2k21 Joc Pederson

[Sour Masher]

Andrew Simon had a great article on Joc a couple of weeks ago. It highlights just how great Joc has been against righties in his career, while pointing out that the Dodgers gave up on him against lefties very early on, despite him hitting them okay in the minors. There exists the possibility that he signs for a team willing to give him a chance as a near-every day player, despite having the most extreme splits in baseball. This could hurt his BA/OBP, but help his other numbers. He his 36 homers in 2019 in just 450 ABs, and he is still just 28 years old. Conversely, he could provide a team a tremendous amount of production on the cheap if they can pair him with a hitter than can hit lefties. He is intriguing, depending on where he signs and for what role. What say the rest of you on Joc for 2021 and beyond? Where do you think he signs, and do you see him getting ABs against at least some lefties or will he be almost exclusively a platoon player?

Here is the opening paragraph from the article:

"Let’s take a look at three free-agent outfielders and their batting lines since 2015 -- with one crucial caveat. This is against right-handed pitchers only.

Marcell Ozuna: 2,567 PA, .273/.337/.460 (114 wRC+), 103 HR
Joc Pederson: 2,101 PA, .239/.348/.505 (129 wRC+), 121 HR
George Springer: 2,307 PA, .271/.354/.483 (129 wRC+), 106 HR"

[harmon]

My 2021 OOTP season had Joc with 51HR and .270 with the Brewers!

[Sour Masher]

My 2021 OOTP season had Joc with 51HR and .270 with the Brewers!

Ha, well I don't think the Brewers would make him an every day player...I think it would take him signing with a bad team for him to get that chance. But if I have to bet on one of those numbers, if he could get an every day job, I'd bet on the 51 hrs before I bet on the .270 BA .

[chancellor]

Ha, well I don't think the Brewers would make him an every day player...

Depends on the universal DH, I suspect. And the Brewers being willing to pay him. but if there's a universal DH, the Brewers sure don't have much of any better option, though I agree they'd certainly still sit him against tougher lefties.

But I doubt Milwaukee would make a play on him unless Joc lasts until bargain bin shopping in mid-February.

But I'd bet on him being mostly a platoon player. I'm kinda surprised the Yankees haven't gone after him yet. Seems like a fit - clearly, the park fits him, he'd be good insurance for the inevitable Stanton and/or Judge and/or Hicks injury and even could spell Voit periodically at 1B.

[Sour Masher]

Depends on the universal DH, I suspect.

Speaking of, I'm surprised by the continued posturing on the DH. I have assumed this thing will get implemented, eventually, but the longer they play coy, the less time teams have to prepare for it. Maybe it won't, though. It would be nice for them to call it one way or the other soon.

[Ken]

the longer they play coy, the less time teams have to prepare for it

What do they have to do to prepare? Remind their pitchers that they don't need to take batting practice?

[Bene Futuis]

No real idea, but I'd imagine that players who put up near 3.0 WAR in a sorta part-time role are relatively scarce. A deep enough team to allow Joc to patrol multiple OF spots and take the vast majority of his ABs vs righties could be looking at a steal. Fangraphs has his presumed contract pegged at or around 2/$20M but I bet he'll be cheaper than that. Still bummed that his SBs essentially dropped immediately to nil once he hit the bigs - dude was a 30-30 guy in the minors.

[Sour Masher]

What do they have to do to prepare? Remind their pitchers that they don't need to take batting practice?

Teams are signing players or not signing players based on the DH. NL teams have been told to plan for no DH, but I suspect they might get one. By the time they do, players like Nelson Cruz will haves signed elsewhere for less money then he could have gotten with more teams competing for his services, and for a good value for that team in relation to the new market for the remaining bats still out there if/when the decision is made to go ahead with the DH.

[Ken]

Teams are signing players or not signing players based on the DH. NL teams have been told to plan for no DH, but I suspect they might get one. By the time they do, players like Nelson Cruz will haves signed elsewhere for less money then he could have gotten with more teams competing for his services, and for a good value for that team in relation to the new market for the remaining bats still out there if/when the decision is made to go ahead with the DH.

So you answered your own question right? The league doesn’t want to increase salaries.

[Hornsby]

I'm guessing, and it's only a guess, that the owners are saving the universal DH as a bargaining chip for the 2022 labor battle that is coming up. So no giving away the DH this season, IMO. Squeeze 15 jobs out this year, and dangle them next year. It's really a good tactic...obvious, but good.

[Judge Jude]

re Pederson

1992-2007 Ryan Klesko - .920 OPS vs RHP, .700 OPS vs LHP - would like a word



I often bought him because I knew if only vs RHP he'd had a nice AVG, and more time vs LHP would hurt the AVG but help the counting stats.

in a keeper league, buying a guy for 14 units and getting 14 units of production works just fine

[Sour Masher]

re Pederson

1992-2007 Ryan Klesko - .920 OPS vs RHP, .700 OPS vs LHP - would like a word



I often bought him because I knew if only vs RHP he'd had a nice AVG, and more time vs LHP would hurt the AVG but help the counting stats.

in a keeper league, buying a guy for 14 units and getting 14 units of production works just fine

Pederson splits make Klesko look like a balanced hitter. His are, I think, the most extreme in baseball over the last 5 years. I am probably deluding myself by thinking, if finally given half a chance, he could improve upon those splits enough to justify starting against at least non-elite lefties. His career OPS against righties: .849. His career OPS against lefties: 576.

[Judge Jude]

well, 220 difference vs 273 - and as noted, with Joc getting fewer chances.

in 2004, late in Klesko's career, he went .849 in 349 PA vs RHP - and .840 in 131 PA vs LHP.

[Bene Futuis]

rumors about Joc getting pursued by the Giants and the Braves

[Sour Masher]

rumors about Joc getting pursued by the Giants and the Braves

Yeah, he seems popular. SF would be close to home for him and I think they would give him a chance to play nearly every day. It would also put him in the worst stadium for hitters in baseball. Atlanta is a hitters park and it would put him in a much better line up. But it would likely be in a straight platoon.