Villar--what's the deal?

[Sour Masher]

I've been offered him on a guaranteed contract. In the preseason, it would have been a great contract. Right now, it looks like maybe an albatross. I don't really know what to make of him. His hard hit rate is concerning, as is the uncertainty of his future home. Is he just an empty steals guy who had a career year in 2019 for power and counting stats due to a career high AB total? Is he someone you would take on a guaranteed deal that pays him at about 70% of his 2019 value?

If I take him on, he bumps a much cheaper JD Davis from my keeper list.

[Pauly]

I've been offered him on a guaranteed contract. In the preseason, it would have been a great contract. Right now, it looks like maybe an albatross. I don't really know what to make of him. His hard hit rate is concerning, as is the uncertainty of his future home. Is he just an empty steals guy who had a career year in 2019 for power and counting stats due to a career high AB total? Is he someone you would take on a guaranteed deal that pays him at about 70% of his 2019 value?

If I take him on, he bumps a much cheaper JD Davis from my keeper list.

he had a much better role in Miami than as a plug-in guy in Toronto now. I feel like he had decent numbers before the trade...not great form to tank heading into free agency, but I would bet he lands in a better situation for him next year.

[chancellor]

If he costs you a cheap JD Davis, I'd be very hesitant to do that. Yeah, JD Davis has been down some this year, but giving up a cheap JD for next year over an expensive Villar seems to me to be more likely to go badly than well.

[TranaGreg]

If he costs you a cheap JD Davis, I'd be very hesitant to do that. Yeah, JD Davis has been down some this year, but giving up a cheap JD for next year over an expensive Villar seems to me to be more likely to go badly than well.

Villar is an extreme case of high risk high reward ... when he's in a good env like Miami was he can put up big numbers, but as a role player on a team that doesn't run much like the Jays, he can become invisible very fast. Next year is anyone's guess but I have a hard time seeing him land anywhere as good as Miami was this year ... far more likely to end up in a role similar to what he's doing now. If I still had him I'd be trying very hard to move him based on his prev #s.

[Sour Masher]

Villar is an extreme case of high risk high reward ... when he's in a good env like Miami was he can put up big numbers, but as a role player on a team that doesn't run much like the Jays, he can become invisible very fast. Next year is anyone's guess but I have a hard time seeing him land anywhere as good as Miami was this year ... far more likely to end up in a role similar to what he's doing now. If I still had him I'd be trying very hard to move him based on his prev #s.

Yeah, that is why the owner is trying to give him away to any taker. I think I am going to pass. I like gambling, and my thought was I could flip him if/when he lands in a good spot, but the return won't be worth the sweat for me till then.

[rhd]

Villar seems like a puzzling case. He's bounced around quite a bit but if he gets regular playing time, he is an above-average offensive player. And the metrics show that he is at least a solid-average defender at 2B (not so much at SS, tho). And he had 4.8 bWAR last year, which is all-star level. In Toronto, it makes sense that they want to give the youngster Biggio the regular time at 2B. But there have to be many teams that could use an above-average offense, average defense everyday 2Bman. I would think that next year some team will make him their everyday 2Bman, maybe at a bargain price.

[Gregg]

I've been offered him on a guaranteed contract. In the preseason, it would have been a great contract. Right now, it looks like maybe an albatross. I don't really know what to make of him. His hard hit rate is concerning, as is the uncertainty of his future home. Is he just an empty steals guy who had a career year in 2019 for power and counting stats due to a career high AB total? Is he someone you would take on a guaranteed deal that pays him at about 70% of his 2019 value?

If I take him on, he bumps a much cheaper JD Davis from my keeper list.

When do you have to turn in your keeper list?

Can you take him on and decide next spring? If you can get him cheap and wait I would be all over that.

[Sour Masher]

When do you have to turn in your keeper list?

Can you take him on and decide next spring? If you can get him cheap and wait I would be all over that.

If I take him on, he is locked in as one of my keepers unless I trade him. The gamble is he is free now, but lands in a good spot, he is likely a good keeper and I can keep or trade higher. If he lands in a bad spot, I won't be able to move him and I'm stuck with him. I also lose out on the opportunity to take JD Davis for $2, as he is my current 15th keeper.

[Gregg]

If I take him on, he is locked in as one of my keepers unless I trade him. The gamble is he is free now, but lands in a good spot, he is likely a good keeper and I can keep or trade higher. If he lands in a bad spot, I won't be able to move him and I'm stuck with him. I also lose out on the opportunity to take JD Davis for $2, as he is my current 15th keeper.

So Davis is not on your roster, but you are currently guaranteed to pick him for $2 to fill your last spot that would now be occupied by Villar?

What happens if you do a 2 for 1 trade can you then roster both?

Do you have any other keepers that are at value that you could drop and still get Davis?

70% of value on Villar's contract seems like you should at least be able to break even.

[Sour Masher]

So Davis is not on your roster, but you are currently guaranteed to pick him for $2 to fill your last spot that would now be occupied by Villar?

What happens if you do a 2 for 1 trade can you then roster both?

Do you have any other keepers that are at value that you could drop and still get Davis?

70% of value on Villar's contract seems like you should at least be able to break even.

