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Thread: How much will this Short-Season Affect your '21 Valuations?

  1. #1
    Administrator revo's Avatar
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    How much will this Short-Season Affect your '21 Valuations?

    Some players are unquestionably going to get a massive boost from their 60 game season stats. Fernando Tatis is likely the #1 overall pick and Shane Bieber the #1 pitcher. Players like Mike Yazstrzemski, Teoscar Hernandez, Luke Voit, etc. have certainly seen their stature rise considerably, but how much have they risen? How much have some players fallen, like JD Martinez, Kris Bryant, etc.?

    For instance, is there anyone out there who will draft Jose Altuve over Brandon Lowe? Will Dansby Swanson go over Gleyber Torres or Javier Baez?

    How much are you going to forgive these massive underperformers, or toss out major outperformers?

  2. #2
    All Star Sour Masher's Avatar
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    This is a great question. It has amazed me how many of my leaguemates have fallen into the SSS trap this year. I get it for the contenders--I have ridden hot hands all year. But those who are playing for next year paid up for guys with a very short track record.

    As with all things, I think this is case by case. Tatis and Bieber, for instance, are legit superstars who maybe are not 1 and 1 next year, but it is hard to argue against taking them at those spots. Fallen players on the wrong side of 30 are probably the ones I will most shy away from. Over the course of 162 games, I absolutely believe a guy like JD Martinez, for instance, would have clawed his way back to respectable numbers. But they would still not have been what anyone paid for this year, and at 34, he is likely just not the guy he once was, and may not ever be close to that again. Altuve is now 30 and I think it is safe to say, not just based on this year, but a trend over the lasts couple of years, that he is past his prime as well. I am not sure I am all in on Brandon Lowe, but him over Altuve seems like a legit decision to grapple with. I have long believed in Swanson, and I traded Luzardo for him last year, so his performance is real to me. I plan on extending him, and I would take him over Baez but not Torres.

  3. #3
    How about Jeimer Candelario?
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  4. #4
    Age will be a factor, plus injuries/lost COVID time, plus underlying stats like BABIP. Some will be gut read, too.

    I hope I have time to do the pitching tiers; I think it'll be awfully fun this year.
    I'm just here for the baseball.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by DMT View Post
    How about Jeimer Candelario?
    Some, not all. He's not .410 BABIP good. That said, he was a highly regarded hitting prospect in the Cubs organization. I think he's better than the putridness of the previous two years, but I'm not sure if that translates to .250-.260 or .275-.285. But I'm highly confident it won't translate to .325/.385/.590 which is what I think he's around right now.
    I'm just here for the baseball.

  6. #6
    Welcome to the Big Leagues, Kid Pauly's Avatar
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    Recency bias is REAL, and next year's drafts will be an amazing opportunity to make a killing because of it. Even "smart" fantasy players will fall for this and the shrewd ones who understand small samples will dominate in 2021.

    The most important list is the one with the under-performers on it - Bellinger, Garver, etc. etc. etc. - eliminate the aged like JDM and Altuve and believe in a massive bounceback for the rest. You won't be sorry.

  7. #7
    Me neither. I wasn't happy when the Cubs traded him, especially for the return they got (some garbage LH RP). I saw him hit one of the hardest balls I've ever witnessed live in a ST game.
    If DMT didn't exist we would have to invent it. There has to be a weirdest thing. Once we have the concept weird, there has to be a weirdest thing. And DMT is simply it.
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    Bullshit is everywhere. - George Carlin (& Jon Stewart)

    How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are? - Satchel Paige

  8. #8
    Administrator revo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pauly View Post
    Recency bias is REAL, and next year's drafts will be an amazing opportunity to make a killing because of it. Even "smart" fantasy players will fall for this and the shrewd ones who understand small samples will dominate in 2021.

    The most important list is the one with the under-performers on it - Bellinger, Garver, etc. etc. etc. - eliminate the aged like JDM and Altuve and believe in a massive bounceback for the rest. You won't be sorry.
    Here's a list of "Massive Underperformers":
    Jo Adell
    David Dahl
    Nomar Mazara
    Kris Bryant
    Gregory Polanco
    Austin Meadows
    JD Martinez
    Victor Robles
    Byron Buxton
    Ketel Marte
    Joey Gallo
    Jeff McNeil
    James Paxton
    Charlie Morton
    Frankie Montas
    Lance McCullers
    Patrick Corbin

    Some players on this list are easy bounceback players -- Meadows, Corbin, Gallo
    Some are big question marks - Robles, Marte, Bryant, Adell, McNeil, Paxton
    Some are too far gone - Dahl, Mazara

  9. #9
    Welcome to the Big Leagues, Kid Pauly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by revo View Post
    Here's a list of "Massive Underperformers":
    Jo Adell
    David Dahl
    Nomar Mazara
    Kris Bryant
    Gregory Polanco
    Austin Meadows
    JD Martinez
    Victor Robles
    Byron Buxton
    Ketel Marte
    Joey Gallo
    Jeff McNeil
    James Paxton
    Charlie Morton
    Frankie Montas
    Lance McCullers
    Patrick Corbin

    Some players on this list are easy bounceback players -- Meadows, Corbin, Gallo
    Some are big question marks - Robles, Marte, Bryant, Adell, McNeil, Paxton
    Some are too far gone - Dahl, Mazara
    Interesting list...
    As I said earlier, Bellinger should be on it (yes, he had nowhere to go but down from last year, but still, dude is struggling). I would nix all of the old guys like charlie morton or paxton because it could really be a decline.

    Just off the top of my head, here are some more hitters who look like they will be great bargains in 2021:
    • Mondesi
    • Muncy
    • Albies (perhaps the long injury will counteract)
    • Moncada
    • Gleyber
    • Gary Sanchez
    • Springer
    • Rizzo
    • Ohtani

    On the older side:
    • Semien
    • Eduardo Escobar
    • Pham
    • Moustakas
    • Carlos Santana

  10. #10
    All Star Ken's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pauly View Post
    old guys like charlie morton or paxton because it could really be a decline.
    Isn't it well known that this is Morton's last year?

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