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*Official Sports Wagering Thread*

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  • #16
    on DK

    " just got an offer on "Will Cody Bellinger get a hit tonight?"

    Dodgers play the Angels with Patrick Sandoval starting.

    normally if you bet "yes" then for $10 you win just $4.60 - which, the guy is hitting .165.

    put with the promo, that $10 bet wins you $30."

    [he's 0 for 2 so far....]

    UPDATE: BELLINGER HOMERS!
    finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
    own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
    won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

    SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
    RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
    C Stallings 2, Casali 1
    1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
    OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1

    Comment


    • #17
      Just FYI, FD has “7th Inning Insurance” where if your team is up in the 7th but then lose the game, you get your bet refunded as a site credit. You need to opt-in for it though (just once for the entire season).

      Comment


      • #18
        Saturday, August 15th

        Yesterday's Wager Results
        $10 ML on CIN -195 - WON $15.20
        $10 ML on SDP -127 - LOST
        $10 -1.5 on HOU +100 - WON $20.00
        $10 ML on CLE -180 - WON $15.56
        $3 on Soler HR +280 - VOID (Rainout)

        Aug 14 Wagered: $40.00
        Aug 14 Won: $50.76
        Aug 14 P/L: +$10.76

        EVERY pitching matchup worked out, but the Padres couldn't hit Merril Kelly and wasted a beaut from Lamet.

        Today's good pitching matchups
        - Royals vs Odorizzi (.346/.411/.654, 90 PAs) - 7 innings
        - Cubs vs Houser (.326/.380/.630, 50 PAs)
        - Phils vs Matz (.296/.383/.556, 154 PAs) + Mets vs Nola (.219/.317/.312, 183 PAs)
        - Tigers vs Bieber (.213/.238/.230, 63 PAs) + Indians have beaten Tigers 18 straight + Indians vs Turnbull (.378/.420/.514 in 81 PAs)
        - Yanks vs Eovaldi (.192/.232/.244, 82 PAs)
        - A's vs Gausman (.118/.114/.206, 35 PAs)
        - Rockies vs Gibson (.483/.516/.655, 31 PAs) + Rangers vs Marquez (.167/.265/.333, 49 PAs)


        Today's good batting matchups
        - Merrifield vs Odorizzi (8-17, 3 HRs) - 7 innings
        - Soler vs Odorizzi (3-6, 2 HRs) - 7 innings
        - Cruz vs Duffy (8-23, 4 HRs)
        - Soto vs Wojciechowski (3-7, 1714 OPS in 7 PAs)
        - Martinez vs Paxton (8-19, 2 HRs, 1424 OPS in 21 PAs)


        Today's Wagers
        $10 -1.5 on Phillies +116 (DK)
        $25 -1.5 on Indians -108 (FD)
        $5 ML on Red Sox +150 (DK)
        Late bet: $5 on Soto HR +330 (FD)

        Comment


        • #19
          Sunday, August 16th

          Yesterday's Wager Results
          $10 -1.5 on Phillies +116 (DK) - WON $21.60
          $25 -1.5 on Indians -108 (FD) - WON $48.15
          $5 ML on Red Sox +150 (DK) - LOST
          Late bet: $5 on Soto HR +330 (FD) - WON $21.50

          Soto go BOOM! Nola & the Phils were a slam dunk, and I was shocked at the relatively solid odds on the Indians given their dominance of DET with likely Cy Young winner Bieber on the bump.

          Day Total
          Aug 15 Wagered: $45.00
          Aug 15 Won: $91.25
          Aug 15 P/L: +$46.25

          Season Total
          "Sports Resumed" Total Deposit: $70.00
          Current Bankroll: $540.05
          P/L: +$470.05
          ROI: 671%


          Today's juicy pitching matchups
          - Plutko vs DET - .227/.231/.427 (78 PAs) + Fulmer vs CLE - .368/.436/.647 (80 PAs)
          - Porcello vs PHI - .188/.264/.402 (129 PAs)
          - Lester vs MIL - .319/.382/.454 (131 PAs)
          - Shoemaker vs TB - .122/.232/.163 (56 PAs)
          - Gray vs TEX - .326/.408/.442 (49 PAs)
          - Fiers vs SF - .341/.388/.636 (49 PAs)
          - GRichards vs ARZ - .194/.324/.323 (74 PAs)
          - Happ vs BOS - .211/.269/.342 (175 PAs)


          Today's juicy batting matchups
          - CSeager vs Teheran - 3-11 with 3 HRs
          - Canha vs LWebb - 2-2 with 2 HRs
          - Longoria vs Fiers - 5-11 with 3 HRs (1955 OPS)
          - Dietrich vs JGray - 7-17 with 1 HR
          - THernandez vs Chirinos - 5-8 with 1 HR
          - JRamirez vs Fulmer - 4-13 with 2 HRs

