Auction league reserve round pick trades?

[Gregg]

We often include reserve round picks with players or for players in the off season.

It has been years since just picks have been trades. One of our owners AL 12 teams is offering up his 1.05 pick. I asked him what he wants. He responded with:

I'm looking for something similar to the deal I just made in NL where I got picks 2.4, 3.4 & 6.4 for my 1.8, 9.8 & 10.8.

Do you have a side you like?

I think he got by far the best end of the deal.

But then it got me to thinking what would a fair offer look like if I wanted his AL 1.05 pick. Any suggestions?

We have 13 rounds. First round is $15 when activated 4 rounds of $10, 4 rounds of $5, 4 rounds of $2.

[Gregg]

Could someone move this to the baseball forum.

Thank you.

[Ken]

If there's a prospect you really like available at 1.05 then a 2/3/6 pick is worth it.

You are upgrading your 2 to a 1. What are you going to get at 3/6 that you couldn't get at 9/10 that's worth more than the 1.05 pick? Typically these things work like asymptotic curves, the top couple tiers fall off fast and then the rest of the reserve rounds are all pretty flat as far as value. We're talking about prospects (of whom the curve certainly applies), and reserve round picks (of whom you've already set a $0 value on basically).

[Ken]

To put real names on it, I have to go back to 2019 personally (I didn't track drafts with my software this year b/c of the odd season).

In 2019 in a keeper league with very similar setup ($15/10/10/etc) here were some representative players from each round:

1) Teoscar Hernandez, Jesus Luzardo, Dallas Keuchel, Jo Adell
2) Tyler O'Neill, Freddy Peralta, Manny Margot, Keone Kela
3) Andrew Heaney, Adam Frazier, Brad Keller, Franchy Cordero
6) Mitch Garver, Christian WAlker, Ian Happ, Brendan Rodgers
9) Scott Kingery, Sean Manaea, Miguel Rojas, Chance Cisco
10) A.J Puq, Chad Pinder, Joe Jimenez, Trent Thornton


Given that kind of distribution, and in retrospect, I'd happily trade my 2nd and 3rd and 6th for a 1st/9th/10th if there's someone I like in the 1st round.

[chancellor]

I agree with Ken - I'd move my round 2/3 picks for 1.05 in a minute and drink beer in celebration after, too.

[heyelander]

[madducks]

I agree with Ken - I'd move my round 2/3 picks for 1.05 in a minute and drink beer in celebration after, too.

Yeah, it's like trading 3 of your middle-round draft picks for a first-rounder and 2 end-game picks.

[madducks]

Could someone move this to the baseball forum.

Thank you.

If Steve 2.0 wanders in here by mistake, everyone just act innocent.

[Ken]

If Steve 2.0 wanders in here by mistake, everyone just act innocent.

Some's gotta do some heavy lifting to get this thing over in the right forum.

[Teenwolf]

Yeah, it's like trading 3 of your middle-round draft picks for a first-rounder and 2 end-game picks.

I'm going to play the contrarian and say that I prefer multiple mid-round guys to 1 first rounder. Especially given the keeper implications that a 1st rounder is $15, later rds cheaper. Much less likelihood of a great keeper price if the pick hits.

But thats just a general rule. Things change based on how large the dropoffs are at different tier points. Like if I see a big drop after the top 5, there's value to the premium pick. Depends if you have mid round targets you expect to last a few rds that you really like or not.

[Steve 2.0]

Could someone move this to the baseball forum.

Thank you.

Looks like "not"

[Gregg]

Looks like "not"

Yes but I still appreciate all of the great advice posted in this one.

I have an offer out there, waiting to hear back.

[Ken]

Looks like "not"

Where's your heavy lifting now?

[madducks]

Looks like "not"

Once this thread gets moved, you will have commented in the baseball forum that you have been avoiding.

MUAHAHAHA!

[Gregg]

XXX deal picks 1.5, 10.8, 11.8 to Hard Boiled Greggs for picks 3.2, 4.2, 4.3.

Thanks for the help gentlemen.