How much will this Short-Season Affect your '21 Valuations?

[revo]

Some players are unquestionably going to get a massive boost from their 60 game season stats. Fernando Tatis is likely the #1 overall pick and Shane Bieber the #1 pitcher. Players like Mike Yazstrzemski, Teoscar Hernandez, Luke Voit, etc. have certainly seen their stature rise considerably, but how much have they risen? How much have some players fallen, like JD Martinez, Kris Bryant, etc.?

For instance, is there anyone out there who will draft Jose Altuve over Brandon Lowe? Will Dansby Swanson go over Gleyber Torres or Javier Baez?

How much are you going to forgive these massive underperformers, or toss out major outperformers?

[Sour Masher]

This is a great question. It has amazed me how many of my leaguemates have fallen into the SSS trap this year. I get it for the contenders--I have ridden hot hands all year. But those who are playing for next year paid up for guys with a very short track record.

As with all things, I think this is case by case. Tatis and Bieber, for instance, are legit superstars who maybe are not 1 and 1 next year, but it is hard to argue against taking them at those spots. Fallen players on the wrong side of 30 are probably the ones I will most shy away from. Over the course of 162 games, I absolutely believe a guy like JD Martinez, for instance, would have clawed his way back to respectable numbers. But they would still not have been what anyone paid for this year, and at 34, he is likely just not the guy he once was, and may not ever be close to that again. Altuve is now 30 and I think it is safe to say, not just based on this year, but a trend over the lasts couple of years, that he is past his prime as well. I am not sure I am all in on Brandon Lowe, but him over Altuve seems like a legit decision to grapple with. I have long believed in Swanson, and I traded Luzardo for him last year, so his performance is real to me. I plan on extending him, and I would take him over Baez but not Torres.

[DMT]

How about Jeimer Candelario?

[chancellor]

Age will be a factor, plus injuries/lost COVID time, plus underlying stats like BABIP. Some will be gut read, too.

I hope I have time to do the pitching tiers; I think it'll be awfully fun this year.

[chancellor]

How about Jeimer Candelario?

Some, not all. He's not .410 BABIP good. That said, he was a highly regarded hitting prospect in the Cubs organization. I think he's better than the putridness of the previous two years, but I'm not sure if that translates to .250-.260 or .275-.285. But I'm highly confident it won't translate to .325/.385/.590 which is what I think he's around right now.

[Pauly]

Recency bias is REAL, and next year's drafts will be an amazing opportunity to make a killing because of it. Even "smart" fantasy players will fall for this and the shrewd ones who understand small samples will dominate in 2021.

The most important list is the one with the under-performers on it - Bellinger, Garver, etc. etc. etc. - eliminate the aged like JDM and Altuve and believe in a massive bounceback for the rest. You won't be sorry.

[DMT]

Me neither. I wasn't happy when the Cubs traded him, especially for the return they got (some garbage LH RP). I saw him hit one of the hardest balls I've ever witnessed live in a ST game.

[revo]

Recency bias is REAL, and next year's drafts will be an amazing opportunity to make a killing because of it. Even "smart" fantasy players will fall for this and the shrewd ones who understand small samples will dominate in 2021.

The most important list is the one with the under-performers on it - Bellinger, Garver, etc. etc. etc. - eliminate the aged like JDM and Altuve and believe in a massive bounceback for the rest. You won't be sorry.

Here's a list of "Massive Underperformers":
Jo Adell
David Dahl
Nomar Mazara
Kris Bryant
Gregory Polanco
Austin Meadows
JD Martinez
Victor Robles
Byron Buxton
Ketel Marte
Joey Gallo
Jeff McNeil
James Paxton
Charlie Morton
Frankie Montas
Lance McCullers
Patrick Corbin

Some players on this list are easy bounceback players -- Meadows, Corbin, Gallo
Some are big question marks - Robles, Marte, Bryant, Adell, McNeil, Paxton
Some are too far gone - Dahl, Mazara

[Pauly]

Here's a list of "Massive Underperformers":
Jo Adell
David Dahl
Nomar Mazara
Kris Bryant
Gregory Polanco
Austin Meadows
JD Martinez
Victor Robles
Byron Buxton
Ketel Marte
Joey Gallo
Jeff McNeil
James Paxton
Charlie Morton
Frankie Montas
Lance McCullers
Patrick Corbin

Some players on this list are easy bounceback players -- Meadows, Corbin, Gallo
Some are big question marks - Robles, Marte, Bryant, Adell, McNeil, Paxton
Some are too far gone - Dahl, Mazara

Interesting list...
As I said earlier, Bellinger should be on it (yes, he had nowhere to go but down from last year, but still, dude is struggling). I would nix all of the old guys like charlie morton or paxton because it could really be a decline.

Just off the top of my head, here are some more hitters who look like they will be great bargains in 2021:

• Mondesi
• Muncy
• Albies (perhaps the long injury will counteract)
• Moncada
• Gleyber
• Gary Sanchez
• Springer
• Rizzo
• Ohtani

On the older side:

• Semien
• Eduardo Escobar
• Pham
• Moustakas
• Carlos Santana

[Ken]

old guys like charlie morton or paxton because it could really be a decline.

Isn't it well known that this is Morton's last year?

[Pauly]

Isn't it well known that this is Morton's last year?

He was on revo's list and I wanted to point out that old pitchers are not in my wheelhouse lol

[Pauly]

by the way these two lists are like a who's who of the RJ NFBC team

[GwynnInTheHall]

I'd have to believe salaries will be lower as owners will be risk adverse if covid is still a concern in the 2021 season. Spread the risk rather than Stars and scrubs. Dishing out 25% of your budget on one guy only to see him Opt Out or get sick has ruined many a roster this season.

[ShawnRobinson]

Recency bias is REAL, and next year's drafts will be an amazing opportunity to make a killing because of it. Even "smart" fantasy players will fall for this and the shrewd ones who understand small samples will dominate in 2021.

The most important list is the one with the under-performers on it - Bellinger, Garver, etc. etc. etc. - eliminate the aged like JDM and Altuve and believe in a massive bounceback for the rest. You won't be sorry.

Yelich is definitely one that comes to mind.

[DMT]

Yelich is definitely one that comes to mind.

Not sure about that, Yelich was a top-5 player the past two years, I'm sure in most leagues at least two people will be willing to pay for a full rebound.