          Notes
          - The Shoe absolutely dominates TB
          - Plutko does well vs DET while the Indians have bombed Fulmer. The Tribe has won 19 straight vs DET, which is insane.
          - Porcello has good numbers vs PHI, but it's hard to trust him. Same with Happ vs BOS.
          - Longoria and the Giants own Fiers, but Longoria is an old fart.
          - Seager may be a good "$1 Yo" bet for today
          - In 3 games at Buffalo, the run totals have been 9, 25 & 16 (average of 16.6/gm). The O/U is 8. (7 Inning game)

          Today's Wagers
          $20 - O/8 Runs in the TOR-TB game -120 (FD)
          $10 ML on Blue Jays +114 (FD)
          $2 on CSeager HR +550 (FD)

          Comment


          • #20
            Monday, August 17th

            Yesterday's Wager Results
            $20 - O/8 Runs in the TOR-TB game -120 (FD) - WON $36.67
            $10 ML on Blue Jays +114 (FD) - LOST
            $2 on CSeager HR +550 (FD) - WON $13

            Seager go BOOM! The Shoe pitched well enough, then the bullpen came in and blew the game, and they lost in extras.

            Day Total
            Aug 16 wagered: $32.00
            Aug 16 won: $49.67
            Aug 16 P/L: +$17.67

            Season Total
            "Sports Resumed" Total Deposit: $70.00
            Current Bankroll: $547.72
            P/L: +$477.72
            ROI: 682%


            Today's juicy pitching matchups
            - Perez vs NYY .306/.342/.500 (38 PAs) + Montgomery vs BOS, .304/.347/.522 (49 PAs)
            - Yamamoto vs NYM, .172/.294/.414 (34 PAs)
            - Boyd vs CWS, .306/.343/.541 (207 PAs)


            Today's juicy batting matchups
            - Franco vs Wisler, 6-12 with 2 HRs
            - Eloy vs Boyd, 4-11 with 3 HRs
            - Abreu vs Boyd, 13-33 with 2 HRs


            Notes
            - not much going on today. The ChiSox do well vs Boyd in a very large sample -- and who's also been an unmitigated disaster this season -- and maybe the NYY/BOS game will be a shootout. But nothing else really stands out.


            Today's Wagers
            $10 on O/9.5 in NYY-BOS game -117
            $5 on EJimenez HR +335
            $5 on Abreu HR +351

            Comment


            • #21
              revo - I'm loving this thread. Great job, and hope you can keep it up!
              I'm just here for the baseball.

              Comment


              • #22
                Yeah I agree, I've thought about making some small bets but hesitated. I typically use the same type strategies being pointed out here. Good to see it working. And I'm sure you are doing better than I would. Really like this thread thanks revo

                Comment


                • #23
                  my bankroll has gone from $53.68 to $184.32 in 10 days, mostly on 3 bets:

                  - Morikawa after 54 holes to rally to win the PGA, $3 paid $33

                  - that Bellinger bet, $10 to win $30 that he gets a hit (homered!)

                  - that $74 "free bet" of chalk "Webb Simpson top 20" yesterday paid about $52 (he actually claimed a piece of top 5)

                  just keep in mind that in the long run, these guys aren't running charities



                  I can say that any professional bettor will tell you that MLB is a little easier to beat, with homework, than overfished streams like NFL or power conference NCAA hoops
                  finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
                  own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
                  won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

                  SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
                  RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
                  C Stallings 2, Casali 1
                  1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
                  OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by Judge Jude View Post
                    my bankroll has gone from $53.68 to $184.32 in 10 days, mostly on 3 bets:

                    - Morikawa after 54 holes to rally to win the PGA, $3 paid $33

                    - that Bellinger bet, $10 to win $30 that he gets a hit (homered!)

                    - that $74 "free bet" of chalk "Webb Simpson top 20" yesterday paid about $52 (he actually claimed a piece of top 5)

                    just keep in mind that in the long run, these guys aren't running charities



                    I can say that any professional bettor will tell you that MLB is a little easier to beat, with homework, than overfished streams like NFL or power conference NCAA hoops
                    Oh, I agree 100%. They gave away "free money" with the Lakers promos because, ultimately, they know you will either 1) give everything back, or 2) keep the money on site and thus, still in their pockets. I wonder how many actually cash out their winnings, probably a small amount.

                    The NFL seems more like "hunch plays" while MLB is purely based on historic one-on-one data. What I don't know, of course, is how much data is necessary when using past histories. Long histories actually seem less relevant than short histories because of the change in skills.

