Rotojunkies NFBC Draft Championship League #1 Picks And Commentary

[Ken]

Fantasy Pros projections (using entire roster):

Lux pix in 15th/14th there. And other numbers had him 1st by a good margin. Wow, these things are all over the place. I guess I'm happy being consistently top 5.

[Todd Zola]

Apparently Zola's sheet really doesn't like Spencer Turnbull. I just replaced Turnbull in my lineup with Miles Mikolas and my team went from 8th to 3rd.

I just profiled Turnbull and have somewhat improved my outlook. That said, he's exactly the kind of guy why I care nothing about draft standings. Turnbull is all about control so he can take better advantage of his excellent spin rates. Plus, he's a streamer, you won't have the poorer matchups active, but I digress.

[Bene Futuis]

Wow, these things are all over the place.

Lol, yep. So easy a monkey could do it!

[Pauly]

was sure projections would hate that I would need my middle-round pitchers to outperform them. But I am pretty sure all projection systems are putting way too much weight on a 60-game season.

Is there an easy way to run these draft results through last year's projections? Just curious how it changes.

[joncarlos]

Thanks JC - what's the projection source? Whatever it is, I didn't use it, so I'm pretty happy to come out ~top 5ish without using those numbers.

Zola's mastersball google sheet

[joncarlos]

I just profiled Turnbull and have somewhat improved my outlook. That said, he's exactly the kind of guy why I care nothing about draft standings. Turnbull is all about control so he can take better advantage of his excellent spin rates. Plus, he's a streamer, you won't have the poorer matchups active, but I digress.

He's a big seam-shifted wake guy. Which is a thing I understand about 5 percent of.

From Eno's article (https://theathletic.com/2337324/2021...eper-pitchers/)

One of those players was Spencer Turnbull, who might have the best fastballs to help illustrate the effect seam-shifted wake can have. Turnbull throws a four-seamer and a two-seamer that have the same spin axis on BaseballSavant’s new spin axis illustrator. They don’t move the same, at all, and that provides some deception to the hitter. Here, Turnbull throws the four-seam (red) and the two-seam (orange) to a similar starting location, but where the two pitches end up befuddles Christian Yelich.

Apparently Pablo Lopez and Frankie Montas are also on the list (which I didn't know, or had forgotten) so now I guess I know what I should name my team.

[The Feral Slasher]

He's a big seam-shifted wake guy. Which is a thing I understand about 5 percent of.

From Eno's article (https://theathletic.com/2337324/2021...eper-pitchers/)



Apparently Pablo Lopez and Frankie Montas are also on the list (which I didn't know, or had forgotten) so now I guess I know what I should name my team.

Spenblokie Lobulltas ?

[Sour Masher]

Apparently Zola's sheet really doesn't like Spencer Turnbull. I just replaced Turnbull in my lineup with Miles Mikolas and my team went from 8th to 3rd.

With all due deference to the many who are down on Turnbull, I like him. His manager has said he has TOR stuff many times, if he ever learns to trust his stuff more and command his pitches better (of course that could be said for many who never realize their potential). There are scouts that have backed that up saying he has ace stuff. The team believes in him and is going to give him every chance, so unless he totally implodes he will get the chances.

Will he realize his max potential? Probably not, and yes, his superficial numbers were better than the underlying numbers last year, but there is ceiling here. In an age where nearly every guy with obvious upside is no longer a sleeper, because there is so much good info out there, Turnbull is one of the few real sleepers out there--a guy no one is touting that does have a path, albeit a narrow one, to big profit. If we were doing our bold predictions this year, I'd project him for 175/175 (that IP count would be rare this year) guy with 10 wins, a sub 4 era, and a sub 1.3 whip. I wouldn't reach much for him, but at his current ADP there is more reward than risk.

[The Feral Slasher]

If I were to do this again I wouldn't wait 5 or 6 rounds to draft a pitcher. I spent so much effort trying to catch up in pitching that I neglected to notice my lack of infield depth. It was fun and a good learning experience

[Bene Futuis]

I think pitchers will be more important than ever this year, given how carefully teams are sure to manage their rotations and pens. We were already headed in this direction but we won't see a lot of workhorses, imo. More like a slew of 4-5 inning guys backed by good long relievers and deep bullpens.

[BuckyBuckner]

Having done a bunch of these in the past I wanted to target two stud pitchers. I did that last year and came in second by a few points. That's why I like to grab the 15th spot. My offense suffered a bit cause of it. That could be in part of my fly by the seat of pants approach beyond drafting two pitchers.

[Ken]

Having done a bunch of these in the past I wanted to target two stud pitchers. I did that last year and came in second by a few points. That's why I like to grab the 15th spot. My offense suffered a bit cause of it. That could be in part of my fly by the seat of pants approach beyond drafting two pitchers.

Wouldn't the middle of the draft work better for that? I think I'd rather have a Cole/DeGrom/Bieber in the first and maybe Nola in the 2nd and a stronger 3rd round bat rather than Darvish/Buehler

[joncarlos]

If I were to do this again I wouldn't wait 5 or 6 rounds to draft a pitcher. I spent so much effort trying to catch up in pitching that I neglected to notice my lack of infield depth. It was fun and a good learning experience

It's an approach that can work in theory, but requires you to really pound pitching in the middle rounds, and this year I'm not really excited about those pitchers.

[Pauly]

was sure projections would hate that I would need my middle-round pitchers to outperform them. But I am pretty sure all projection systems are putting way too much weight on a 60-game season.

Is there an easy way to run these draft results through last year's projections? Just curious how it changes.

Oh yeah...I forgot I drafted Adell and Franco on this team, which, coupled with the lack of top tier pitchers, automatically means projections will make it last place.

I will note that Although I love Adell, taking two guys like that is not a strategy I would take in a serious league.

It will be fun to revisit the projections mid and late season.

[BuckyBuckner]

Wouldn't the middle of the draft work better for that? I think I'd rather have a Cole/DeGrom/Bieber in the first and maybe Nola in the 2nd and a stronger 3rd round bat rather than Darvish/Buehler

Probably. I like have a pick at the turn. Part of that reason is the NFBC draft I do is when we are in Arizona for the First Pitch forum during the Fall League and we draft 23 rounds there and pick up again in January and the 15th slot gets the first pick in January. That can be really valuable when we have a better idea of what rosters look like. So I'm used to doing it that way.