Keeper Help - Godwin vs. Carson

[Sam]

10 team league - 1/2 pt PPR, 6 pt QB TD. Start 2 WR/2 RB, 1 TE, 1 Flex. Everyone can keep one person, essentially as a "Round 0" pick. Not tied to where you drafted them previously or anything else.

I'm leaning towards either Chris Godwin or Chris Carson. My other maybes would be the likes of Kareem Hunt, James Conner, Adam Thielen, etc. The first two are clearly a head above though.

Some of the definite keepers: Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, CMC, Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry

Some of the maybes, looking at other teams likely choices: either Josh Jacobs or Austin Ekeler, either Russell Wilson or Kenyan Drake, Joe Mixon or Mike Evans, Aaron Jones or Miles Sanders

Top RB's likely available: Saquon, Kamara, Zeke, CEH, Nick Chubb and then whoever isn't kept as part of the maybes list above

Top WR's likely available: virtually all of them!

I think Godwin is the slightly better player but given the likely high amount of RBs taken, I'm tempted to keep Carson. Thoughts from the group?

[chancellor]

I'd keep Carson, given the keeper options you've listed. Like you, I really like Godwin, but if there's only one or two WRs kept, I'd roll the dice on getting him back.

[revo]

I'd keep Godwin, who I have rated significantly higher than Carson.

[Sam]

I'd keep Godwin, who I have rated significantly higher than Carson.

Interesting - how much higher? In a 1/2 pt ppr ADP, there's only a two spot difference. Matthew Berry has them one spot apart on his 1 pt PPR rankings. Just curious how you see them?

[the heat]

I'd keep Godwin. He should go about 15 picks ahead of Carson.

[chancellor]

Interesting - how much higher? In a 1/2 pt ppr ADP, there's only a two spot difference. Matthew Berry has them one spot apart on his 1 pt PPR rankings. Just curious how you see them?

Some interesting results trolling around - Sporting News has them only 3 spots apart. PFF has them 5 apart. USA Today....like forever apart. Carson must have killed the author's dog or something. I've not seen anyone rank him that badly.

Here's my POVs on pluses and minuses of each:

Carson plus - He's the lead back in an offense that's run first. Seattle made a concerted effort to improve their offensive line. Even with Seattle's O-Line last year, he still averaged 4.4 YPC. In your league, some of the leading RBs will be off the board as keepers.
Carson minus - Carlos Hyde isn't a bad RB for a #2, could cut into carries. He's an OK, not great receiver. Seattle has a lot of options near the end zone, including Russell Wilson.

Godwin plus - He's an absolute stud at WR in an offense that's traditionally been pass first. He's in the top five, IMO, among most talented WRs in the NFL right now, combining great routes, good hands, and a lot of physical talent.
Godwin minus - Brady's efficiency could well lead to less passing output, Gronk adds another important mouth to feed, and in your league, there's lots of WRs available in your league.

I don't think you do badly with keeping either one, but given your league, I'd still keep Carson.

[revo]

Interesting - how much higher? In a 1/2 pt ppr ADP, there's only a two spot difference. Matthew Berry has them one spot apart on his 1 pt PPR rankings. Just curious how you see them?

I have Godwin #21 (WR5) and Carson #34 (RB19).

[Sam]

Well, I ended up keeping Godwin and drafting Carson in the second round (after CEH in the 1st). So it worked out well! Ended up with Godwin, Allen Robinson, Robert Woods and Sterling Shepard for WRs and CEH, Carson, K. Hunt, Zack Moss and Darrel Williams (as CEH's back-up) for RBs.