RJ NFBC entry

[Ken]

First, I dont pretend to be the smartest guy in the room, and I tend to think that dudes who want to spend 1K on a team know more than me.

Ah, not interested in this concept really - there are a lot of high $ contests that don't have pitchers in the top 4 too, so I dont want to look at 1 or 2 contests and jump to conclusions. Besides, there's a lot of smart people here. If there's a reason that pitchers should go earlier, we should be able to dig into it, not just outsource.

I think that this essentially comes down to the old scarcity concept, right? There are how many pitchers projected for 200 IP? Steamer says 2. Sure, Bieber or Bauer or 1 or 2 other guys can hit 200 IP with potentially the same quality as DeGrom Cole (which eliminates the German Maquez types), but taking DeGrom/Cole clearly puts you further ahead of the competition than if you took, say Mike Trout, especially when you are competing for an overall.

OK great, there's a concept worth digging into! I'm on board if you want to go down this route and we can come to some conclusions from it.

This isn't a new thing though, IP have been going down for several years, did top SP actually earn more in the last few years than prior? Did they earn more such that they should be prioritized over the high end 5 category guys?

[Pauly]

OK great, there's a concept worth digging into! I'm on board if you want to go down this route and we can come to some conclusions from it.

This isn't a new thing though, IP have been going down for several years, did top SP actually earn more in the last few years than prior? Did they earn more such that they should be prioritized over the high end 5 category guys?

OK...Im just using the fangraphs auction caluclator using steamer (without weighting hitting over pitching), here are your best performing players on dollar value (I threw out the short season but we can look at that as well if you want):

2019
Verlander (223 IP): $42.8
Cole (212 IP): 39.1
Acuna: 38.4
Yelich: 38.2
Bellinger: 37.3
...
DeGrom (204 IP, third pitcher): 27.1

2018
Betts: 44.3
Yelich: 44.2
JD Martinez: 44.0
DeGrom (217 IP): 38.9
Jose Ramirez: 38.9
Scherzer (220 IP): 37.1
Lindor: 37
Verlander (214 IP): 35.6
(I think the happy ball is a huge influence on this season)

2017
Blackmon: 44.5
Kluber (203 IP): 44.4
Stanton: 42.1
Judge: 40.2
Scherzer (200 IP): 38.1


So in conclusion, the elite echelon of pitchers tends to more consistently produce ROI (I believe most if not all of these pitchers were preseason top 3), where hitters are more variable unless there is a happy fun ball, and even then, that makes the pitchers even more valuable in the real world because there are so many more great hitters.

[Ken]

So in conclusion, the elite echelon of pitchers tends to more consistently produce ROI (I believe most if not all of these pitchers were preseason top 3), where hitters are more variable unless there is a happy fun ball, and even then, that makes the pitchers even more valuable in the real world because there are so many more great hitters.

I'm not getting the same conclusion from those numbers. Mainly because the information in parenthesis is not correct.

In 2019, the top 3 pitchers taken were Scherzer, DeGrom, and Sale. They returned $20, $27, and $5. Verlander was a 2nd round pick. Cole was also a 2nd round pick.

In 2018, as you noted, the hitters dominated. (Kershaw was taken in the top 5, DeGrom and Verlander were 3rd round picks)

In 2017, Kluber was a 2nd round pick, Scherzer was end of the 1st.

It seems like the data you are using to support the idea of taking a pitcher extremely early is telling you to do the opposite and take one in the 2nd.

[Pauly]

I'm not getting the same conclusion from those numbers. Mainly because the information in parenthesis is not correct.

In 2019, the top 3 pitchers taken were Scherzer, DeGrom, and Sale. They returned $20, $27, and $5. Verlander was a 2nd round pick.

In 2018, as you noted, the hitters dominated.

In 2017, Kluber was a 2nd round pick, Scherzer was end of the 1st.