                    Also, I'm finding out it's not great to evenly spread the bets. Makes more sense to rank multiple games you like, then bet more on the top games and less on the bottom games. I won 3 of 4 the other day but spread the wealth and only barely broke even thanks to the odds/vig.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by revo View Post
                      What I don't know, of course, is how much data is necessary when using past histories. Long histories actually seem less relevant than short histories because of the change in skills
                      Balance that with SSS anomalies though which is the challenge.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Tuesday, August 18th

                        Yesterday's Wager Results
                        $10 on O/9.5 in NYY-BOS game -117 - LOST
                        $5 on EJimenez HR +335 - LOST
                        $5 on Abreu HR +351 - LOST

                        6-3 in the BOS/NYY game...lost by half a run! The White Sox did beat up on the hapless Matthew Boyd, but Abreu and Eloy did not contribute.

                        Day Total
                        Aug 16 wagered: $20.00
                        Aug 16 won: $0.00
                        Aug 16 P/L: -$20.00

                        Season Total
                        "Sports Resumed" Total Deposit: $70.00
                        Current Bankroll: $527.72
                        P/L: +$457.72
                        ROI: 654%


                        Today's juicy pitching matchups
                        Cahill vs LAA, .163/.241/.163 in 54 PAs
                        Tanaka vs TB, .227/.261/.387 in 157 PAs
                        LeBlanc vs TOR, .406/.441/.906 in 34 PAs (1347 OPS)
                        Keller vs CIN, .118/.225/.147 in 40 PAs
                        Darvish vs STL, .192/.247/.295 in 85 PAs


                        Today's juicy batting matchups
                        Story vs Grienke 14-47 with 5 HRs
                        GSanchez vs Snell, 5-19 with 4 HRs
                        Grichuk vs LeBlanc, 3-5 with 1 HR (2514 OPS)

                        Notes
                        The Jays batter LeBlanc, but Pearson has been erratic.
                        Story has a lot of dingers vs Grienke, but a lowish BA. Might be better to take a couple of the Jays.

                        Today's Wagers
                        $20 on TOR -1.5 vs BAL (+108)

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Too busy today to study the wagers. Yesterday I lost again by 0.5 runs (should've bet the ML), but two of the three batters I posted hit HRs -- but I didn't bet on them, lol.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Originally posted by revo View Post
                            Too busy today to study the wagers. Yesterday I lost again by 0.5 runs (should've bet the ML), but two of the three batters I posted hit HRs -- but I didn't bet on them, lol.
                            You always win the ones you don't take!

                            I took the Twins last night (-150, bet $37.50 to win $25) vs. the Brewers. Rogers blew a 3 run lead in the ninth to lead to stressful extra innings. Thankfully they pulled it out.

                            I'm interested in the Yankees (-176) vs. Rays and A's (-155) vs. Diamondbacks tonight although I haven't pulled the trigger on either yet.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Thursday, August 20th

                              Yesterday's Wager Results
                              $20 on TOR -1.5 vs BAL (+108) - LOST

                              2nd straight game I lost by 0.5 runs. Bullpen blew the game. Oh well.

                              Day Total
                              Aug 18 wagered: $20.00
                              Aug 18 won: $0.00
                              Aug 18 P/L: -$20.00

                              Season Total
                              "Sports Resumed" Total Deposit: $70.00
                              Current Bankroll: $507.72
                              P/L: +$437.72
                              ROI: 625%


                              Today's juicy pitching matchups
                              Astros vs Marquez, .343/.378/.657, 38 PAs
                              Lugo vs Marlins, .158/.220/.158, 41 PAs
                              Wojciechowski vs Red Sox, .143/.200/.262, 45 PAs
                              Reds vs Wainwright, .303/.399/.561, 153 PAs
                              D'Backs vs Manaea, .344/.389/.562, 36 PAs
                              Angels vs Gausman, .329/.373/.562, 75 PAs


                              Today's juicy batting matchups
                              Gurriel vs Marquez (in COL) 4-7 with 2 HRs, 2482 OPS
                              RNunez vs Eovaldi, 6-9 with 2 HRs, 2144 OPS
                              Trout vs Gausman, 7-17 with 3 HRs


                              Notes
                              I'm a little hesitant on Lugo because he may not go far into the game, but that historic line is nice, so I'll take the chance.


                              Today's Wagers
                              $5 on Gurriel HR +500
                              $10 on Trout HR +320/+400 (bet on both FD & DK)
                              $10 on BAL ML vs BOS, +129
                              $10 on NYM ML vs MIA, -190

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by Sam View Post
                                You always win the ones you don't take!

                                I took the Twins last night (-150, bet $37.50 to win $25) vs. the Brewers. Rogers blew a 3 run lead in the ninth to lead to stressful extra innings. Thankfully they pulled it out.

                                I'm interested in the Yankees (-176) vs. Rays and A's (-155) vs. Diamondbacks tonight although I haven't pulled the trigger on either yet.
                                Ended up not pulling the trigger on either the Yanks or A's last night - would've been basically a wash.

                                Am tailing Revo on the Orioles today. I put $15 at +130 on the Baltimore ML.

                                Comment

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