When to take your foot off the gas--Trading for Nola as a Luxury

[Sour Masher]

I've made a lot of moves lately in a tight race to the finish. I traded a lot of prospects, and some one and dones for high performing keepers in an attempt to find a balance between this year and the future. Typically, I go all in to win and don't mess around, but this year is so short and volatile, I figured I'd hedge. This thread is about how much I should continue to hedge and if, in fact, trading Pablo Lopez and a top prospect for Aaron Nola represents a significant upgrade for me.

I have recently acquired Dilson Lamet, Max Fried, and Pablo Lopez in an attempt to lock down pitching, which I was already strong in. I am feeling good about my staff. But someone frustrated with other owners not offering enough has put Aaron Nola on the table for Pablo Lopez $2 and prospect Brandon Marsh. Normally, I'd do this without thinking, but two things give me pause.

1. Nola was extended till next year at a price very close to his retail value (my league is unusual, so I'll just leave it at that). It isn't a bad contract, just one without much if any profit, but Pablo Lopez represents more value at $2.
2. I don't think I need Nola. My default is to go with the proven talent every day and twice on Sunday, but the more I look at Pablo, the more I see someone who isn't going to turn into a pumpkin overnight on me. His underlying numbers support his era and whip, crazy as it seem--his FIP of 2.26 is nearly as low as his 2.1 era, for instance. I am uncertain how much more I will get out of Nola than Pablo over the remaining weeks and given that I am giving more long term value, I am shying away.

But I sure will hate myself if not doing this deal on the table costs me a title. So, my two questions are,

1. When do you let up with trading? I feel like is it similar to the convo we had about dumb unwritten rules about running up the score on an opponent late. I usually want to leave no doubt about victory. I will trade until every roster spot is filled with as good a player as I can get.
2. In this case, am I actually improving dramatically if I acquire Nola for Pablo Lopez for the ROS--enough to justify the loss in keeper value and the top prospect (we keep 20 prospects in a 14 team league, so replacement level in the minors isn't high)?

[virgonomic]

Flags fly forever. Nola is an bona fide stud and I think you should get him. Lopez's wins will be limited going forward because he will have a crappy team behind him. Foot...throat. You know the rest.

Good luck.

[Judge Jude]

it IS a small sample size, but Nola's xERA is superior to PLopez's.

me, I traded away 5-S2 prospects in 2017 named Acuna and Buehler for a lame duck ESuarez and an overpriced Harper - and won by so many points that I might have won without the deal.

of course, without the deal, rivals would have had hope. I stepped on their necks and pulled their hearts out of their chests.

and they knew after that deal that if they were impudent enough to still challenge me - well, I'd remove other vital organs.



so they surrendered.

the other owner won in 2018 and 2019. but flags fly forever.

I made a minor deadline deal in 2018 to try to annex 3rd place by gaining a point in AVG - swapping EHernandez 1 for a lame duck ARussell.

EHern - a keeper - finished like Tony Gwynn and Russell hit like - well, one of Gwynn's kids, not even that really.

so I cost myself money in both the short and long runs.

but when I smell blood.... run for your lives.

#flagsflyforever

alternate version: if you're savvy enough to draft good prospects, you'll be savvy enough to draft more.

[Sour Masher]

Thanks. It is generally my instinct. I am just so deep in pitching now, and already well up on that side of things, I was tempted to get complacent. Even with this deal, though, it will be tight, given my offense...lots of big names, but they are not quite getting it done so far. Losing Bergman did not help and there is really nothing left out there to help me. But I guess that is all the more reason to widen the lead in pitching.

I do like Pablo, though. If any of you can get him cheap from an owner than thinks he is playing way over his head, I would sniff around and pay for a guy whose performance to date may be only slightly over his head. And he team is not quite so crappy this year.

[Sour Masher]

Well, I accepted, but too late it seems...he found another deal he liked more. He took Taillon $5 and Deivi Garcia over Lopez and Marsh. I even offerred to include a cheap Jeff McNeil, but I guess his SSS of crappiness this year has soured him. Ah well, having a guaranteed arm at full value next year made me nervous anyway--if he got hurt, I'd be on the hook for his full salary. I prefer Lopez over Taillon, but to each their own.

[chancellor]

Well, I accepted, but too late it seems...he found another deal he liked more. He took Taillon $5 and Deivi Garcia over Lopez and Marsh.

