PONY Keepers

[heyelander]

I'm bored, and on edge a bit today... so posting a uselessly early keeper list. Help me out!
I guess my big question is which young/injured pitchers do I gamble on, and which do I toss back?

15 team mixed, standard 5x5, two catchers, $260 auction. Keep 10

d'Arnaud 4
Machado 35
Swanson 5 Extend?
Grichuck 8 Extend?
K Lewis 5
Tucker 7
Belt 3

Lamet 1 Extend how long?
Luzardo 5
Nola 26
S Howard 3
Pearson 5
Tallion 5
Mahle 5

I have
Sixto, Manning in Minors

[Teenwolf]

I'm bored, and on edge a bit today... so posting a uselessly early keeper list. Help me out!
I guess my big question is which young/injured pitchers do I gamble on, and which do I toss back?

15 team mixed, standard 5x5, two catchers, $260 auction. Keep 10

d'Arnaud 4
Machado 35
Swanson 5 Extend?
Grichuck 8 Extend?
K Lewis 5
Tucker 7
Belt 3

Lamet 1 Extend how long?
Luzardo 5
Nola 26
S Howard 3
Pearson 5
Tallion 5
Mahle 5

I have
Sixto, Manning in Minors

First thoughts. I'd lean towards keeping more offense and less pitching, given Sixto and Manning waiting in the wings, I'd probably go with 6 hitters, 4 pitchers. You have 2 elite SP (Nola 26, and I'd extend Lamet to 11) and some really high end SP prospects with a lot of uncertainty surrounding them, between Pearson, Howard, and Taillon.

I would try to deal Belt $3, Grichuk $8, and Swanson $5, pairing any of them with the high end SP prospects. If you could land a keeper list upgrade or some high picks, I think those are all pretty replaceable pieces at decent but not incredible prices. Belt has still never been good over a full season, Grichuk (if it's OBP instead of AVG, he takes a big hit, and I wouldn't extend either way), and Swanson is a decent guy but not a star, especially in a 15 tm mixed format.


d'Arnaud 4
Machado 35
Swanson 5 Extend? NO EXT.
Grichuck 8 Extend?
K Lewis 5
Tucker 7
Belt 3

Lamet 1 Extend to $11 or $16, I lean $11 for injury risk
Luzardo 5
Nola 26
S Howard 3
Pearson 5
Tallion 5
Mahle 5

That's my top 9, and I'd keep whichever remaining hitter you like best for a solid 2021. Between Belt, Swanson, Grichuk, I'd lean towards Swanson. He's in his prime at 26, seems like he figured something out at the plate, and adds 10-15 SB. It's a decent package with the most upside of the group. He's my 10th. Grichuk is left off the list because at $8, his ratios could fall back off a cliff and his poor CF defense could lead to less playing time as the Jays look to contend, and Grichuk looks like one of the weakest links.

I think Mahle's breakout was due to a change in pitch mix, and although he probably still allows too many fly balls to keep the ERA much below 4, he seems like a good bet for solid ratios. But I'd consider including him in the trade block mix (though maybe he has less trade value given his lack of pedigree and 2 prior years of suckage).

Grichuk, S. Howard, Taillon, and N. Pearson are the remaining trade bait. I could be convinced to swap out Belt for one of the leftovers, or add to trade bait.



EDIT: I struggled counting to 10, lol. Fixed now.

[Ken]

I don't see how you'd keep any one of the last 4 pitchers over Grichuk.

I'd only extend Lamet 1 year. He's a pitcher with health concerns already.

[chancellor]

My top 8 would be your first six hitters listed, Nola, and Lamet extended for a year to 6. I'd probably keep Luzardo as the 9th guy as an upside play, though I suspect you've seen what he is if he can stay healthy - 4 ERA +/-, mid 1.2s WHIP, a K per inning.

In a BA league, I'm not sold on Belt at all. I don't think his HR rate is sustainable (look at his HR/FB in '20 versus previous) and it's not like he hit a lot more flyballs. And even with his excellent eye, I think that .356 BABIP is coming down. But he's probably the best tenth option, though I'd be really tempted to make an upside play on Pearson or Taillon.

