: Handcuff
    ROUND 40: Craig Kimbrel is not good.
    ROUND 41: Was looking at Cole Tucker then he got picked. Was looking at Honeywell then he got picked. Not sure anyone besides me was looking at Pujols...
    ROUND 42: Marlins have always been willing to promote aggressively and so I think we'll see Bleday at some point. Not sure he's an impact guy but worth a shot this late.
    ROUND 43: This was 642 and prior to this Logan Webb's ADP (2/7 to 2/19) was 548 with a max of 591. He's also on one of my dynasty teams. Is he any good? Meh, but it's value and he's a real SP so good enough.
    ROUND 44: Collin McHugh went to Providence Christian Academy. My kids go to Providence Christian Academy. Collin's cousin is my son's baseball coach. Does this make McHugh good? No, but does make me want to root for him.
    ROUND 45: Because taking 1 prospect catcher just wasn't enough
    ROUND 46: This is around his ADP and I could use a lottery ticket in the OF. Not really sure he gets much time if any this year.
    ROUND 47: I like Balazovic better but someone else apparently did as well so taking the next best thing. Twins staff is going to need reinforcements. Just not sure who it will be.
    ROUND 48: Don't think Kirby will be up much if at all this year but at this point why not.
    ROUND 49: I like Stashak and gives me a RH reliever in MIN to back up Colome.
    ROUND 50: Another Dodger pitching prospect. #potcommitted

    CLOSING THOUGHTS POST-DRAFT:
    Ok - bottom of the draft order has problems for SP as it forces you to reach in Round 2 or be a bit against the wall in building a staff. Lot of "ifs" needed for this SP staff to work but its deeper than I had last year with enough dart throws that maybe one or 2 hit. Feel good about my offense and depth across positions. Good balance of power & speed though BA could go either way. Kind of need Anderson & Fletcher to post 300+ and get some favorable outcomes in BA from guys like Yelich/Harper,Albies who we have seen post both good and bad numbers in seasons past. Not sure I have even 1 FT closer but then I'm not sure how many FT closers there even are this year. But I do think I have 3 guys who will get 10+ saves (Colome/Martin/Fairbanks) and took some positions in the Cubs bullpen which to me is likely one to turn over as (a) if Kimbrel is bad they will switch and (b) if Kimbrel is somehow good and carries over the Sept stats then they'll look to dump him in trade. Either way, I think someone else will close games at some point this year in the northside. Overall, happy with the team given the SP pivot I had to make but really hoping to get an earlier slot in my next draft so I can grab someone like Woodruff, Castillo or Flaherty to have atop the staff.

    RUNNING TOTALS FROM ROTOLAB IN TERMS OF COUNTING AND RATE STATS:
    BA = .262
    HR = 334
    R = 1161
    RBI = 1043
    SB = 123

    W = 78
    S = 32
    K = 1121
    ERA = 3.78
    WHIP =1.21
    Last edited by Big Tymer; 02-21-2021, 05:38 PM.

  • #2
    Ok - quick thoughts after first 6 picks. I'm a little uncomfortable with waiting on SP but do believe its a very viable approach to early drafts so we'll see how I feel after the next 6 picks where I will need to hit this position hard. Closer situation is atrocious this year which would have tempted me to consider one in Rd 6 but thankfully my league mates didn't give me that option with the only 3 I'd consider off the board. Think this is very much a year where a lot of teams will intentionally rotate the 9th and the others will still rotate but based on performance vs. choice. Very fluid.

    So, let's talk about offense. Got speed. Got power. Got average (enough at least imo). Got the 3 key IF positions filled (I punted on 1B LY and will do the same TY) as well as 2 OF slots. Love the foundation I built as I have my team down for 70 SBs already and thus can be flexible from here with best players that fall to me vs. trying to find categories.

    Berrios while not a traditional #1 "can" become one I think but doesn't need to for his 5th round price tag to pay off. Most sites have him in that 20-25 rank range and I'm probably a bit higher than that but overall that works. Just need to surround him with a lot of depth with bias towards continuing to look for upside plays. In a perfect world my 7th and 8th round picks will be some combination of Urias, Luzardo, Anderson, Wheeler, Morton and maybe Corbin.

    Comment


    • #3
      I don't really like the strategy of waiting on pitching that long, it puts you behind the 8 ball in all 5 pitching cats...you might be able to work on ratios, but the other cats are going to be tough unless you pound closers.
      Don't forget that there's already talk about moving Urias to the pen to a somewhat Haderish role...he could excel there.

