Minor Leagues in 2021

[revo]

Just curious, as I was discussing it today with a friend, that while I believe there's no way on earth the 2021 MLB season will be any less than a normal 162 game season, I'm not so sure about the minor leagues. MLB could survive without fans due to the TV revenue, but the minor leagues can't. They get 100% of their revenue from game day revenue. They need fans in the stands to survive.

If in 2021 it's still not possible to have a full crowd, many of these minor league teams won't survive and/or MLB won't send their players there. As 2 years away from competitive play would be disastrous for their careers, it's possible that MLB will have all their minor leaguers in a bubble, playing games against other team's MLers. If that's the case, we could see a complete change in how MLB organizations handle their prospects on a permanent basis.

What do you think will happen with the minor leagues next year?

[Sour Masher]

I think a radical change in player development would be bad for baseball in the long run, and the shuttering of many more or most minor league teams would be very bad for baseball. If there can be no fans in the stands next year, I think MLB must step in to keep these teams afloat. It is a small investment in the future of a sport with an aging demographic. You are not going to stave off the slow fading of the sport by reducing its exposure.

[revo]

I think a radical change in player development would be bad for baseball in the long run, and the shuttering of many more or most minor league teams would be very bad for baseball. If there can be no fans in the stands next year, I think MLB must step in to keep these teams afloat. It is a small investment in the future of a sport with an aging demographic. You are not going to stave off the slow fading of the sport by reducing its exposure.

Well, it kind of coincides with the shedding of ML teams by MLB, with 40 teams expected to be released from their contracts with the big clubs. You bring up an interesting point, but not sure if they're willing to take that step.

[chancellor]

I'm very much less optimistic; as revo notes, MLB is looking to shed teams and invest less in the minor leagues, and I don't think the ability for fans to attend games will be available in many states, even by April/May, 2021.

[revo]

I'm very much less optimistic; as revo notes, MLB is looking to shed teams and invest less in the minor leagues, and I don't think the ability for fans to attend games will be available in many states, even by April/May, 2021.

Yep, agreed. So what do you think these minor league franchises do? They can’t survive without fans, and I don’t think MLB will subsidize them.

[chancellor]

Yep, agreed. So what do you think these minor league franchises do? They can’t survive without fans, and I don’t think MLB will subsidize them.

They fold, en masse. That's what I see as the most likely outcome. MLB will need to figure out what they'll need/want to do with the wreckage. Given the present level of incompetence at the MLB ownership level - as proven by how poorly prepared they were for a significant financial incident like this - my suspicion is they will choose poorly.

[Teenwolf]

Here's my take. MLB has always had the most expansive (owners read "expensive") network of minor league teams at several levels of play. The NHL comes close with several levels of developmental leagues, plus some professional European leagues supporting developing players. NFL and NBA on the other hand are entirely lacking in minor league developmental systems. The NBA "D-League", which I believe stands for developmental league, is a smallish bubble league for guys not on the roster, but with only 12 starting spots per team, development leagues don't produce stars. The stars are evident out of high school. Maybe a more avid NBA or NFL fan could correct me.

All that said, I hate not having minor league stats to analyze. Its been my favorite thing for nearly a decade now, more than watching major league events, i would track the minors. So I'm pissed that the quality and number of developmental options was set to go down before the pandemic. Now its a perfect excuse to make drastic cuts, and to carry the threat of more minor league teams being eliminated into the next collective bargaining negotiations... all seems like a recipe for disaster.

Prospects will be much harder to analyze, based on outdated scouting, team based hype, and less reliable Arizona Fall League style stats that won't hold nearly as much predictive value, with wide ranges of talent included in 1 league. It sucks, but it is the reality that the US is dealing with, and I don't see any better solutions.

