*Official Sports Wagering Thread*

[revo]

Anyone here wager on baseball? With sports gambling legal in some states with many others to follow, it may be a good idea to discuss wagers and strategies here.

I've had good success so far this season using BvP matchup info from www.dailybaseballdata.com. I tend to target teams who have had great success vs. the opposing team's starter; or, when both teams have had success (or a lack of success), betting the O/U. I've also had recent success using batter's historic HRs vs. the SP, hitting at about a 50% clip so far, but this is more like playing the hard ways in craps.

I re-started my sports wagering when games returned, depositing $70 between FanDuel & DraftKings (I also placed $150 on futures but won't see a return there for awhile), and just two weeks later, I'm up to $480.

A few days ago I hit with Conforto, Cruz & Tatis hitting HRs. I hit two days ago with TB vs BOS, HOU vs SF and KC vs CIN. I won last night with the over in the CIN/PIT game and won with Darvish & the Cubs vs the Brewers.

I'll post tonight's juicy matchups and wagers as I research, but anyone else please chime in!

[revo]

Friday, August 14th

Good pitching matchups
- Jays vs Trevor Richards -- .345/.387/.621 (29 ABs)
- Phillies vs DeGrom - .207/.279/.305 (164 ABs)
- Bucs vs Sonny Gray -- .203/.239/.297 (64 ABs)
- Tigers vs Civale -- .182/.224/.341 (44 ABs) + Indians vs. Nova -- .337/.378/.510 (104 ABs)
- Royals vs Odorizzi -- .337/.406/.628 (86 ABs)
- Brewers vs Chatwood -- .203/.289/.257 (74 ABs)
- Astros vs Kikuchi -- .300/.374/.487 (80 ABs) + Mariners vs. Framber Valdez -- .120/.371/.160 (25 ABs)
- D'Backs vs Lamet -- .177/.250/.403 (62 ABs)

Good batting matchups
- Soler is 3-6 with 2 HRs vs Odorizzi
- Merrifield is 8-17 with 3 HRs vs Odorizzi
- Tatis is 4-8 with 3 HRs vs M.Kelly
- Olson is 2-3 with 2 HRs vs Cueto

The teams that stand out are the Reds, Indians and the Astros, but the Royals also historically club Odorizzi badly and seeing two of their studs with big stats against him is also juicy.

Today's Wagers
$10 ML on CIN -195
$10 ML on SDP -127
$10 -1.5 on HOU +100
$10 ML on CLE -180
$3 on Soler HR +280

[Sam]

I've been going with the "bet the series" method. I'm essentially betting that a team won't get swept. I'll bet the first game and if that loses, I'll bet double on the second game, etc so even if a team wins in game 3 or 4 I'll still make a profit from the series as a whole. It can be a little stressful and you can end up making some big wagers on series finales but I made over $1K doing it in the second half last year. Still trying to get to know the teams a little better this year. I bet on the Cubs yesterday, anticipating they wouldn't be swept at home by the Brewers and that won. I'll be out of town this weekend without cell service or I would've also bet on NYY (4 games at home vs. Red Sox) and Minn (4 games at home vs. KC). Edit to add - maybe not the NYY as they're currently at -315 today. I try to limit it to games that are under -250(ish) as if you lose that first game or two, you end up having to make really really big bets which isn't very smart!

Looking to diversify my bets though so I'll be interested to follow along with what you're doing Revo!

[cleo]

Nice idea for a thread..... what website(s) do you use for your bets?

I saw this posted yesterday.

2020-08-14_11-57-25.jpg

[Judge Jude]

I have a couple of bucks in DraftKings Sportsbook on Reds to go at least 32-28.

so far 8-11, so I need 24-17.

would be a shame if their last game got rained out - bet voided if Reds don't play the full 60 games.



betting now legal in about 15 or 16 states, mostly Northeast and Midwest.

in states with competitive markets like NJ, rival companies try to lock you as a steady customer with silly offerings. last week I just had to bet $1 on the DEN-LAL game to be guaranteed a free bet that grew as the number of "buy-ins" grew by some percentage.

I won $2 on DEN +5 (at the buzzer!) and got a $74 free bet.

I make money on my golf picks, so bet what you know.

I saw payouts of $2,000+ if you lucked into the longshot winner, but ultimately I played it safe with favorite Webb Simpson top 20 (he's T-10th after 2 rounds on a tight board) for $59.

back to MLB: just got an offer on "Will Cody Bellinger get a hit tonight?"

