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*** VD 15 Commentary Thread ***

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  • Originally posted by revo View Post
    Ryota Igarashi was not even on my spreadsheet, and I've never even heard of the guy!

    Because of that, I changed my projections for Feral, and now it's my duty to take him down!



    OK, it's not, but they worked out in his favor.

    And interestingly enough, my backup plan for Jackie is now about 1 pt better than if I had taken Jackie!
    U owe me one or two !
    ---------------------------------------------
    Champagne for breakfast and a Sherman in my hand !
    ---------------------------------------------
    The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.
    George Orwell, 1984

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    • Originally posted by revo View Post
      Ryota Igarashi was not even on my spreadsheet, and I've never even heard of the guy!

      Because of that, I changed my projections for Feral, and now it's my duty to take him down!



      OK, it's not, but they worked out in his favor.

      And interestingly enough, my backup plan for Jackie is now about 1 pt better than if I had taken Jackie!
      That was one of the ones I got right. Seemed obvious. Of course, before I took HoJo, he was on my radar, too.

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      • Feral, can you post Igarwhatever's stats please
        More American children die by gunfire in a year than on-duty police officers and active duty military.

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        • Originally posted by Bene Futuis View Post
          Feral, can you post Igarwhatever's stats please
          Oh, never mind, I just can't spell. Carry on!
          More American children die by gunfire in a year than on-duty police officers and active duty military.

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          • Control-F "garwhatever"

            No results
            More American children die by gunfire in a year than on-duty police officers and active duty military.

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            • Originally posted by Bene Futuis View Post
              Feral, can you post Igarwhatever's stats please
              Tryimg to shame me for drafting someone much worse than Innis ? Look for yourself, Asshole
              ---------------------------------------------
              Champagne for breakfast and a Sherman in my hand !
              ---------------------------------------------
              The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.
              George Orwell, 1984

              Comment


              • Originally posted by The Feral Slasher View Post
                Tryimg to shame me for drafting someone much worse than Innis ? Look for yourself, Asshole
                I was going to say, that's Mr. Asshole to you. But since you capitalized it, you already know.
                More American children die by gunfire in a year than on-duty police officers and active duty military.

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                • It's true, though. He is much worse than pretty much anyone, even Innis. Igarovaravitch is the 4th worst pitcher on the spreadsheet, according to my increasingly obviously shoddy rankings.
                  More American children die by gunfire in a year than on-duty police officers and active duty military.

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                  • So in yo face, with your shitty....*checks standings*.....err.....uh.....stuff and things.
                    More American children die by gunfire in a year than on-duty police officers and active duty military.

                    Comment


                    • Hmm, I wonder if Joe Niekro would have been a good fit for my team. Guess we'll never know.
                      More American children die by gunfire in a year than on-duty police officers and active duty military.

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                      • Originally posted by Bene Futuis View Post
                        It's true, though. He is much worse than pretty much anyone, even Innis. Igarovaravitch is the 4th worst pitcher on the spreadsheet, according to my increasingly obviously shoddy rankings.
                        Why the leapin' F can't I come up with a good pitching rankings formula after doing like 50 of these damn things? Hitting I have down pretty well. Pitching, I'm just too focused on the rate stats so relievers with 400IP and tiny ERAs and WHIPs get way up at the top. There's a top pitcher who might go undrafted --- top 20 guy.
                        More American children die by gunfire in a year than on-duty police officers and active duty military.

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                        • Split your relievers from your starters. Give them their own baseline, but use the same delta value as starters for SO, W, ERA, WHIP. Get the saves delta value from the relievers. Eckersly and Smoltz will still be weird. Deadball pitchers will probably still make starters weird.

                          I do this for fantasy baseball (I also split catchers), and it works even better there. For that, I can also prorate $ values based on how the league tends to spend on each group. So if a league tends to spend $14 per hitter, $8 per catcher, $11 per starting pitcher, $8 per reliever, I prevent myself from overspending when there is a catcher outlier.
                          people called me an idiot for burning popcorn in the microwave, but i know the real truth. - nullnor

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                          • And I assume you are multiplying your era, whip deltas by (ip for the pitcher)/(average ip for the group). Easiest way to get average ip for the group is to find a similar draft, get the median ip for by, career, divide it by # of pitchers
                            people called me an idiot for burning popcorn in the microwave, but i know the real truth. - nullnor

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                            • I’ve used a pts per stat metric for years (decades??) now, and then use a very unscientific multiplier depending on the type of draft (era, franchise, letter, etc). I still don’t think I have it down just yet — how much more time do I need?? — but it generally works well enough.

                              I still tend to draft without a punt strategy most of the time and typically just use a VBD type strategy.

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                              • Originally posted by Controller Jacobs View Post
                                And I assume you are multiplying your era, whip deltas by (ip for the pitcher)/(average ip for the group). Easiest way to get average ip for the group is to find a similar draft, get the median ip for by, career, divide it by # of pitchers
                                This is what I guess most people who aren't familiar with formulas and excel with have trouble with.

                                When I did this many years ago I set 192ip for average BY and 2450ip for average career. That was a long time ago. I have a bunch of other modifiers that I don't even understand anymore.

                                ---------

                                For anyone who needs this:

                                So guys with huge IP will get either huge bonuses or penalties to their ratios. And guys with lower than average IP will get a lower / negative multiplier ... meaning that low IP closers won't get as many points as George Bradley's 600IP of 1.23 ERA. Bradley's multiplier to the base would be say 2.5x, whereas Kirby Yates 1.19 ERA would only get say x0.4.

                                So if the average BY ERA is say 1.95. You add an incremental amount of points for every point that is under the average. So let's say for example you get Zero points for having a 1.95 ERA. it won't harm or improve your team. And for every tick higher or lower you get say +/-5 points.

                                So Bradley would get 72x5=360. But he has a much higher IP count, so add the 2.5 multiplier to account for this. Bradley scores 900 for his BY ERA
                                Yates would get 76x5= 380. But he has well below the average number of IP, only 60ip. When you add the 0.45 mulitplier, Yates scores 171 for BY ERA.

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