20 team dynasty league startup was very interesting. I had an okay draft, with a good mix of major league and minor league assets. Projections put my team in 10th, which seems pretty accurate. I'll need some of my boom/bust picks to pay off, and I'll need to wait for Chris Sale and hope he returns strong. I'm counting on some of my farm guys jumping onto top 100 lists to package together for the additional core bats I'll need.
Some commentary on the first 10 picks.
Rd 1 - J. Ramirez - 3B - CLE - I wanted someone as young as possible with a proven elite record, and hopefully some SB's. Tall order. I love that Ramirez has 2 seasons with 7+ WAR. He figured out his mechanics from a poor 1st half to get back to the MVP caliber of the previous 2 years. Older than I wanted from 10th overall, but at 27, he's my anchor.
Rd 2 - K. Marte - 2B/OF - ARZ - I was ready to grab J. Flaherty here, but he was scooped the pick before me. Also considered Pete Alonso (taken #32) and X. Bogaerts (#36). Marte gets the edge for SB + position flexibility, and I also loved seeing another 7+ WAR season... the MVP tier, in my mind. I often use K and BB rates to determine which hitters have the most sustainable skillsets. Ramirez and Marte both had stellar contact and discipline, with great power, and added SB. Solid hitting duo.
Rd 3 - L. Giolito - SP - CWS - Robles (#45) and Gallo (#49) both scooped just before me. Debated Giolito (25) vs Clevinger (29), age was the deciding factor. I also love the bump Grandal's framing provides (until robot umps in 2022 at least), I love the CWS lineup potential for W's, plus Giolito has the prospect pedigree to make me a believer. Also, damn Mondesi is falling hard in the OBP format... tempting to grab him, but it would change the entire OBP team building philosophy for me. Would rather piecemeal my SB with hitters I like than cater the whole lineup to his lack of OBP. He went #58.
Rd 4 - C. Biggio - 2B - TOR - Considered E. Suarez (already had 3B, is that a dumb reason to avoid?), M. Conforto (Power with high BB rate), and J. Hader (time for the 1st closer?). Biggio is my biggest reach so far. He typically suffers on lists due to the BA/OBP discrepancy, but his massive BB rate put him in my sights. 20/20 profile gives a high floor, OBP greatly improves the profile and ceiling. Plus, Vlad and Bichette scooped just before me in 1st and 2nd rds, and I wanted a high profile Blue Jay.
Rd 5 - A. Rizzo - 1B - CHC - Rizzo is my safety pick. He had fallen too far, as the few dynasty lists I saw had him in the 50-60 range (this pick was 90th). Also considered M. Muncy (similar hitter, went #91). Still only 30, maintains incredible plate discipline and power, with a touch of SB, and OBP around .380-.400. Lots to like.
Rd 6 - Z. Gallen - SP - ARZ - Had eyes on M. Soroka (taken just before), and Gallen replaces Soroka as the young insta-ace... also really wanted N. Madrigal here. Madrigal's numbers make you envision wild fantasies, and I did a lot of dreaming on him. My issues with Madrigal are, firstly, batting titles don't matter in OBP leagues. Ask Tim Anderson. HR/SB are more important than OBP (also ask Tim Anderson?). Madrigal offers SB, but how many? Success rate down at each successive level. If he's more of a 15-20 SB guy, and hits under 10 HR, it's hard to see the profile reaching the peak of my fantasies. Also, Biggio is my 2B, Madrigal is a fun toy but unnecessary.
Rd 7 - JD Davis - 3B/OF - Another reach, much higher than most lists had him, but I love the guy. His batting metrics show a premier hitter. V. Brujan is another one I wanted here (taken #132), but had to make my big reach. Fortunately, X. Edwards is similar, and I was able to scoop Edwards in the 15th Rd.
Rd 8 - D. Varsho - C/OF - ARZ - My biggest reach of the draft to this point. I was desperate for Varsho given his ceiling. Who's the last eligible catcher to nab 20 SB? Jason Kendall? Varsho seems like the next Schwarber defensively, just barely enough glove to earn C eligibility for a few years while the bat plays enough to move him to CF/LF, or play him as an OF starter 100-120 games and C backup. I also love Varsho's BB and K rates, so the combo of the type of bat I like, and the type of profile I like (HR/SB), the possibility of a unicorn was too much to wait any longer on. Varsho was the 31st prospect taken.
Rd 9 - Y. Darvish - SP - CHC - Pitching run. Taken since last rd: Montas, Hendricks, Greinke, Bumgarner, S. Gray, Syndergaard, AJ Puk, Wheeler, and Patino. I would have taken Darvish ahead of every one of those arms, so I did a little dance when the SP run was happening and somehow he made it back to me.
Darvish's 2nd half numbers are mind-blowing. I'm taking a chance that he figured things out and is back to pre-TJ dominance, based on his 2nd half numbers.