It seems like the data you are using to support the idea of taking a pitcher extremely early is telling you to do the opposite and take one in the 2nd.

You are right, but I think it still proves the assertion that the upper echelon pitchers return more on investment, no? I can see it both ways, believe me...I flip flop on what I want to do with my first pick hourly it seems. But applying it to this coming season, going back to my original assertion, is that there are very few pitchers who are projected to even pitch enough innings to accumulate the stats needed to be in the upper echelon (4-6 maybe?), so this year might be the most top heavy in that regard - ie scarcity. My disadvantage is I dont remember/didnt look up the ADPs in the earlier years.

If you are picking Nola or Flaherty or maybe Scherzer in the second round as your ace, they could totally pan out. It just seems less likely than Machado or Bo Bichette returning first round value imo.

ETA: return on investment is the wrong terminology. It should be total return or something.

[Ken]

You are right, but I think it still proves the assertion that the upper echelon pitchers return more on investment, no? I can see it both ways, believe me...I flip flop on what I want to do with my first pick hourly it seems. But applying it to this coming season, going back to my original assertion, is that there are very few pitchers who are projected to even pitch enough innings to accumulate the stats needed to be in the upper echelon (4-6 maybe?), so this year might be the most top heavy in that regard - ie scarcity. My disadvantage is I dont remember/didnt look up the ADPs in the earlier years.

If you are picking Nola or Flaherty or maybe Scherzer in the second round as your ace, they could totally pan out. It just seems less likely than Machado or Bo Bichette returning first round value imo.

ROI is something we can calculate, we don't have to guess. We can apply $ values to each draft slot and look at the ROI for pitchers and hitters over the last few years. Not hard to do - I won't be doing that today but I can do it later as a project.

From glancing over the data, I believe we'll see that the ROI on those pitchers is negative, at least the ones who have been taken in the 1st round, and even more so for those early on.

[whalewang]

We want people who are all-in for this...you dont sound sure....

I'm sure. However, I lack in deep knowledge in the AL because I typically don't play mixed but it sounds fun and I'm active and competitive. I want to make sure it's good fit for both sides.

[Pauly]

I'm sure. However, I lack in deep knowledge in the AL because I typically don't play mixed but it sounds fun and I'm active and competitive. I want to make sure it's good fit for both sides.

Well...the beauty of this is that we have 4 hours to make every pick, which is PLENTY of time to research every barrel rate of every AL player imaginable

So, if you like participating in arguments like the above (on our slack channel) because it will help you in future drafts, and you wont bail out after draft day and help with start/sit decisions on Mondays and Fridays in-season, then welcome! just PM me your email address and I will add you to the slack.

[Captain Hook]

Sorry guys but I am going to have to withdraw from being involved on Slack during the draft (work situation). Glad to contribute here if you want my input

[Pauly]

Sorry guys but I am going to have to withdraw from being involved on Slack during the draft (work situation). Glad to contribute here if you want my input

Bummer...Slack is key to this process because it is an open chat, and you get the notifications so we dont miss a pick. Not sure that's possible just using this thread.

You sure you cant just use slack on your phone during work hours?

[Ken]

Sorry guys but I am going to have to withdraw from being involved on Slack during the draft (work situation). Glad to contribute here if you want my input

I mean, we don't HAVE to use slack... I'd rather have real-time communication though, I wonder if there is a middle ground

[whalewang]

Four hours for our picks? That might turn out to be a minimal issue if we have picks queued up.

[Pauly]

OK...last call to join in on this. We have 5 guys: myself, Ken, revo, DMT and whalewang who are in. Happy to get one more voice into the chat.

We want to start at some point this week.

Again, we use slack as the primary means of communication and there will be lots of time spent "slacking off" during this draft (Slack is so appropriately named). We'd want you to be passionate about your opinions, participate a ton, and help out after the draft on lineup decisions.

reply if you are interested.

Team: Are we all good with jumping into the next 4-hour draft on Wednesday maybe?