First Pitch Arizona Speakers Draft

[Todd Zola]

I think this is our third year doing this, Greg Ambrosius sets up a DC league for some of the First Pitch Arizona speakers. We play it out under standard NFBC 15-team, 50 player rules.

I drew 1.10

1.10 Trevor Story
2.21 Lucas Giolito

Very happy with Story, wish a different arm made it to 2.21, but I don't want to push my SP1 to R3 with this group.

Six SP went consecutively starting with the second pick in Round 2: Nola, Bauer, Buehler, Darvish, Giolito, Woodruff. The Big-3 went in the first round.

Discuss.

[Bene Futuis]

Both picks seem to be about value based on ADP. The second tier of pitchers seems to be a really large one: on top of the six SP you mention, I'd throw Scherzer, Castillo, and Flaherty in there, too. If he's available in round 3 in this format, I'm grabbing Castillo and running. I like Woodruff a lot but not at that price. I'm kind of shocked how up everyone is on Yu Darvish.

[Bene Futuis]

NFBC ADP for pitchers in the top three rounds(ish):

1	 Gerrit Cole	NYY	P	6.57	1	15		143		
2	 Jacob deGrom	NYM	P	7.94	1	16		143		
3	 Shane Bieber	CLE	P	8.94	3	15		143		
4	 Trevor Bauer	CIN	P	15.74	7	23		143		
5	 Yu Darvish	SD	P	18.03	10	26		143		
6	 Walker Buehler	LAD	P	19.84	12	36		143		
7	 Lucas Giolito	CWS	P	19.96	12	30		143		
8	 Aaron Nola	PHI	P	23.64	17	34		143		
9	 Luis Castillo	CIN	P	28.14	18	47		143		
10	 Max Scherzer	WAS	P	29.70	19	47		143		
11	 Jack Flaherty	STL	P	30.34	18	46		143		
12	 Clayton Kershaw	LAD	P	33.81	23	58		143		
13	 Brandon Woodruff	MLW	P	36.45	22	55		143

[Pauly]

I love Story (built two teams on him last year), but wondering what the possibility he gets traded is going to do to his draft-day and long-term value. Dude is great but as you would expect, his splits are very Coors friendly.

He could sign an extension, but if not, I dont see how Colorado doesnt trade him. Thus, pick 10 might be high.

[Ken]

Both picks seem to be about value based on ADP. The second tier of pitchers seems to be a really large one: on top of the six SP you mention, I'd throw Scherzer, Castillo, and Flaherty in there, too. If he's available in round 3 in this format, I'm grabbing Castillo and running. I like Woodruff a lot but not at that price. I'm kind of shocked how up everyone is on Yu Darvish.

I was going to mention Castillo as well. Not sure he makes it to 3rd round pick but does *someone* from that group?

[Hornsby]

The only other pitcher that I'd consider other than Castillo would have been Kershaw...love the old guy going back to school last year and adding some MPH back on his fastball. But Giolito is a stud, so no complaints there.

[Todd Zola]

Luis Castillo made it six pitchers in a row (and still counting).

Darvish's control gains appear to be real. There is injury risk, even though he had TJS (some like to say his elbow isn't 36 years old, I don't buy into that). I can't see San Diego using him every 6th day.

Agree on Story, and maybe if this wasn't a private league, I would have gone elsewhere, though Jose Ramirez is in the same boat, except the park switch may not affect him as much. Freeman would have been the other batter. We'll see what happens. FWIW, in a neutral venue, Story projects as a third rounder, but who knows.

[chancellor]

Really like Giolito there - I'd take him before Nola in a minute, and probably before Bauer, too.

[Todd Zola]

Was hoping for Nola but am not complaining.

Grabbed Anthony Rendon at 3.10. Playing ADP chicken with the room on a guy I rank higher, but could fall. Interesting draft. At least two, maybe three teams will wait until R4 for their first pitcher. Simply amazing this is now the contrarian approach. Used to be "I'm not taking an arm until Round 5."

[Todd Zola]

1.10 Trevor Story
2.21 Lucas Giolito
3.40 Anthony Rendon
4.51 Eloy Jimenez

I have Marcell Ozuna ranked worthy of 3.40, but I played chicken with the room and lost. It's fine, teams don't really differentiate from the market until later.

Rendon's floor is rock solid while Jimenez has a nice combo of floor and upside.

Now a very long sweat commences as I have very particular plans for the next two picks.

[Sour Masher]

This could be the year Eloy takes the next step. I would be happy to land him after pick 50.

[Ken]

This could be the year Eloy takes the next step. I would be happy to land him after pick 50.

His ADP is in the 30s, so yeah that's a steal.

[chancellor]

This could be the year Eloy takes the next step. I would be happy to land him after pick 50.

Agree - he's a really fine alternate to Ozuna.

[Todd Zola]

His ADP is in the 30s, so yeah that's a steal.

My research suggests otherwise. First off, I don't care where I draft someone relative to the ADP; I care where I get them relative to my expectations.

That said, studies on the 2019 NFBC Main Event showed so-called value picks on the whole did not return profit while so-called reaches in the aggregate provided a positive return on investment.

[Pauly]

Kind of early to use ADP as the bible anyway