Dodgers play the Angels with Patrick Sandoval starting.

normally if you bet "yes" then for $10 you win just $4.60 - which, the guy is hitting .165.

put with the promo, that $10 bet wins you $30.

gotta take it?

[heyelander]

DeGrom is a scratch.

[GwynnInTheHall]

I looked everywhere on that site and didn't see Avatar bet as an option.......

[revo]

Nice idea for a thread..... what website(s) do you use for your bets?

I saw this posted yesterday.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]1263[/ATTACH]

DraftKings and FanDuel

[revo]

I have a couple of bucks in DraftKings Sportsbook on Reds to go at least 32-28.

so far 8-11, so I need 24-17.

would be a shame if their last game got rained out - bet voided if Reds don't play the full 60 games.



betting now legal in about 15 or 16 states, mostly Northeast and Midwest.

in states with competitive markets like NJ, rival companies try to lock you as a steady customer with silly offerings. last week I just had to bet $1 on the DEN-LAL game to be guaranteed a free bet that grew as the number of "buy-ins" grew by some percentage.

I won $2 on DEN +5 (at the buzzer!) and got a $74 free bet.

I make money on my golf picks, so bet what you know.

I saw payouts of $2,000+ if you lucked into the longshot winner, but ultimately I played it safe with favorite Webb Simpson top 20 (he's straddling the fence at the moment in Round 2) for $59.

back to MLB: just got an offer on "Will Cody Bellinger get a hit tonight?"

Dodgers play the Angels with Patrick Sandoval starting.

normally if you bet "yes" then for $10 you win just $4.60 - which, the guy is hitting .165.

put with the promo, that $10 bet wins you $30.

gotta take it?

Yep, I took that promo, got the $74 free credit, and bet it on the Rays -1.5 vs BOS and won $72 in real cash.

In fact, their "return to sports" offering had the Lakers +500 with 1 pt added to the spread for every 1,000 customers who bet it, and I put $20 on the Lakers +52 at +500, which was an easy $100. My initial $20 deposit has now grown to a $300 bankroll on DKs. FD ran something similar I think, and my initial $50 deposit from 2 weeks ago is now $200.

The reason why they can do these things is because, well, unlike a casino, they're still holding my money, imaginary or not!

[Judge Jude]

you doing Bellinger?

[revo]

you doing Bellinger?

No.

Chatwood scratched.

[Judge Jude]

wait, Patrick Sandoval vs Dodgers, and Bellinger has 2 singles in 22 AB vs LHP this season.

that original line was preposterous. I guess I gotta make sure CB starts, since 3 to 1 odds on getting a hit is decent

UPDATE: talked to a pro, he said the original line is not THAT bad. CB batting 5th, he says he has a 66 pct chance of getting a hit so the promo is worth a play. so what the heck!

he also told me that you're off the hook if your guy doesn't start.

as far as "how much can you make exploiting these promos across more than a dozen 'books in a year?"

turns out -with a ton of discipline and a few friends who sign up as fresh meat - low 5 figures.

but that's with lots of time and avoiding getting frisky with the profits, no easy feat there.

#betwithyourheadnotoverit

[revo]

wait, Patrick Sandoval vs Dodgers, and Bellinger has 2 singles in 22 AB vs LHP this season.

that original line was preposterous. I guess I gotta make sure CB starts, since 3 to 1 odds on getting a hit is decent

UPDATE: talked to a pro, he said the original line is not THAT bad. CB batting 5th, he says he has a 66 pct chance of getting a hit so the promo is worth a play. so what the heck!

he also told me that you're off the hook if your guy doesn't start.

as far as "how much can you make exploiting these promos across more than a dozen 'books in a year?"

turns out -with a ton of discipline and a few friends who sign up as fresh meat - low 5 figures.

but that's with lots of time and avoiding getting frisky with the profits, no easy feat there.

#betwithyourheadnotoverit

What was the promo on Bellinger? I missed it. We should post them here when they pop up.

[Judge Jude]

on DK

"just got an offer on "Will Cody Bellinger get a hit tonight?"

Dodgers play the Angels with Patrick Sandoval starting.

normally if you bet "yes" then for $10 you win just $4.60 - which, the guy is hitting .165.

put with the promo, that $10 bet wins you $30."

[he's 0 for 2 so far, bats 3rd in the 6th and apparently again against the lefty starter....]

[Pauly]

bellinger!!!