After seeing Deivi Garcia, I can see why he grabbed that offer.

[Sour Masher]

After seeing Deivi Garcia, I can see why he grabbed that offer.

How far did you have to look down before you noticed him . I kid, I kid. He did look great, and that game is likely what got that deal done. It helps that the guy trading Nola does not have short man bias with pitchers. His favorite pitcher is Marcus Stroman, so yeah, no discount for Deivi's height from him.

[chancellor]

How far did you have to look down before you noticed him . I kid, I kid. He did look great, and that game is likely what got that deal done. It helps that the guy trading Nola does not have short man bias with pitchers. His favorite pitcher is Marcus Stroman, so yeah, no discount for Deivi's height from him.

Pretty far.

Seriously, I'd never seen Deivi pitch, other than a couple clips taken. I can see why the Yankees weren't willing to part with him under any circumstances.

[Judge Jude]

Garcia's "spin rate" apparently is remarkable, and that's coin of the realm these days.

I own a cheap PLopez in my 2020-mothballed league and am bullish on him, fwiw.

[Sour Masher]

I am still in the playoffs and do not want to jinx it with Pablo pitching well for me, but the Deivi Garcia owner has offered to swap him for my $2 Pablo Lopez in the off-season. Garcia would be free next year and $5 once called up. Which would you prefer?

[Judge Jude]

I own Pablo for 1 - and would walk barefoot across broken glass to grab Garcia in those parameters.

[chancellor]

I am still in the playoffs and do not want to jinx it with Pablo pitching well for me, but the Deivi Garcia owner has offered to swap him for my $2 Pablo Lopez in the off-season. Garcia would be free next year and $5 once called up. Which would you prefer?

In the off-season? I grab Deivi Garcia and down a good beer in celebration.

Pablo Lopez is a good pitcher - and he's done some serious work to improve himself, and the results have shown and are legit. But even with that, he's still a 4ish ERA (with some improvement upside based on FIP), 8.5-9.0 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, mid 1.2ish WHIP (with some improvement upside to low 1.2s) pitcher with a decent defense and good park to pitch in. Solid guy, nice plug and play type, good #3-4 fantasy SP.

But Deivi Garcia has monster upside - #1 SP potential - and even if he wouldn't quite hit that, he has a vastly better offense and bullpen backing him up. And he's still free next year? Nice.

[Sour Masher]

I guess I have the short pitcher bias, and a fear of what that bandbox can do to the era of less-than-ace level starters. JJ and Chance, is your take on this based on his minors track record or his performance in the majors this year? Prospect reports don't have him with that ace upside, with some places leaving him off their top 100 lists, but maybe that is largely based on his size.

ETA: But yeah, I wanna say yes to this, just not sure it matters right now, cuz a trade can't be official until the offseason. A bad start by Pablo and he might get cold feet. I guess saying yes puts the onus on him to back out.

[chancellor]

I guess I have the short pitcher bias, and a fear of what that bandbox can do to the era of less-than-ace level starters. JJ and Chance, is your take on this based on his minors track record or his performance in the majors this year? Prospect reports don't have him with that ace upside, with some places leaving him off their top 100 lists, but maybe that is largely based on his size.

ETA: But yeah, I wanna say yes to this, just not sure it matters right now, cuz a trade can't be official until the offseason. A bad start by Pablo and he might get cold feet. I guess saying yes puts the onus on him to back out.

I think part of it is size, part of it was his first run at AAA competition, and part of it is he's not a 99 MPH fastball guy. But his FB is up 2 MPH in two years (also with great spin rate), his curveball is elite (off the charts spin rate), and he's really nailed down his change. And he's only 21, so he's likely a fixture in the Yankees rotation for a while.

There's a lot of other intangibles I really like about him - he's worked hard at his craft by all accounts (he's now working on a slider), really improved his command (likely by stopping trying to strike everyone out), and sure has good presence for such a young player.

Per your question about minors/majors performance, my answer is both. He showed very elite K rates early in in minor league career, though his walk rates were higher than they should have been. I liked his response to his less than great start to AAA ball - working hard at turning his change into a usable pitch, and it's paid off. His mechanics are cleaner and more repeatable.

[Sour Masher]

Deal is tentatively done. Here is hoping Pablo does well to help me win ros, and to not blow up this deal .