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"The lottery is a tax on 99.99% of people who are bad at math" doesn't have quite the same ring to it....
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finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84
SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
C Stallings 2, Casali 1
1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1 -
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Hmm, it is still a tax on 100% of people who are bad at math, though. It's just that some of those people benefit from being bad at math. But even those people are taxed. The house always winsOriginally posted by Judge Jude View Post
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well, if you don't play, then those who do are paying YOU (an infinitesimal amount of) tax!finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84
SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
C Stallings 2, Casali 1
1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1Comment
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Never let it be known that I don't pay my taxes! I already brought a ticket each for the drawings tomorrow and Wednesday. When I win, I'll buy a Baseball Prospectus for each of you.Originally posted by Judge Jude View PostComment
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I have not. Since I did last week I almost feel the need to see it through. But it is cold outside and nearest place to purchase is 7 blocks away. What to do what to do.Originally posted by Sour Masher View PostComment
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If the good Lord wanted us to walk 7 blocks in the cold, he would not have had us invent carsOriginally posted by Gregg View Post.
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Problem solved. I just noticed my wife has to run an errand. I gave her 3 bucks and told her she had to kick one in. Please stop and get one ticket each for Mega and Power. She said why? Umm because we are in this deep and I need to see it to the end...duh.Originally posted by Sour Masher View PostIf the good Lord wanted us to walk 7 blocks in the cold, he would not have had us invent cars.
She then told me she has never bought a lottery ticket and doesn't even no what to do. So I explained the very intricate steps to the process. Rolling of the eyes ensued, but she did say she would do it.
As she was leaving I used my Uncle Lewis (Christmas Vacation) voice and yelled Don't forget my lottery tickets! She yelled back in her Uncle Lewis voice I won't!.
Already got my 4 bucks worth of entertainment today.Comment
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actually, with the mega-millions jackpot at 850 million and your odds of winning being 1 in 303 million, and tickets costing $2, there's a positive EV on buying tickets right now!Originally posted by Judge Jude View Post
I guess you need to calculate in the odds of splitting the prize, and there are taxes... but it's probably better than break-even.I'm not expecting to grow flowers in the desert...Comment
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Funny I just had the exact same conversation with my wife. I asked her to grab a ticket while she was out. She said "I thought you don't play b/c it's just a tax on people who don't understand math". And I explained that I only play when it's a positive EV (or close)Originally posted by heyelander View PostComment
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splitting the prize would seem to be far more likely when it reaches this level of frenzy.
my speculation would be that there is a critical mass of size of jackpot vs. amount of new tickets bought that would have peaked the EV at a good 7-10 days ago.
while most people now just buy a random ticket, the EV improves slightly (ok, infinitesimally) if you have at least one number above 31.
then if your ticket wins, every customer who picks numbers solely based on dates is eliminated. the Princeton professor taught me that one.finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84
SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
C Stallings 2, Casali 1
1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1Comment
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I got the winning ticket right here. I figure I have a 50-50 chance--either I win or I lose, 50-50. How can I lose with those odds? Plus I want to win really bad and Willy Wonka taught me that means I am a shoo-in.Comment
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You should have bought 2 tickets. Then u couldn't loseOriginally posted by Sour Masher View Post---------------------------------------------
Champagne for breakfast and a Sherman in my hand !
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The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.
George Orwell, 1984
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Pshh, you don't know maths like me. It would still be 50-50, cuz I'd still either win or I'd lose. No matter how many tickets I bought, it would be 50-50. That is why I just bought 1.Originally posted by The Feral Slasher View PostComment
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There should be a prize for getting no numbers. That has to be harder than getting them all, right?Originally posted by Sour Masher View PostComment
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