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Thread: PONY Keepers

  1. #1
    All Star heyelander's Avatar
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    PONY Keepers

    I'm bored, and on edge a bit today... so posting a uselessly early keeper list. Help me out!
    I guess my big question is which young/injured pitchers do I gamble on, and which do I toss back?

    15 team mixed, standard 5x5, two catchers, $260 auction. Keep 10

    d'Arnaud 4
    Machado 35
    Swanson 5 Extend?
    Grichuck 8 Extend?
    K Lewis 5
    Tucker 7
    Belt 3

    Lamet 1 Extend how long?
    Luzardo 5
    Nola 26
    S Howard 3
    Pearson 5
    Tallion 5
    Mahle 5

    I have
    Sixto, Manning in Minors
    I'm not expecting to grow flowers in the desert...

  2. #2
    Journeyman Teenwolf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by heyelander View Post
    I'm bored, and on edge a bit today... so posting a uselessly early keeper list. Help me out!
    I guess my big question is which young/injured pitchers do I gamble on, and which do I toss back?

    15 team mixed, standard 5x5, two catchers, $260 auction. Keep 10

    d'Arnaud 4
    Machado 35
    Swanson 5 Extend?
    Grichuck 8 Extend?
    K Lewis 5
    Tucker 7
    Belt 3

    Lamet 1 Extend how long?
    Luzardo 5
    Nola 26
    S Howard 3
    Pearson 5
    Tallion 5
    Mahle 5

    I have
    Sixto, Manning in Minors
    First thoughts. I'd lean towards keeping more offense and less pitching, given Sixto and Manning waiting in the wings, I'd probably go with 6 hitters, 4 pitchers. You have 2 elite SP (Nola 26, and I'd extend Lamet to 11) and some really high end SP prospects with a lot of uncertainty surrounding them, between Pearson, Howard, and Taillon.

    I would try to deal Belt $3, Grichuk $8, and Swanson $5, pairing any of them with the high end SP prospects. If you could land a keeper list upgrade or some high picks, I think those are all pretty replaceable pieces at decent but not incredible prices. Belt has still never been good over a full season, Grichuk (if it's OBP instead of AVG, he takes a big hit, and I wouldn't extend either way), and Swanson is a decent guy but not a star, especially in a 15 tm mixed format.


    d'Arnaud 4
    Machado 35

    Swanson 5 Extend? NO EXT.
    Grichuck 8 Extend?
    K Lewis 5
    Tucker 7
    Belt 3


    Lamet 1 Extend to $11 or $16, I lean $11 for injury risk
    Luzardo 5
    Nola 26
    S Howard 3
    Pearson 5
    Tallion 5
    Mahle 5

    That's my top 9, and I'd keep whichever remaining hitter you like best for a solid 2021. Between Belt, Swanson, Grichuk, I'd lean towards Swanson. He's in his prime at 26, seems like he figured something out at the plate, and adds 10-15 SB. It's a decent package with the most upside of the group. He's my 10th. Grichuk is left off the list because at $8, his ratios could fall back off a cliff and his poor CF defense could lead to less playing time as the Jays look to contend, and Grichuk looks like one of the weakest links.

    I think Mahle's breakout was due to a change in pitch mix, and although he probably still allows too many fly balls to keep the ERA much below 4, he seems like a good bet for solid ratios. But I'd consider including him in the trade block mix (though maybe he has less trade value given his lack of pedigree and 2 prior years of suckage).

    Grichuk, S. Howard, Taillon, and N. Pearson are the remaining trade bait. I could be convinced to swap out Belt for one of the leftovers, or add to trade bait.



    EDIT: I struggled counting to 10, lol. Fixed now.

  3. #3
    All Star Ken's Avatar
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    I don't see how you'd keep any one of the last 4 pitchers over Grichuk.

    I'd only extend Lamet 1 year. He's a pitcher with health concerns already.

  4. #4
    My top 8 would be your first six hitters listed, Nola, and Lamet extended for a year to 6. I'd probably keep Luzardo as the 9th guy as an upside play, though I suspect you've seen what he is if he can stay healthy - 4 ERA +/-, mid 1.2s WHIP, a K per inning.

    In a BA league, I'm not sold on Belt at all. I don't think his HR rate is sustainable (look at his HR/FB in '20 versus previous) and it's not like he hit a lot more flyballs. And even with his excellent eye, I think that .356 BABIP is coming down. But he's probably the best tenth option, though I'd be really tempted to make an upside play on Pearson or Taillon.
    I'm just here for the baseball.

  5. #5
    All Star heyelander's Avatar
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    man, I can't believe there's actual belief in d'Arnaud. I put him in as an afterthought... he's a guy I've drafted for years and always regretted (except for last year). I thought I was still being a Pollyanna putting him on my list as a suggestion.
    I'm not expecting to grow flowers in the desert...

  6. #6
    All Star Ken's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by heyelander View Post
    man, I can't believe there's actual belief in d'Arnaud. I put him in as an afterthought... he's a guy I've drafted for years and always regretted (except for last year). I thought I was still being a Pollyanna putting him on my list as a suggestion.
    If you had great options otherwise he'd be a cut, but in your format he was the 3rd best catcher this year, $4 off of Realmuto, and the other options aren't jumping off the page. I'm keeping him in my 15 team mixed league easily (same format).

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by heyelander View Post
    man, I can't believe there's actual belief in d'Arnaud. I put him in as an afterthought... he's a guy I've drafted for years and always regretted (except for last year). I thought I was still being a Pollyanna putting him on my list as a suggestion.
    Well, for four bucks at C he seems like a solid keep in a 15-team league. He's hit well for about two half-seasons now, and while that .411 BABIP indicates the numbers will drop, I think he'll still put up good number for you.
    I'm just here for the baseball.

  8. #8
    Journeyman Teenwolf's Avatar
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    Most of my leagues have switched to 1 catcher slot, so seeing this league still has 30 catchers in daily lineups, thats quite a shallow position. Even if D'Arnaud regressed, he's still easily a top 15 catcher, so the $4 is a no brainer for me. Catchers also see development at the plate later than others, so I see some legitimacy to him finally translating his prospect pedigree into production. If he stays healthy.

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