*Official Sports Wagering Thread*

[Gregg]

I had A&M -10 also with the 100% boost. Made up for other garbage NCAA picks, lol.

Week 17 NFL
$15 Round Robin - Chubb, Taylor, Dobbins TDs - WON ALL 3 $44.09
$5 Jefferson o79.5 - WON $9.05
$5 Watson o287.5 - WON $9.50
$10 Dobbins TD - WON $22.60
$3 SGP Dobbins o68.5 + TD - WON $9.01
$10 DAdams TD (boosted to +300) - WON $40.00
$10 Agholor o52.5 - WON $19.60
$5 Swift o52.5 - WON $8.50
$10 Henry o125.5 - WON $19.60
$5 Thielen TD - LOST
$3 Thielen TD + Jefferson over - LOST
$10 Chubb o72.5 - WON $20.80
$10 Taylor o83.5 - WON $18.16
$10 AJ Brown o61.5 - WON $17.10
$5 Kittle 52.5 - WON $9.55
$5 Chubb TD - WON $8.45
$5 SGP Chubb TD + Chubb o72.5 - WON $12.69
$10 Dobbins o68.5 - WON $19.43
$5 Cousins o270.5 - WON $9.00
$10 Gallman o50.5 - WON $18.70
$10 Taysom Hill TD - WON $26.20

Total Wagered: $161.00
Total Payout: $313.93
Total +/-: $152.93

21-2 on prop bets in the afternoon games!!!

I only lost the Thielen TD, which also cost me a small SGP! Dayum!


SNF
$5 McLaurin o45.5 - LOST
$10 WAS -6.5 - LOST
$5 Hurts o56.5 rush - LOST
$5 Hurts TD - WON $15.00
$5 McKissic o27.5 rec - WON $9.55
$10 McLaurin o3.5 rec - WON $15.68
$5 SGP: Gibson TD + McKissic o27.5 rec - lost
$5 SGP: Gibson TD, McKissic o29.5 rec, Hurts o56.5 rush, Hurts TD - LOST
$10 Gibson o66.5 rush+rec - WON $18.93
$5 Gibson TD - LOST
$10 WAS to win NFC East - WON $33.00

Total Wagered: $75.00
Total Payout: $92.16
Total +/-: $17.16


Final tally of 2020
Starting seed money: $300.00
Current Bankroll: $1,552.00
Total +/-: $1,252.00
Total return: 417%

Congrats on the day and on the season!!

Well done.

[revo]

Gov Cuomo to "fully embrace" sports betting in NYS.

https://www.actionnetwork.com/legal-online-sports-betting/new-york-online-sports-betting-gov-andrew-cuomo-fully-on-board-will-address-next-week

[Judge Jude]

so far all reports credit the NY Daily News, which references a statement not yet on Cuomo's website. should be clarified/confirmed in next two hours. NY would be largest state to offer mobile sports betting.

[revo]

so far all reports credit the NY Daily News, which references a statement not yet on Cuomo's website. should be clarified/confirmed in next two hours. NY would be largest state to offer mobile sports betting.

Why all states aren't allowing it now is beyond me. The revenues they generate can help these states tremendously.

[Judge Jude]

well, NY hopes for $100 million in sports betting taxes annually - vs. an annual budget of $160 BILLION.

1 pct of that would be $1.6 billion. 1/10th of 1 pct, $160 million - and this would be not even that.

as Cuomo has said, "not even a rounding error."

it's more about consumer protection and weakening organized crime syndicates.

[revo]

well, NY hopes for $100 million in sports betting taxes annually - vs. an annual budget of $160 BILLION.

1 pct of that would be $1.6 billion. 1/10th of 1 pct, $160 million.

as Cuomo has said, "not even a rounding error."

it's more about consumer protection and weakening organized crime syndicates.

OK, that's fair. Still, to paraphrase Geddy Lee, "$100 million bucks is $100 million bucks."

[Judge Jude]

they also can divert part of the revenue to compulsive gambling assistance programs, which is needed with or without legal options.

also mobile sports betting is the "gateway drug" to online casino gaming, which is a bigger source of revenue (NJ gets more than twice as many tax dollars from that sector, which it legalized way back in 2013) though still in the "rounding error" category.

[Judge Jude]

update: Cuomo says he will do sports betting, but via lottery.

claims it will raise $500M not $50M (but $100M was a more accurate estimate).

pretty much standard that states where lottery runs the show sucks and sucks hard for bettors.