[heyelander]

man, I can't believe there's actual belief in d'Arnaud. I put him in as an afterthought... he's a guy I've drafted for years and always regretted (except for last year). I thought I was still being a Pollyanna putting him on my list as a suggestion.

[Ken]

man, I can't believe there's actual belief in d'Arnaud. I put him in as an afterthought... he's a guy I've drafted for years and always regretted (except for last year). I thought I was still being a Pollyanna putting him on my list as a suggestion.

If you had great options otherwise he'd be a cut, but in your format he was the 3rd best catcher this year, $4 off of Realmuto, and the other options aren't jumping off the page. I'm keeping him in my 15 team mixed league easily (same format).

[chancellor]

man, I can't believe there's actual belief in d'Arnaud. I put him in as an afterthought... he's a guy I've drafted for years and always regretted (except for last year). I thought I was still being a Pollyanna putting him on my list as a suggestion.

Well, for four bucks at C he seems like a solid keep in a 15-team league. He's hit well for about two half-seasons now, and while that .411 BABIP indicates the numbers will drop, I think he'll still put up good number for you.

[Teenwolf]

Most of my leagues have switched to 1 catcher slot, so seeing this league still has 30 catchers in daily lineups, thats quite a shallow position. Even if D'Arnaud regressed, he's still easily a top 15 catcher, so the $4 is a no brainer for me. Catchers also see development at the plate later than others, so I see some legitimacy to him finally translating his prospect pedigree into production. If he stays healthy.

[heyelander]

Bumping this as keepers are due tomorrow. Any changes?
Realized that Tucker is expiring also so do I go 1 year for 12 or 2 for 17?

I also have Goldshmidt at $33 as a possible.
Keeper have increased to a potential 12.

d'Arnaud 4
Machado 35
Goldshmidt 33
Swanson 5 Extend?
Grichuck 8 Extend?
K Lewis 5
Tucker 7 Extend?
Belt 3

Lamet 1 Extend how long?
Luzardo 5
Nola 26
S Howard 3
Pearson 5
Tallion 5
Mahle 5

I have
Sixto, Manning in Minors

[The Feral Slasher]

Bumping this as keepers are due tomorrow. Any changes?
Realized that Tucker is expiring also so do I go 1 year for 12 or 2 for 17?

I also have Goldshmidt at $33 as a possible.
Keeper have increased to a potential 12.

d'Arnaud 4
Machado 35
Goldshmidt 33- maybe, depending on inflation
Swanson 5 Extend? one year maybe, i could go either way depending on league inflation
Grichuck 8 Extend? I probably would not keep, but maybe in place of Pearson ?
K Lewis 5
Tucker 7 Extend? yes 1 or 2 years depending on inflation
Belt 3

Lamet 1 Extend how long? I'd go one year extension
Luzardo 5
Nola 26
S Howard 3
Pearson 5 --- not sure, him or Grichuk. or perhaps Goldy,
Tallion 5
Mahle 5

I have
Sixto, Manning in Minors

my quick and uneducated thoughts

[The Feral Slasher]

my quick and uneducated thoughts

Belt is another option to compare vs Goldy, Pearson and Grichuk. I don't have a good feeling for the best last keeper.

[chancellor]

I'd extend Tucker 2 for 17. If inflation is steep, I'd even consider 3 for 22. But at least 2 for 17.

I'd keep the first seven hitters listed, and five of the first six pitchers (toss Howard back in). I'm also assuming your minors do not count against your total keeps. I'd only extend Lamet a year. I can even see a good argument, given your extra keepers, to not extend him at all.

I would not extend Grichuk, I would extend Swanson a year. I like Swanson's trends and the fact that he's in his prime now.

[The Feral Slasher]

I'd extend Tucker 2 for 17. If inflation is steep, I'd even consider 3 for 22. But at least 2 for 17.

I'd keep the first seven hitters listed, and five of the first six pitchers (toss Howard back in). I'm also assuming your minors do not count against your total keeps. I'd only extend Lamet a year. I can even see a good argument, given your extra keepers, to not extend him at all.

I would not extend Grichuk, I would extend Swanson a year. I like Swanson's trends and the fact that he's in his prime now.

Those extra two keepers will be a real advantage ! : )