*Official Sports Wagering Thread*

[revo]

Interesting stats for MNF:
- the Bears have only allowed 4 passing TDs all season
- 3 of those 4 went to TEs
- they have not allowed more than 1 passing TD in any single game this season
- Goff's u1.5 passing TDs is +120
- Tyler Higbee's and Gerald Everett's TD odds are both +375
- Higbee plays about 80% of the snaps compared to Everett's 45%

[Judge Jude]

is Mack playing? he is a yuge part of their D

[revo]

I don’t and the odds those parlays spit out are funny sometimes. Replacing one thing with another thing that has similar odds can often really change your odds in weird ways. Not sure if it’s based on the likely outcomes of one happening with another but it definitely is odd

So looking at a SGP tonight. If I go Anthony Miller u28.5, Henderson TD with Foles u239.5 (-110), I get +707. But if I change it to Foles o239.5, which is also -110, it jumps to +1081. I have no idea why -- unless, of course, we just discovered an inner working on their internal outlook of how it will go.

[frae]

So looking at a SGP tonight. If I go Anthony Miller u28.5, Henderson TD with Foles u239.5 (-110), I get +707. But if I change it to Foles o239.5, which is also -110, it jumps to +1081. I have no idea why -- unless, of course, we just discovered an inner working on their internal outlook of how it will go.

My reddit group pointed it out first and no one really seems to know why yet, but I do try to fiddle around with both sides of bets when I don't have a strong take to see what gets better odds.

[revo]

My reddit group pointed it out first and no one really seems to know why yet, but I do try to fiddle around with both sides of bets when I don't have a strong take to see what gets better odds.

So here's my thinking:
DraftKings seemingly changes their odds on the player props and not the lines, but FanDuel changes the actual line, while the odds always stay the same (I haven't figured out Fox yet, they appear to be a middleground of the two). For example, let's take Nick Foles tonight. His passing yards line is 249.5 on DK, 239.5 on FD and 240.5 on Fox. The outlier is obviously DK. The odds on DK on the under has dropped from their start line of -112 to -125, but on FD, it's still -110. So FD will readjust the line while DK readjusts the odds. It seems to be a difference of organizational philosophy. So it's clear that the line adjusted on FD and Fox but not on DK, and Foles' line of 249.5 is an arbitrage situation -- the other two sites think he'll be lower, but since DK usually doesn't readjust the line, they're "showing their hand." It seems to be a tell.

That said, the SGP on FD shows these "public" odds that are always -110 on either side of the bet. So no matter what you like -- Foles o239 or u239 -- it's -110. Buuuut......their internal odds are different. So if you go with the u239 line, they decrease the payout because they internally feel that's the way it's going to go.

What else could explain it, when a parlay payout should be a simple mathematical formula? It should be AxBxC = payout, but if B's odds are the exact same on ether side (Foles o & u odds are both -110), then what else could possibly change the payout formula?


I think as small bettors we have access to info that bettors 10 years ago could have only dreamed of having at their fingertips. This is one.

Seeing arbitrage situations across different sites, comparing prop lines on different sites, seeing odds changes on these props when you know what they start at, and now this. It all helps.

[revo]

MNF Wagers
$5 Everett TD - WON $18.75
$5 Henderson TD - LOST
$5 Montgomery TD - LOST
$5 Henderson 1st TD - LOST
$10 Foles u249.5 - LOST
$5 Robinson u72.5 - WON $9.55
$10 Robinson u71.5 - WON $17.50
$5 Miller u28.5 - WON $9.55
$10 SGP - Foles u239.5, Miller u28.5, Montgomery TD - LOST
$10 First Half u23.5 - WON $16.90
$5 Rams u26.5 - WON $9.55
$10 SGP - 1st Half u23.5 + Robinson u66.5 - LOST

Total wagered: $85.00
Total Payout: $81.80
Total +/-: ($3.20)



Note: the line on ARobinson has been shrinking all day. I got in at 72.5, now it's 66.5.

[Judge Jude]

"So FD will readjust the line while DK readjusts the odds. It seems to be a difference of organizational philosophy."

well, iirc only PointsBet - based in Australia, easily per capita the biggest gambling country on Earth - sets its own lines.

the others partner with companies that power it for them. but yes that there are two different philosophies at work.

[Judge Jude]

Jeremy Stout
@putt_4_dough
Playing around with @DKSportsbook
app and it appears they just come up w/ random prices for two-leg parlays (side/total) regardless of individual price. Some have been +188 others as much as +295 all w/ prices of -110 each leg, this is quite disturbing @capjack2000
5:34 PM · Oct 26, 2020

.................

(a professional gambler replied that "They factor in correlation")

[frae]

ok what all I have tonight...

Henderson 1st TD DK moneyback if he scores at all $10
Higbee $2 +2000 1st TD

$5 on SGP of Kupp over 60.5, Robinson TD anytime, Goff under 241.5 +1254

$5 on SGP Foles under 239.5 Robinson over 69.5 and Henderson under 58.5 +907

then my I messed up yesterday bet where I still have $50 on the 1st quarter total to be over 9.5 at +110 if the someone scores early I might hedge it because I don't trust these offenses.

[revo]

Higbee a surprise inactive

[frae]

Higbee a surprise inactive

That should void his bets usually.

[revo]

That should void his bets usually.

Yeah it will.

[Judge Jude]

got Foles at under 244.5 on DK

didn't find a "Foles first half under" or I'd double up.

can't see him going over without Garb-Bage time - in which case he either did nothing in the first half, or his team is well ahead and he's not throwing.

the Rams also punish QBs, so while I would never root for an injury.......

UPDATE: Foles quiet in 1Q, but all it takes is one 37-yard completion and he has 72 yards on 7 for 9 - so ahead of the 61-yard pace and under I'd prefer.

1Q: 7-9, 72 yards
2Q: 5-6, 49 yards including a questionable 15-yard "catch"
TOTAL 121 yards

LAR get ball to start 3Q later, so give me a small edge - and thankfully it's a manageable 10-3 LAR lead for CHI.

but it's tough to ever be comfortable with a QB and UNDER as long as he is playing...

and there's the THIRD Rams punt downed inside the 10. that can easily kill you in this spot - the QB has an endless field. damn

3Q: 5 for 7, 36 yards
TOTAL 157 yards

ok, now I have 87 yards to play with but it's a 24-3 blowout and Rams ball.

Foles UNDER was the right bet - but will it cash?

NARRATOR: It did not cash.

Do QBs get credit for a completion on a PI call?

if so, that's what killed me

[frae]

Well that FG took about 45 seconds too long to happen.

[revo]

- gah, lost the Foles under & the ARob under in the parlay on a bomb that he somehow caught. So close.
- amazingly won the Rams total under on a blocked FG
- had Higbee but that bet was voided and switched to Everett TD