My Worst Freeze List options in my 36 years - any ray of hope?

[Judge Jude]

so we did that Parallel Universe draft instead of our 37th annual auction this year, and now we are about to start looking forward to some sort of relative normalcy in 2021.

any my freeze list is....... brutal. and you don't have to sugarcoat your confirmations of same

as per my signature in this 12-team, NL-only, classic 5x5 league (these are 2019 contracts moved up just one season):

SP Max Scherzer 44-S1 - nobody panic: no chance I keep him, but maybe I confuse a rival til freeze date who knows our bromance
SP German Marquez 10-O - worth less in this no-bench league given home/road splits, but he only turns age 26 in February
SP Caleb Smith 1-O - yes if healthy for DBacks
SP Johnny Cueto 1-S1 - showed more promise in 2020 than his surface stats indicate, and only a buck
SP Jeff Samardzija 1-S1 - FA and presumably unsafe at any speed
RP Ryne Stanek 8-S1 - FA may be lost to AL and a NO barring a new-team bus crash that makes him a closer

C Jacob Realmuto 13-O - wait, this is a good player at a good price! but FA is gone if he signs with AL club
1B-OF Garrett Cooper 10-S1 - minimal upside or downside
1B-OF Brandon Belt 10-S1 - unlikely "breakout" for perennial underachiever. minimal upside or downside
SS Brandon Crawford 8-S1 - unlikely "rebound" for perennial boring player. minimal upside or downside
OF Corey Dickerson 17-S1 - another perennial boring player, with minimal upside
(OF Jarrod Dyson 8-S1 - an option only if he signs with an NL club)

FARM
No. 1 overall pick in April draft - likely will be SF's Luciano
OF Heliot Ramos - rarely have one of my farm "tadpoles" grown back legs before I have traded them away; will keep. 5-S2 the year after rookie status expires
Matt McLain - still have rights to dormant UCLA SS if he gets drafted by NL team
Brett Baty - Mets prospect faces crossroads in minors 2021
No. 13 pick in April draft - likely all NLers from mainstream MLB top 100 lists will be gone by then
No. 19 pick - ditto
still own my own midseason, post-MLB draft pick - um, could be another No. 1 overall
disappointing Nick Neidert, Jhailyn Ortiz, Riley Pint (!)

I only once have ever walked into (or Zoomed into?) an auction playing for "next year" - it was around 25-30 years ago, and I made all bids based on "second-year value" estimates. so closers in waiting, raw toolsy batters and SPs and so forth.

I finished third that year - and first the year after

hey, that's why they play the games!

[chancellor]

Yeah, that's pretty savage. Looks like you're locked in on CSmith, Cueto, and Realmuto.

I like Cooper at 10; it's not like the Marlins have great choices in RF over him, so he'll get PT. And there were some nice improvements last year.
Crawford is serviceable for 8 - you know his floor, and last year showed some power upside similar to his 2015 year.
Belt, yeah, you probably gotta keep him.

But that would be it for me.

[Judge Jude]

how close is Marquez for you, chance? (conceding that no-bench complicates his candidacy)

[TranaGreg]

Many years ago I took a rebuilding approach of getting 5 or 6 of the best players I could with sole intent of trading them for prospects in May. As I recall it worked out pretty well ... Plus I had a bunch of less-than$10 guys (just needed a few of them to pan out) ... Just saying, you might want to reconsider on Scherzer.

[Judge Jude]

here's my approach with a guy like Scherzer, from decades of "reading the room..."

if there is a veteran player/owner bromance, and the owner lets him go, I have never once seen anyone bid that player up to the rejected freeze list price option. this league also does not like old, stud SPs as much as other leagues might.

but this is why I haven't released him already. I want this rejected price to be fresh in their minds come auction day. he'll likely return to me, but a lot cheaper this time around.

[Gregg]

here's my approach with a guy like Scherzer, from decades of "reading the room..."

if there is a veteran player/owner bromance, and the owner lets him go, I have never once seen anyone bid that player up to the rejected freeze list price option. this league also does not like old, stud SPs as much as other leagues might.

but this is why I haven't released him already. I want this rejected price to be fresh in their minds come auction day. he'll likely return to me, but a lot cheaper this time around.

I like this strategy and will be interested in reading the outcome.

I pretty much agree with Chance's comments with the exception of Cooper. Does he go for less at auction? Then again what am I thinking here...save a couple of bucks? Kind of coin toss for me.

I would be keeping Marquez at 10. I like his age, 4 pitches to choose from, and he was lights out except for 2 starts last year (15 earned runs in those two games). I don't think you get him cheaper at auction.

If I could only choose one of Cooper or Marquez. I would take Marquez and see what Cooper goes for at auction.

[chancellor]

how close is Marquez for you, chance? (conceding that no-bench complicates his candidacy)

Close. He has value. It's just with your no-bench rules, you'll have to eat the periodic 2IP, 8ER or similar line he coughs up at Coors. OTOH, on the plus side, he's pretty durable, delivers a very acceptable WHIP, and he's gradually pushed up his GB% over the last three years. I'd certainly not argue if you thought he was worth keeping.

I understand TranaGreg's point on Scherzer, but given age and recency bias, I agree that you're likely to get him back at 44 or even a little less in the auction. And then he'd have a fresh contract, and have even better trade value if you end up rebuilding.

[Judge Jude]

the other "poker strategy" angle on Scherzer is if I cut him even before spring training, it might signal my indifference even more emphatically.

if owners remember on Sunday that I held Max until 4 days earlier at 44, they might feel as if they can bid me up closer to that number as maybe I'd feel as if I "won" even getting him for 40 or 42 for instance.

btw, I slightly preferred getting Kershaw AND Strasburg instead of Scherzer heading into that 2019 auction.

but Max's name came up first, and as the only stud SP available at the time with no red flags, I went to my max and got him.

of course the next two SP names called out are Kershaw and Strasburg. even w Max in hand, I went to 25 on Kershaw and then 29 on Strasburg.

owner sitting next to me got Kershaw for 26 and Strasburg for 30. I hesitantly asked him if those were his final bids (this is not a guy who is the bluffing type). he said they were.

ouch, there's 34 W and 434 K out the window along with roughly 3.20 ERA and 1.045 Ratio - all because the names came out in an unfortunate order!

weirdest part: I finished 6th in 2019 and he somehow finished 7th with that duo. my next-highest SP buy was Tanner Roark for 8 (6 W, 108 K then lost to AL).

[TranaGreg]

All good points. It's been awhile since I was in an only league and obviously every league has its nuances but if you are pretty confident that you can get him back in the auction for less that's the way to go.

And I agree with Chance and Gregg on Marquez, he'd be on my keeper list even with the no-bench rule.

[Moonlight J]

Stanek is fulzgold as a closer. Not worth the freeze.

[Judge Jude]

I think my comment on him made that clear