No, I have Davis now, and maybe I can get something for him in a deal, though his value is not high in my league (14 teamer). I believe he is my worst keeper, as I have a really strong keeper list filled with better talents (my second worse guy is McNeil, but I like him better than Davis).

I do not have Villar, but he is on a guaranteed contract for both 2021 and 2022. His owner extended him this preseason base don 2019 but has soured on him at his price and is offering him around for nothing in return. He has had no takers, which scares me on his trade/perceived value in our league right now. My league perceives him, at this moment, as a bad contract, it seems. Our finances are non-standard, but his price for next year is equivalent to about $30 in a standard league. Our inflation rate is high (over 80% on average), as we keep 15 major leaguers and 20 minor leaguers per team, so $30 is well under what he earned in 2019 in our format, but clearly no one in my league thinks he will out earn it in 2021 right now.

I know my league is too wonky to get into specifics, generally, and so my broader question is--do people think Villar is close to his 2019 self in 2021? It was a career year in terms of plate appearances, so I am guessing no. He isn't hitting the ball hard and he is a guy that can go from stud to dud quickly. Just trying to get a feel if people here are believers in general.

[Gregg]

What would 15 hr and 35 sbs be worth in your league?

For me the issue is I am a Davis owner and believer. I have him at $10 in my only league. I will have to play him out or give him a year raise to $15 not sure yet.

If I was in your shoes, I would look at what sbs are back in auction, how I felt about my keeper list and money to spend. If all is good and I could afford the gamble, I would take the chance. Even if it meant throwing Davis back and rebidding him at auction.

[chancellor]

I don't often disagree with Gregg, but will on this one. Teams that are likely to spend and have possible opportunities at 2B are also some teams that don't run much - Boston, Cubs, Minnesota all come to mind, and I think the Cubs will spend their money elsewhere. And the bulk of Villar's value lies in SBs. KC, if they're willing to spend, or Texas, if they're willing to recognize that Odor blows chunks (nah, I'm not bitter) would be better landing spots, but I think the odds tilt heavily against either of them signing him.

In your league, I'd way rather try and go buy Villar in the auction than have him tied to your roster as a keeper at $30 when you have better information, especially when compared to a $2 JD Davis.

[Teenwolf]

No, I have Davis now, and maybe I can get something for him in a deal, though his value is not high in my league (14 teamer). I believe he is my worst keeper, as I have a really strong keeper list filled with better talents (my second worse guy is McNeil, but I like him better than Davis).

I do not have Villar, but he is on a guaranteed contract for both 2021 and 2022. His owner extended him this preseason base don 2019 but has soured on him at his price and is offering him around for nothing in return. He has had no takers, which scares me on his trade/perceived value in our league right now. My league perceives him, at this moment, as a bad contract, it seems. Our finances are non-standard, but his price for next year is equivalent to about $30 in a standard league. Our inflation rate is high (over 80% on average), as we keep 15 major leaguers and 20 minor leaguers per team, so $30 is well under what he earned in 2019 in our format, but clearly no one in my league thinks he will out earn it in 2021 right now.

I know my league is too wonky to get into specifics, generally, and so my broader question is--do people think Villar is close to his 2019 self in 2021? It was a career year in terms of plate appearances, so I am guessing no. He isn't hitting the ball hard and he is a guy that can go from stud to dud quickly. Just trying to get a feel if people here are believers in general.

I have loved him in the past, but his 2019 numbers looked fluky when you dug into batted ball data. I'm guessing it was a product of the 2019 juiced ball.

Slap hitters with steals and average or worse defense can flame out quick. They're a volatile asset in general. Villar has all of his value tied to playing time, and he isn't guaranteed to get that. So i would pass.

Also, no way JD Davis at $2 is your 15th keeper. Especially if this league uses OBP. Bump him into your sure-thing keepers. Must be a worse one out of 15.

[Sour Masher]

Also, no way JD Davis at $2 is your 15th keeper. Especially if this league uses OBP. Bump him into your sure-thing keepers. Must be a worse one out of 15.

The 14 in front of Davis include two top 3bman,which is part of it, and entirely too many Mets, another part of it. They are (all at great prices) Olson, Merrifield, Lindor, Swanson, Bregman, Chapman, Conforto, McNeil, Nimmo, Fried, Lamet, Glasnow, Lynn, Carrasco.

[Gregg]

I don't often disagree with Gregg, but will on this one. Teams that are likely to spend and have possible opportunities at 2B are also some teams that don't run much - Boston, Cubs, Minnesota all come to mind, and I think the Cubs will spend their money elsewhere. And the bulk of Villar's value lies in SBs. KC, if they're willing to spend, or Texas, if they're willing to recognize that Odor blows chunks (nah, I'm not bitter) would be better landing spots, but I think the odds tilt heavily against either of them signing him.

In your league, I'd way rather try and go buy Villar in the auction than have him tied to your roster as a keeper at $30 when you have better information, especially when compared to a $2 JD Davis.

Except he won't be back in the auction. The owner has to keep him that is why he is giving him away. If he could be thrown back it would actually make it more tempting to take that chance now.

I would also suggest that no one will sign him unless they see value in his legs. Ave. defense is not why teams will want to sign him.

If I have 14 keepers that are so good and undervalue that a $2 Davis is my last keeper, I should have enough money to gamble on getting fantasy gold in the form of sbs without too much risk.