[Judge Jude]

update on NYS and mobile sports betting

Cuomo may be angling for something like the NH model, where the lottery oversees the sports betting but wound up farming it out to DK.

this betting is not legal elsewhere in New England, so it's better than nothing and it's not as bad as, say, DC or Oregon for example where the lottery runs it poorly.

but for NYC-area bettors, if it goes this route then NJ and/or offshore 'books will continue to keep most of their business.

the amount of lobbying coming will be epic - not only because claiming a monopoly in NYS would be worth a king's ransom, but because it could set a template for other states to follow. again, would suck for bettors but could be a sweet deal for non-bettors who see their state rake in extra tax dollars if done right.

all of the massive gaming brands - and especially the publicly-traded ones that soared on the AM Cuomo reports but will sink tomorrow off the later news - will be doing not-even-socially-distancing sweet-talking with every pol who ever got a campaign contribution.

big picture here is billions are at stake, and in Albany there are plenty of legislators who will be interested in wetting their beaks. stay tuned.

[revo]

Any insight on which company may win out?

[Judge Jude]

preliminarily, it looks as if it would come down to DK, FD, Rush Street Gaming, and Bet365.

but MGM paid $850M for Yonkers Raceway and racino in 2019 to have a shot at both mobile sports betting and also getting a full-fledged casino license - and the main backer of sports betting in the Assembly happens to be from Yonkers.

but this tentative plan would leave out BarStool/Penn National, for instance - which makes no sense for the state. let 'em all bid, in some fashion or another.

[revo]

Wild Card Weekend

Saturday
$10 Parlay - Moss u1.5 rec, Carson u3.5 rec (50% Boost) - LOST
$10 Parlay - Moss u1.5 rec, Carson u3.5 rec - LOST
$5 Parlay - Moss u1.5 rec, Carson u3.5 rec, McKissic u21.5 rush - LOST
$15 Carson u3.5 rec - WON $23.85
$10 Diggs o90.5 - WON $18.50
$10 Diggs TD (50% boost) - WON $27.00
$10 Diggs TD (+300) - WON $40.00
$10 IND-BUF o51.5 - LOST by half a point
$20 Barber u9.5 - WON $38.00
$20 McKissic u21.5 rush - WON $34.40
$10 Moss u1.5 rec - LOST
$10 parlay Barber u9.5, McKissic u18.5 rush - WON $31.71
$15 Woods o50.5 - LOST
$15 Kupp o50.5 - WON $26.70
$5 Fournette TD live - WON $24.25
$20 Bucs -6.5 - WON $31.43
$10 Fox promo - all WC QBs 1+ TD pass - LOST

Total Wagered: $205.00
Total Payout: $295.84
Total +/-: $90.84

Sunday
$15 LJax o68.5 rush - WON $24.75
$10 LJax o199.5 - LOST
$10 LJax o1.5 pass TD - LOST
$10 Dobbins o61.5 - LOST
$10 Dobbins TD - WON $20.00
$10 Dobbins u1.5 rec - WON $16.90
$10 Tannehill o237.5 - LOST
$10 Andrews o56.5 - LOST
$3 SGP: Andrews + Jonnu TD - LOST
$5 Jonnu TD - LOST
$5 Andrews TD - LOST
$5 CDavis o59.5 - LOST
$5 AJBrown o67.5 - WON $8.85
$10 Thomas o69.5 - WON $17.00
$5 Thomas o5.5rec - LOST
$5 Robinson TD - LOST
$15 Fox promo - Kamara + Henry rush TD - LOST
$20 NO+PIT win - LOST
$10 PIT 1st to score (DK boost) - LOST
$5 Chubb TD - WON $9.50
$5 DJohnson o65.5 - WON $8.85
$5 Claypool o50.5 - WON $9.00

ARB 1
$19.39 TEN ML - LOST
$25 BAL ML - WON $50.00

ARB 2
$50 PIT/CLE u41.5 - LOST
$156.67 PIT/CLE o41.5 - WON $235.01

Total Wagered: $439.06
Total Payout: $399.86
Total +/-: ($39.20)

[revo]

Signed up for MGM Bets. Deposited $500, got a $500 match in site credit. I understand their props are somewhat inefficient, so it's a good book to arb against.

[Judge Jude]

Colts just jumped to +7 on DK if that seems appealing (-113)

I signed up recently w BetMGM as well. they keep bombarding me w free $5 or $10 bets with maybe 72 hours to do it. trying to force newbies into checking in and betting early and often. haven't seen that elsewhere.

also a heavier promo push on parlays.

saw a note that only game out of 22 in the past two postseasons had a "win but didn't cover" result (PHI-NO 2 years ago). otherwise if you had the favorite, if they won then they covered as well.

[Judge Jude]

FanDuel in NJ today offering 'Bama at -110 to win, down from -340.

basically this means that instead of needing the Tide to win by at least 8 or 9 points, you only need them to win at all, for the same price.

max is $50, but it's not THAT much of a lock.

still worth a taste, for most.