Unbalanced Schedule and 2021

[joncarlos]

A couple of questions I'm thinking about for 2021.

-How much are you discounting NL/AL Central players for their "easy" schedule last year? Zach Plesac really feasted on those crappy teams. So did some other players. Ke'bryan Hayes?

-How much are you discounting/upvoting NL/AL Central players THIS year, either because you expect the unbalanced schedule to return in 2021, or because both divisions will be so bad that they'll still offer a ton of great matchups?

[Ken]

Zach Plesac really feasted on those crappy teams.

Plesac faced CHW 3 times shutting them out twice. Yes, he also faced bad teams, but on average he doesn't seem like the one to focus on here.

On average, the offenses he faced scored 4.58 R/Gm, the same as Colorado, the 15th ranked offense in R.

[Todd Zola]

Plesac started eight games. Three were on four days rest, three on five days rest and two with six-plus (though one was the start after being punished so he may have thrown more recently on the alternative training site.

Small sample, but extremes in small samples can be actionable and Plesac pitched markedly better with more rest.

This is one of many considerations when putting Plesac under the microscope, but it's enough for me to land a bit more bearish than the market.

[joncarlos]

Plesac faced CHW 3 times shutting them out twice. Yes, he also faced bad teams, but on average he doesn't seem like the one to focus on here.

On average, the offenses he faced scored 4.58 R/Gm, the same as Colorado, the 15th ranked offense in R.

He's not necessarily the point - just someone to use as an example. I would question what the White Sox' standard deviation of their scoring looked like against other teams, as they felt like they were very hit and miss. But that's not really my question.

Austin Gomber... Dylan Cease ... Alec Mills .... Aaron Civale... these are all guys who are a lot more interesting if they'll be continuing to face a steady diet of Pirates, Royals, Tigers, Indians, etc.