      You'll obviously kill on offense though...
      "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake."
      - Napoleon Bonaparte (1769-1821)

      "Your shitty future continues to offend me."
      -Warren Ellis

      Comment


      • #4
        Yeah - Urias is a wildcard but at some point they need to turn him loose. I think a lot of teams will use 6 SPs consistently this year so still think he gets 120-140 IP but agree there is risk. But I don't see them making him a FT reliever as its wasting his talent and they have a strong pen unlike MIL so what they need to do is walk away from Price as he's unreliable and quit on them LY. Gonsolin, May & Urias are too good to not get innings.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Big Tymer View Post
          Yeah - Urias is a wildcard but at some point they need to turn him loose. I think a lot of teams will use 6 SPs consistently this year so still think he gets 120-140 IP but agree there is risk. But I don't see them making him a FT reliever as its wasting his talent and they have a strong pen unlike MIL so what they need to do is walk away from Price as he's unreliable and quit on them LY. Gonsolin, May & Urias are too good to not get innings.
          Anyone who opted out last season due to COVID-19 didn't quit. People were making decisions with only a few months of data available. I have a buddy struggling with the illness right now, and his dad, mom and sister all caught it. I have a friend whose 31 year old son died last fall, after contracting COVID-19. I typically enjoy your posts and love the commentary in this draft thread...but anyone who wasn't willing to put their life and/or their families lives in jeopardy, in order to play a game for money they don't really need, is far from a quitter.
          2021 Auction Anatomy
          2021 Keeper Decisions
          2020 Auction Anatomy
          2020 Pre-Auction
          2015 Auction Anatomy
          2014 Auction Anatomy
          2011 Auction Anatomy

          RotoJunkie Posts: 4,314
          RotoJunkie Join Date: Jun 2001
          Location: U.S.A.

          Comment


          • #6
            Back to baseball....I found myself in a similar circumstance in the RJ subscriber draft #1 in the 13th slot. Kept seeing far too much value in hitting vs. the pitching. Just as a preview of what the top of your team might look like, i went Freeman, Mondesi, Eloy, Ozuna with Plesac and Berrios after.

            SP ended up as Plesac, Berrios, Ian Anderson, Alcantara, Keuchel, Stroman, Urquidy.

            Dont love it but have to trust your reads, right

            Comment


            • #7
              I really like the players you got in the first 6 rounds and it's a heck of a start to an offense. But your AVG isn't great and so now you're chasing all of the pitching categories AND average which can be a tough position to be in. Having lots of power and speed will make things a little easier.

              I really don't trust Corbin. I do agree that after the first dozen or so SPs, everyone could end up in the 150ip range, so maybe there's less differentiation in the next few tiers.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by ThatRogue View Post
                Anyone who opted out last season due to COVID-19 didn't quit. People were making decisions with only a few months of data available. I have a buddy struggling with the illness right now, and his dad, mom and sister all caught it. I have a friend whose 31 year old son died last fall, after contracting COVID-19. I typically enjoy your posts and love the commentary in this draft thread...but anyone who wasn't willing to put their life and/or their families lives in jeopardy, in order to play a game for money they don't really need, is far from a quitter.
                My bad. My whole family had COVID but agree each situation is different.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Wow, that's a ton of pitchers early in a draft. I like the zigging while others zag. I like the strategy, I think I just have different opinions on players than you and would have gone with other hitters most rounds and definitely a different pitcher than Berrios. I do think, however, you made the absolutely correct choice in Albies in round 3---second base is a wasteland compared to SS.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Yeah - this is a weird group in the room as one guy went 5 SPs with first 5 picks. You can't force picks so the zag is what it is. Will be interesting to see how this continues to play out.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Bump for the updates.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Thanks Andy! We're in the mid-30 rounds so basically dart throw territory as most of these guys from here on out aren't likely to contribute. Feel like I've built enough depth to chase some kids who I expect to debut in 2021 but hard to say. Would like another IF bat and of course more SPs but no certainties from here.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Wow...Deivi Garcia and Severino in 25/26 sure look like steals to me.
                          I'm just here for the baseball.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by chancellor View Post
                            Wow...Deivi Garcia and Severino in 25/26 sure look like steals to me.
                            Not too far from where they normally go actually.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Agree. Its crazy how much ADP governs placement even when you realize that the # of leagues drafted is often < 5 when you control for time frames as I do (I try and look at most recent 2 week window and refresh). Some self-fulfilling bias there for sure. I mainly gauge it for guys I want and try and make sure they start to be in my consideration set when they get to their "MIN" selection in most recent drafts and certainly when they get to close to average. Then, I just focus on my needs and what positions I want to fill vs. guys I'm willing to wait on.

                              For Deivi & Severino, I wanted to pair them even though I know it actually doesn't reduce risk since Sevy is out until July and we don't even know if Deivi will be good (or at least better than LY). But we know the Yankees will win games so imo I like having more shares of SPs on good teams. I'm also a Yankee fan so there is that...

                              FWIW: Since 2/5 Deivi's range is 294 to 377 and Severino's is 379 to 498 so I was probably around the average for Deivi but then jumped Severino as I was willing to bear the risk as I'm of the belief Yankees will need him for postseason so will get him throwing on the regular come July/August

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X