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How much are you willing to pay?

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  • How much are you willing to pay?

    How much are you willing to pay for a keeper pitcher in auction leagues. I am not asking about how much will you pay at auction. I am asking about max on your keeper list.

  • #2
    With a $260 budget, I'd keep one in the $40's depending on my team comp.

    Someone in my 9-team NL-only league has DeGrom at $42 and I view that as a very solid keeper.

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    • #3
      I personally have trouble going above $40 ... it would have to be a SP at his peak
      It certainly feels that way. But I'm distrustful of that feeling and am curious about evidence.

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      • #4
        Last off-season, I had to decide on extension length for Gerrit Cole in a 12 team AL only. He was at $34, and I had Snell $16 thru '21 and Clevinger $11 thru '21, so I figured with those cheaper aces I could afford a longer extension for Cole... those 2 trades out of the AL really screwed up my team build.

        I went 2 extra years on Cole to $44 thru '22. Now that I have 2 years left and look like more of a rebuilder, I kinda wish I would have stuck to 1 extra year for $39, but oh well.

        $44 is probably the highest priced keeper I've ever kept.
        Larry David was once being heckled, long before any success. Heckler says "I'm taking my dog over to fuck your mother, weekly." Larry responds "I hate to tell you this, but your dog isn't liking it."

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        • #5
          never been an issue as I seem incapable of bidding over $40 for any player at auction.

          Silver lining is I always have some auction cash to spend elsewhere after the auction is done!
          I'm not expecting to grow flowers in the desert...

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          • #6
            In an only keeper league, - let's use NL only for this example - I'd keep DeGrom at up to $45 for one of two reasons:

            1. I have an awesome keeper list of other premium players at good to great prices and am keeping him as my ace for a title run, or
            2. I have a catastrophically bad keeper list, and my odds of winning are slim and I'm likely in for a rebuild year and could use him as a chip to get one or more blue-chip players back in a dump deal.
            I'm just here for the baseball.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Gregg View Post
              How much are you willing to pay for a keeper pitcher in auction leagues. I am not asking about how much will you pay at auction. I am asking about max on your keeper list.
              Assuming no competition for the roster spot, standard auction value * inflation - $1

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              • #8
                yes, whether the pitcher is worth keeping at what price depends a lot on context.

                in 2019, 12-team-only 5x5 NL-only, I paired Scherzer 44 with CSmith 1 on the freeze list - then bought Jeff S and PLopez for a 1 buck, too (and Cueto for that price as a 2020-21 play).

                Max had 243 K, but only 11 W and 172 IP. excellent ERA/Ratio, but in 60+ fewer IP.

                that "really good but not Cy Young good" had an impact. even though the 1-unit wonders were 1derful, I only scored 32 points in W/K/ERA/Ratio - or 6 above average. that left me 4.5 points short of 3rd place (and, full disclosure, 32.5 points out of 2nd and 33 points out of first).

                have found that paying more for that anchor stud SP feels as if it keeps getting better, as the chasm between the best vs the 20th vs the 50th best SP in a league seems to grow.

                this year, the projected top 20 SPs by HQ in this league are (no 2020 season, so these roll over from 2019):

                deGrom $45 - owned for $45
                Kershaw $33 - owned for $26
                BAUER $33
                Hendricks $28 - owned for $25
                NOLA $25
                Strasburg $25 - owned for $30
                Darvish $25 - owned for $5
                Buehler $24 - owned for $5
                Woodruff $24 - owned for $11
                SCHERZER $24 - (have option of $44 - no)

                Flaherty $24 - owned for $5
                LCASTILLO $23
                Lamet $19 - owned for $10
                SGray $19 - owned for $15
                Gallen $19 - owned for $10
                GONSOLIN $18 - owned for $5
                SNELL $18
                Paddack $17 - owned for $15
                MORTON $17
                Fried $16 - owned for $3

                (oh, had not noticed this til now. oof)
                finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
                own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
                won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

                SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
                RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
                C Stallings 2, Casali 1
                1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
                OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1

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                • #9
                  I think the highest valued pitcher I've ever kept was Kershaw at $25 (12-team mixed) last year. I can keep at that price again this year and I'll probably roll the dice once more.
                  If DMT didn't exist we would have to invent it. There has to be a weirdest thing. Once we have the concept weird, there has to be a weirdest thing. And DMT is simply it.
                  - Terence McKenna

                  Bullshit is everywhere. - George Carlin (& Jon Stewart)

                  How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are? - Satchel Paige

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                  • #10
                    I get visibily uncomfortable when a price gets to $40 on a pitcher in a keeper league. Even if I have the clear need, I don't like being pushed to a price.

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                    • #11
                      It's obvious, but it's all context. Part of it depends on the rest of my keeper list. If I might need to spend big on hitters, then I want to save the cash and the flexibility for auction. If you're not the kind of person who spends $30+ on a pitcher at auction under the right circumstances, then don't lock yourself into it with your keeper list. But if you are going to need an expensive pitcher anyway, then I'd consider keeping one.

                      I consider these to be things outside of the normal, straight "value" format - a pitcher's keeper value might be positive, but if you're not comfortable doing it, or don't want your hands tied, then it's understandable.

                      I would be happy to pay $30+ under the right circumstances, though.

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                      • #12
                        This question is impossible to asnwer as so much depends on context of the league and inflation. As Ken said inflated value -$1

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                        • #13
                          I have swung way, way around on this question in recent years. I’ll pay far more and spend far more to keep an elite pitcher than I once did.
                          More American children die by gunfire in a year than on-duty police officers and active duty military.

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