[revo]

Here's my take. MLB has always had the most expansive (owners read "expensive") network of minor league teams at several levels of play. The NHL comes close with several levels of developmental leagues, plus some professional European leagues supporting developing players. NFL and NBA on the other hand are entirely lacking in minor league developmental systems. The NBA "D-League", which I believe stands for developmental league, is a smallish bubble league for guys not on the roster, but with only 12 starting spots per team, development leagues don't produce stars. The stars are evident out of high school. Maybe a more avid NBA or NFL fan could correct me.

All that said, I hate not having minor league stats to analyze. Its been my favorite thing for nearly a decade now, more than watching major league events, i would track the minors. So I'm pissed that the quality and number of developmental options was set to go down before the pandemic. Now its a perfect excuse to make drastic cuts, and to carry the threat of more minor league teams being eliminated into the next collective bargaining negotiations... all seems like a recipe for disaster.

Prospects will be much harder to analyze, based on outdated scouting, team based hype, and less reliable Arizona Fall League style stats that won't hold nearly as much predictive value, with wide ranges of talent included in 1 league. It sucks, but it is the reality that the US is dealing with, and I don't see any better solutions.

It's unfortunate, and if something like this comes to pass, it will spell the end for hundreds of minor leaguers. There will no longer be a real need to have those career MLer types or Quad-A guys. MLB teams will just keep their core 100 prospects and that's that. It may also lead to drastic changes to the CBA, as better prospects may find themselves being promoted quicker (maybe that's a good thing).

[Kevin Seitzer]

There will no longer be a real need to have those career MLer types or Quad-A guys.

I don't follow this. Those guys function as major league depth, primarily at Triple-A, and that will still be a need going forward. Teams can't stockpile all the depth they want on a 40-man roster.

[Kevin Seitzer]

Here's my take. MLB has always had the most expansive (owners read "expensive") network of minor league teams at several levels of play. The NHL comes close with several levels of developmental leagues, plus some professional European leagues supporting developing players. NFL and NBA on the other hand are entirely lacking in minor league developmental systems. The NBA "D-League", which I believe stands for developmental league, is a smallish bubble league for guys not on the roster, but with only 12 starting spots per team, development leagues don't produce stars. The stars are evident out of high school. Maybe a more avid NBA or NFL fan could correct me.

All that said, I hate not having minor league stats to analyze. Its been my favorite thing for nearly a decade now, more than watching major league events, i would track the minors. So I'm pissed that the quality and number of developmental options was set to go down before the pandemic. Now its a perfect excuse to make drastic cuts, and to carry the threat of more minor league teams being eliminated into the next collective bargaining negotiations... all seems like a recipe for disaster.

Prospects will be much harder to analyze, based on outdated scouting, team based hype, and less reliable Arizona Fall League style stats that won't hold nearly as much predictive value, with wide ranges of talent included in 1 league. It sucks, but it is the reality that the US is dealing with, and I don't see any better solutions.

I can't imagine there will be an Arizona Fall League this year. The health risk, the logistical nightmare, and the cost will all weigh heavily against, and most of the top prospects have been getting work at the alternate sites already anyway.

Btw, the structure of the minor leagues is not collectively bargained with the players' union. It's negotiated with minor league baseball's governing body.

[ThatRogue]

Do you think more players that normally would have played in the minor leagues will find their way to various international leagues, particularly in the Caribbean, Latin America, Japan and South Korea?

[Sour Masher]

Do you think more players that normally would have played in the minor leagues will find their way to various international leagues, particularly in the Caribbean, Latin America, Japan and South Korea?

That is a great point. Depending on the health of those leagues, that would make sense.

[revo]

Do you think more players that normally would have played in the minor leagues will find their way to various international leagues, particularly in the Caribbean, Latin America, Japan and South Korea?

I would guess more of the Quadruple-A players will, for sure.

[madducks]

Like rats abandoning a sinking ship..... Minor League Baseball president Pat O'Conner announced Tuesday that he will retire at the end of the year.

[revo]

Like rats abandoning a sinking ship..... Minor League Baseball president Pat O'Conner announced Tuesday that he will retire at the end of the year.

I think he realizes next year will be much more difficult for them than this year.