I've made a lot of moves lately in a tight race to the finish. I traded a lot of prospects, and some one and dones for high performing keepers in an attempt to find a balance between this year and the future. Typically, I go all in to win and don't mess around, but this year is so short and volatile, I figured I'd hedge. This thread is about how much I should continue to hedge and if, in fact, trading Pablo Lopez and a top prospect for Aaron Nola represents a significant upgrade for me.
I have recently acquired Dilson Lamet, Max Fried, and Pablo Lopez in an attempt to lock down pitching, which I was already strong in. I am feeling good about my staff. But someone frustrated with other owners not offering enough has put Aaron Nola on the table for Pablo Lopez $2 and prospect Brandon Marsh. Normally, I'd do this without thinking, but two things give me pause.
1. Nola was extended till next year at a price very close to his retail value (my league is unusual, so I'll just leave it at that). It isn't a bad contract, just one without much if any profit, but Pablo Lopez represents more value at $2.
2. I don't think I need Nola. My default is to go with the proven talent every day and twice on Sunday, but the more I look at Pablo, the more I see someone who isn't going to turn into a pumpkin overnight on me. His underlying numbers support his era and whip, crazy as it seem--his FIP of 2.26 is nearly as low as his 2.1 era, for instance. I am uncertain how much more I will get out of Nola than Pablo over the remaining weeks and given that I am giving more long term value, I am shying away.
But I sure will hate myself if not doing this deal on the table costs me a title. So, my two questions are,
1. When do you let up with trading? I feel like is it similar to the convo we had about dumb unwritten rules about running up the score on an opponent late. I usually want to leave no doubt about victory. I will trade until every roster spot is filled with as good a player as I can get.
2. In this case, am I actually improving dramatically if I acquire Nola for Pablo Lopez for the ROS--enough to justify the loss in keeper value and the top prospect (we keep 20 prospects in a 14 team league, so replacement level in the minors isn't high)?
I have recently acquired Dilson Lamet, Max Fried, and Pablo Lopez in an attempt to lock down pitching, which I was already strong in. I am feeling good about my staff. But someone frustrated with other owners not offering enough has put Aaron Nola on the table for Pablo Lopez $2 and prospect Brandon Marsh. Normally, I'd do this without thinking, but two things give me pause.
1. Nola was extended till next year at a price very close to his retail value (my league is unusual, so I'll just leave it at that). It isn't a bad contract, just one without much if any profit, but Pablo Lopez represents more value at $2.
2. I don't think I need Nola. My default is to go with the proven talent every day and twice on Sunday, but the more I look at Pablo, the more I see someone who isn't going to turn into a pumpkin overnight on me. His underlying numbers support his era and whip, crazy as it seem--his FIP of 2.26 is nearly as low as his 2.1 era, for instance. I am uncertain how much more I will get out of Nola than Pablo over the remaining weeks and given that I am giving more long term value, I am shying away.
But I sure will hate myself if not doing this deal on the table costs me a title. So, my two questions are,
1. When do you let up with trading? I feel like is it similar to the convo we had about dumb unwritten rules about running up the score on an opponent late. I usually want to leave no doubt about victory. I will trade until every roster spot is filled with as good a player as I can get.
2. In this case, am I actually improving dramatically if I acquire Nola for Pablo Lopez for the ROS--enough to justify the loss in keeper value and the top prospect (we keep 20 prospects in a 14 team league, so replacement level in the minors isn't high)?
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