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Thread: When to take your foot off the gas--Trading for Nola as a Luxury

  1. #1
    All Star Sour Masher's Avatar
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    When to take your foot off the gas--Trading for Nola as a Luxury

    I've made a lot of moves lately in a tight race to the finish. I traded a lot of prospects, and some one and dones for high performing keepers in an attempt to find a balance between this year and the future. Typically, I go all in to win and don't mess around, but this year is so short and volatile, I figured I'd hedge. This thread is about how much I should continue to hedge and if, in fact, trading Pablo Lopez and a top prospect for Aaron Nola represents a significant upgrade for me.

    I have recently acquired Dilson Lamet, Max Fried, and Pablo Lopez in an attempt to lock down pitching, which I was already strong in. I am feeling good about my staff. But someone frustrated with other owners not offering enough has put Aaron Nola on the table for Pablo Lopez $2 and prospect Brandon Marsh. Normally, I'd do this without thinking, but two things give me pause.

    1. Nola was extended till next year at a price very close to his retail value (my league is unusual, so I'll just leave it at that). It isn't a bad contract, just one without much if any profit, but Pablo Lopez represents more value at $2.
    2. I don't think I need Nola. My default is to go with the proven talent every day and twice on Sunday, but the more I look at Pablo, the more I see someone who isn't going to turn into a pumpkin overnight on me. His underlying numbers support his era and whip, crazy as it seem--his FIP of 2.26 is nearly as low as his 2.1 era, for instance. I am uncertain how much more I will get out of Nola than Pablo over the remaining weeks and given that I am giving more long term value, I am shying away.

    But I sure will hate myself if not doing this deal on the table costs me a title. So, my two questions are,

    1. When do you let up with trading? I feel like is it similar to the convo we had about dumb unwritten rules about running up the score on an opponent late. I usually want to leave no doubt about victory. I will trade until every roster spot is filled with as good a player as I can get.
    2. In this case, am I actually improving dramatically if I acquire Nola for Pablo Lopez for the ROS--enough to justify the loss in keeper value and the top prospect (we keep 20 prospects in a 14 team league, so replacement level in the minors isn't high)?

  2. #2
    Journeyman
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    Flags fly forever. Nola is an bona fide stud and I think you should get him. Lopez's wins will be limited going forward because he will have a crappy team behind him. Foot...throat. You know the rest.

    Good luck.

    The FOS | MTARBL Champions 01/05/17 | Runner up 13/14/15/20
    12 Team AL 5x5

  3. #3
    it IS a small sample size, but Nola's xERA is superior to PLopez's.

    me, I traded away 5-S2 prospects in 2017 named Acuna and Buehler for a lame duck ESuarez and an overpriced Harper - and won by so many points that I might have won without the deal.

    of course, without the deal, rivals would have had hope. I stepped on their necks and pulled their hearts out of their chests.

    and they knew after that deal that if they were impudent enough to still challenge me - well, I'd remove other vital organs.



    so they surrendered.

    the other owner won in 2018 and 2019. but flags fly forever.

    I made a minor deadline deal in 2018 to try to annex 3rd place by gaining a point in AVG - swapping EHernandez 1 for a lame duck ARussell.

    EHern - a keeper - finished like Tony Gwynn and Russell hit like - well, one of Gwynn's kids, not even that really.

    so I cost myself money in both the short and long runs.

    but when I smell blood.... run for your lives.

    #flagsflyforever

    alternate version: if you're savvy enough to draft good prospects, you'll be savvy enough to draft more.
    entering 37th yr in 12-team NL 5x5 - in 2021, after a year off
    won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

    2021 37th-year Rotissierie keeper candidates
    SP - Scherzer 44-S1, Marquez 10-S1, CSmith 1-O, Cueto 1-S1, Samardzija 1-S1
    RP -
    INF - C Realmuto 13-O, 1O Belt 10-S1, 1O Cooper 10-S1, SS Crawford 9-S1
    OF - CDickerson 17-S1
    FARM - HRamos, Baty, Niedert, JOrtiz
    have first pick in mid-April farm draft

  4. #4
    All Star Sour Masher's Avatar
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    Thanks. It is generally my instinct. I am just so deep in pitching now, and already well up on that side of things, I was tempted to get complacent. Even with this deal, though, it will be tight, given my offense...lots of big names, but they are not quite getting it done so far. Losing Bergman did not help and there is really nothing left out there to help me. But I guess that is all the more reason to widen the lead in pitching.

    I do like Pablo, though. If any of you can get him cheap from an owner than thinks he is playing way over his head, I would sniff around and pay for a guy whose performance to date may be only slightly over his head. And he team is not quite so crappy this year.

  5. #5
    All Star Sour Masher's Avatar
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    Well, I accepted, but too late it seems...he found another deal he liked more. He took Taillon $5 and Deivi Garcia over Lopez and Marsh. I even offerred to include a cheap Jeff McNeil, but I guess his SSS of crappiness this year has soured him. Ah well, having a guaranteed arm at full value next year made me nervous anyway--if he got hurt, I'd be on the hook for his full salary. I prefer Lopez over Taillon, but to each their own.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Sour Masher View Post
    Well, I accepted, but too late it seems...he found another deal he liked more. He took Taillon $5 and Deivi Garcia over Lopez and Marsh.
    After seeing Deivi Garcia, I can see why he grabbed that offer.
    I'm just here for the baseball.

  7. #7
    All Star Sour Masher's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by chancellor View Post
    After seeing Deivi Garcia, I can see why he grabbed that offer.
    How far did you have to look down before you noticed him . I kid, I kid. He did look great, and that game is likely what got that deal done. It helps that the guy trading Nola does not have short man bias with pitchers. His favorite pitcher is Marcus Stroman, so yeah, no discount for Deivi's height from him.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Sour Masher View Post
    How far did you have to look down before you noticed him . I kid, I kid. He did look great, and that game is likely what got that deal done. It helps that the guy trading Nola does not have short man bias with pitchers. His favorite pitcher is Marcus Stroman, so yeah, no discount for Deivi's height from him.
    Pretty far.

    Seriously, I'd never seen Deivi pitch, other than a couple clips taken. I can see why the Yankees weren't willing to part with him under any circumstances.
    I'm just here for the baseball.

  9. #9
    Garcia's "spin rate" apparently is remarkable, and that's coin of the realm these days.

    I own a cheap PLopez in my 2020-mothballed league and am bullish on him, fwiw.
    entering 37th yr in 12-team NL 5x5 - in 2021, after a year off
    won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

    2021 37th-year Rotissierie keeper candidates
    SP - Scherzer 44-S1, Marquez 10-S1, CSmith 1-O, Cueto 1-S1, Samardzija 1-S1
    RP -
    INF - C Realmuto 13-O, 1O Belt 10-S1, 1O Cooper 10-S1, SS Crawford 9-S1
    OF - CDickerson 17-S1
    FARM - HRamos, Baty, Niedert, JOrtiz
    have first pick in mid-April farm draft

  10. #10
    All Star Sour Masher's Avatar
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    I am still in the playoffs and do not want to jinx it with Pablo pitching well for me, but the Deivi Garcia owner has offered to swap him for my $2 Pablo Lopez in the off-season. Garcia would be free next year and $5 once called up. Which would you prefer?

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