Lock Down Dynasty - Bleday Mate! (Ken and Byron)

[Ken]

By now you know the format, here's our team:

C Will Smith
1B Brandon Belt
2B Jonathan Villar
3B Yuli Gurriel
SS Bo Bichette
MI Michael Chavis
CI Kris Bryant
OF Nomar Mazara
OF Aristedes Aquino
OF Wil Myers
OF Jordan Luplow
OF A.J. Pollock
UT Colin Moran
UT Alex Dickerson

RSV Josh Reddick
RSV Orlando Arcia

P Walker Buehler
P Aaron Nola
P Eduardo Rodriguez
P Steven Matz
P Dakota Hudson
P Spencer Turnbull
P Zach Davies
P Amir Garrett
P Jose Leclerc

RSV Mychal Givens
RSV Brad Keller
RSV Jeff Samardzija
RSV Danny Duffy
RSV Reyes Moronta

Minors:

Casey Mize
Carter Kieboom
Cristian Pache
Brendan McKay
Logan Gilbert
Abraham Toro-Hernandez
Brett Baty
Brady Singer
Rece Hinds
Sam Huff
Freudis Nova
Victor Mesa (the younger one)
Zack Thompson
Anderson Tejeda
Shane Langeliers
Cristian Javier
Jose De La Cruz
Matt Thompson
Antoine Kelly
Logan Davidson
Jack Kochanowicz
Griffin Conine
Demarcus Evans
Jared Walsh
Trey Harris

Some comments:

Byron was our prospect guy, he follows it closer than I do and that's why I was so anxious to have him as a co-owner. Honestly I was going to be lost on the minors because my other leagues don't go nearly this deep (the closest is a keep-15 keeper mixed, but it's much much shallower and minors only go to the top ~20 or so).

Our strategy was to toe the line between young MLB and good prospects. Obviously that's a hard thing to do, the teams that went one way or the other may have more success. But with this team I think we are looking at contending for a top ~5 slot the first couple years and then hopefully pushing it over the top after that. We'll see!

Going in I knew that the league skewed away from pitching so I had planned on trying to take advantage of that. Buehler at 1.16 was the first indication of that, but in general we pushed pitching more than other teams. The M/F lineup changes should reward that as we hope to be able to field a large number of SP relative to competition.

On the prospect side we had more pitchers than average as well, and we think that our top pitching prospects (Mize, McKay, Gilbert, Singer) should help us maintain that SP advantage even when some of our older pitchers (Shark/Duffy) decline. Pitchers are going to get hurt, yes, but that rule applies for everyone and if we are able to get an advantage on the pitching side without giving up too much on the hitting then we have half the categories in our pocket at above average levels.

Speed was something we prioritized and Villar/Bichette/Myers should hopefully give us some steals in the short term at least. OBP may be just average or below, Bryant helps along with Yuli and Belt for the next couple years.

On the low end minors we were surprised to be able to pick up the Thompsons pretty late, and Conine and Walsh may provide some power in the shorter term.

Aquino is an interesting one, obviously OBP is an issue, and he does need to find a starting spot, but in a dynasty we're willing to wait that out. The power/speed combo could be huge once he is able to get some time, and he was hitting cleanup for them last year. That said, an uninjured mlb player taking up a bench spot is a liability for a team trying to compete. It's a big risk/reward play, we'll see where it ends up.

Funny we went in not expecting to get Pache, both of us are lower than the market on him because his skillset skews towards defense. But he fell so far in this draft (pick 185) that he was too hard too pass up. With short benches and a relatively deep league (20 team mixed), just getting full time ABs is a valuable asset, and we think Pache is going to get that easily.

[Hornsby]

Interesting team, if you put it on a scale with hitting on one side and pitching on the other, I believe it'd be as close to balanced as any team in the league. Hard to find too much fault in this bunch, I guess if anything, it's a little long in the tooth, but it'll play well for 3-5 years, at which time the kids may be ready to take over. Wasn't a fan of the Aquino pick, but if there's anyone in the league that can provide instant offense, he's the guy. All he needs is a shot.

I like the starting pitching, and I think that you can comb the pile to find adequate holds guys pretty much every year. They seem to change that much. I'm with you on Pache...I had a choice between him and Marsh in a deal last year and I went with Marsh because I think the hit tool is better. But there's no question his defense is going to keep him in the lineup unless he simply can[t put bat to ball. Keiboom is going to be last years bum, IMO, and become a real force in DC. I always like last years bum.

Good team that should contend for several years at the very least...

[Teenwolf]

The offense has a few too many fillers for my comfort. Belt/Villar/Gurriel at first, second, third, are all unlikely to last long or do enough to bring you to contention. Villar is someone I've bought into several times, with successes and failures. But he's getting older, his batting metrics from last year seem extremely lucky to have resulted in his final numbers. Villar will determine a lot for this offense. Gurriel is getting old, not traditionally a HR guy, also not traditionally a big OBP guy. Belt never fulfilled his potential and looks unlikely to after several years of spinning his wheels. W. Smith, Bichette, and Bryant are good building blocks. Chavis has potential to bust out as a big HR hitter, but below average defense means the bat will need to be solidly above average to play. With a ton of swing and miss in the profile, too much bust potential for me, but if he hits, that's huge for your team's chances.

I also really like the boom/bust nature of the Aquino pick. I considered him myself around where you took him. My feeling on Aquino is that if he's able to become a starting big league outfielder, the type of swing and power he carries gives him a massive ceiling. Adding a handful of SB's is just gravy. The odds of Aquino hitting this ceiling are quite low, I'd wager 20% or so, but a gamble worth taking. After that, it's a lot of mediocrity on offense. Kieboom and Pache becoming full-timers quickly would definitely help boost the offense.

Pitching looks very good. I go for a 3 aces strategy, given that you should expect to lose 1/3 ace SP's each year due to injury or mental blowup. Your 3 aces are very nice. Buehler, Nola, E-Rod is a great base. Hudson and Turnbull are fine SP flyers. On the farm, Mize, McKay, and Singer are all close to the majors, with solid pedigree. Good selection of pitchers, IMO.

Prospects are alright. I like the preference shown towards guys with close ETA's, as I think holding onto teenagers for years takes a lot of opportunity cost, and you found a decent balance. Several guys will be top 100's. Enough fuel to upgrade the offense if you find yourself in contention.

[KnuckleBalls]

I like this team and actually envisioned a start of Buehler/Bichette as I was dreaming of who could fall to me at 19. I too like the starting pitching base a lot as it is a really nice combo of production and youth. Mize, Mckay and Singer should all be close and productive. Many groans came from the knuckleballs draft room after your picks as I must have waved Bleday Mate to at least a a half dozen of knuckleball hopefuls. Offense has some holes and age but almost all do. Looks compete early and have some staying power.

[wombat104]

All teams will have holes in a 20 person league, but I like the balance that you were able to strike between now & later. As some have mentioned you have some older hitters like Belt and Gurriel but they are 1B's so they should be easier to replace and even though it seems like Villar has been around forever he is only 28. I liked the Aquino gamble along with grabbing Pache, right when you grabbed him I was digging into him to figure out if I wanted to go after him with my next pick (Riley Greene was my consolation prize). I have an irrational distrust of E-Rod so even removing him I like your pitching depth, especially given your higher minor pitchers.

Some other guys I liked relative to their draft position are: Luplow, Abraham Toro, Arcia, and Tejada. I'm not as high on some of your other minor hitters, but really it is all a crap shoot anyway.