How much will this Short-Season Affect your '21 Valuations?

[revo]

Isn't it well known that this is Morton's last year?

Is it? Morton hasn't come out and said anything definitive about that.

From July 3:
“Part of me doesn’t really want to end my career this way, if I could help it. I really don’t want to go out because of this,” Morton said. “I’d like to think that I’ve been staying in good shape, I’ve been throwing and staying ready in preparation to help contribute, but I don’t know. When you jot [retirement] down in your head, the idea of a shortened season amidst a pandemic is not the way you really imagine it. I haven’t really made up my mind about that.”

https://www.mlb.com/news/charlie-morton-unsure-about-playing-past-2020

Bellinger seems to have this off and on thing going on, kind of like what Bret Saberhagen used to do. I always seems to have him on his off years. Still, I'm not sure he'll be much of a discount. Maybe he drops from a Top 5 draft pick to 2nd round.

[ShawnRobinson]

Not sure about that, Yelich was a top-5 player the past two years, I'm sure in most leagues at least two people will be willing to pay for a full rebound.

Exactly my point. In a normal season everyone would pick him top 5. The fact that only a few would next year could be a mistake.

[revo]

Exactly my point. In a normal season everyone would pick him top 5. The fact that only a few would next year could be a mistake.

He's still likely Top 5. I'd go:
1 - Tatis
2 - Acuna
3 - Yelich
4 - Trout
5 - Betts

I guess it's conceivable he drops out of the Top 5 in favor of maybe Turner or Story, but at worst he's still Top 10.

[harmon]

He's still likely Top 5. I'd go:
1 - Tatis
2 - Acuna
3 - Yelich
4 - Trout
5 - Betts

I guess it's conceivable he drops out of the Top 5 in favor of maybe Turner or Story, but at worst he's still Top 10.

Soto might be #1.

[ShawnRobinson]

Soto might be #1.

Ya agree Soto needs to be on that list. Maybe Yelich doesn’t make it after you break it down this way. Glad we are doing this!

[revo]

Soto might be #1.

He might, but he would probably only edge out Yelich. I think I'd still take Tatis & Acuna over him, so maybe #3 overall?

[Teenwolf]

I think it all depends on career trajectories and track record. Hitters under 1000 PA that experienced a breakout, I'm mostly buying. Guys like Luke Voit, Teoscar Hernandez, Ian Happ, JD Davis, Cavan Biggio, all guys I bought multiple shares of because I thought they could reach another level. If my pre-season evaluations are confirmed, thats when I feel secure in my assessment. Even Marcell Ozuna, the one stud I grabbed in 3 of my 5 leagues, he's showing that his 2019 batted ball metrics were better than his on field production, and the real life results are now catching up. I thought Ozuna was 99th percentile in both exit velo and barrels.

I will definitely try to scoop some SSS bargains, but the "sleeper" hype on rebounders might push them higher than normal as the industry pushes "sleepers" like crazy.

Reason I bought into Voit is his 2019 limped to a finish due to injury (I think 1-32 to finish '19). So you take out those injured stats and Voit is back to crushing. I like player development narratives that I can easily identify and put in context.

[Judge Jude]

lone caveat on Voit is he turns 30 in February and is listed at 255 pounds (6-3).

not exactly a dynasty league team captain.

still, he IS raking and the injury analysis of 2019 is spot-on. .285 BA is backed by a .292 xBA, too.

I don't see red flags for 2021.

[Gregg]

Not sure about that, Yelich was a top-5 player the past two years, I'm sure in most leagues at least two people will be willing to pay for a full rebound.

Yep. I traded for him to compete, then traded him away to rebuild. I think he may be kept at $53 next year.

[revo]

Amed Rosario: I paid for the steals, I stayed for the garbage.

[chancellor]

LOL on Rosario - in my 15-team mixed, I focused on OF and CIs early, and was overjoyed when I landed Amed and Elvis at what I thought were bargain draft positions. Oops.

My AL only will be a challenge to figure out keepers in - I have Pedro Severino at 3, JIglesias at 6, Rowdy Tellez at 10, Keuchel at 8, and a returning Severino at 6. I'll likely be able to keep three of the five, possibly four. I suspect Iglesias will be the first off the island as his BABIP is unsustainably high, but if I can't cut a deal to open up an additional slot, I'm not sure who to throw out next.