Rd 10 - C. Sale - SP - BOS - Pitching run continues with 8 more SP, 2 closers: Severino, E. Rodriguez, McCullers, S. Howard, Morton, H-J Ryu, Paxton, E. Diaz, and Chapman. I wanted Chris Sale soooooo badly here. Super stoked he made it to me. I'm amazed that Thor and Severino were both taken before Sale, as he has a more dominant record, and is only a couple years older. The glut after Sale seemed steep. (next pitchers taken were C. Kluber, G. Marquez, and S. Manaea) The Sale pick slightly hurts 2020 chances if a season happens. Greatly helps from 2022 forward. Aces are hard to find.
C - J. Castro (Rd. 51)
1B - A. Rizzo (Rd. 5)
2B - K. Marte (Rd. 2)
SS - D. Fletcher (Rd. 19)
3B - J. Ramirez (Rd. 1)
OF - JD Davis (Rd. 7)
OF - I. Happ (Rd. 11)
OF - A. McCutchen (Rd. 16)
OF - M. Haniger (Rd. 18)
OF - R. Quinn (Rd. 20)
CI - L. Voit (Rd. 12)
MI - C. Biggio (Rd. 4)
UT - M. Carpenter (Rd. 30)
UT - J. Wendle (Rd. 40)
SP1 - C. Sale (Rd. 10)
SP2 - L. Giolito (Rd. 3)
SP3 - Z. Gallen (Rd. 6)
SP4 - Y. Darvish (Rd. 9)
SP5 - J. Means (Rd. 17)
SP6 - M. Pineda (Rd. 23)
SP7 - N. Eovaldi (Rd. 28)
RP - T. Duffey (Rd. 24)
RP - T. May (Rd. 25)
BENCH
RP - C. Knebel (Rd. 29)
RP - T. Rogers - SF (Rd. 32)
RP - M. Strahm (Rd. 41)
RP - C. Martin (Rd. 46)
SP - T. Thornton (Rd. 44)
SP - T. Williams (Rd. 53)
C - R. Chirinos (Rd. 54)
FARM
1 - D. Varsho - C - ARZ (Rd. 8)
2 - E. Pena - OF - KC (Rd. 13)
3 - R. Puason - SS - OAK (Rd. 14)
4 - X. Edwards - SS - TB (Rd. 18)
5 - Heriberto Hernandez - OF - TEX (Rd. 21)
6 - Hedbert Perez - OF - MIL (Rd. 22)
7 - E. Small - SP - MIL (Rd. 26)
8 - A. Manoah - SP - TOR (Rd. 27)
9 - J. Ryan - SP - TB (Rd. 31)
10 - D. Jefferies - SP - OAK (Rd. 33)
11 - S. Delaplane - RP - SEA (Rd. 34)
12 - E. Duran - 2B - NYY (Rd. 35)
13 - G. Celestino - OF - MIN (Rd. 36)
14 - T. Davidson - SP - ATL (Rd. 37)
15 - Canaan Smith - OF - NYY (Rd. 38)
16 - R. Jeffers - C - MIN (Rd. 39)
17 - J. Devers - 2B - MIA (Rd. 42)
18 - R. Green - OF - NYY (Rd. 43)
19 - O. Basabe - SS - MIN (Rd. 45)
20 - D. Dunning - SP - CWS (Rd. 47)
21 - T. Szapucki - SP - NYM (Rd. 48)
22 - Yerry Rodriguez - SP - TEX (Rd. 49)
23 - M. Yajure - SP - NYY (Rd. 50)
24 - Yeison Santana - SS - SD (Rd. 52)
25 - L. Kelly - SP - ARZ (Rd. 55)
Some commentary on the first 10 picks.
Rd 1 - J. Ramirez - 3B - CLE - I wanted someone as young as possible with a proven elite record, and hopefully some SB's. Tall order. I love that Ramirez has 2 seasons with 7+ WAR. He figured out his mechanics from a poor 1st half to get back to the MVP caliber of the previous 2 years. Older than I wanted from 10th overall, but at 27, he's my anchor.
Rd 2 - K. Marte - 2B/OF - ARZ - I was ready to grab J. Flaherty here, but he was scooped the pick before me. Also considered Pete Alonso (taken #32) and X. Bogaerts (#36). Marte gets the edge for SB + position flexibility, and I also loved seeing another 7+ WAR season... the MVP tier, in my mind. I often use K and BB rates to determine which hitters have the most sustainable skillsets. Ramirez and Marte both had stellar contact and discipline, with great power, and added SB. Solid hitting duo.
Rd 3 - L. Giolito - SP - CWS - Robles (#45) and Gallo (#49) both scooped just before me. Debated Giolito (25) vs Clevinger (29), age was the deciding factor. I also love the bump Grandal's framing provides (until robot umps in 2022 at least), I love the CWS lineup potential for W's, plus Giolito has the prospect pedigree to make me a believer. Also, damn Mondesi is falling hard in the OBP format... tempting to grab him, but it would change the entire OBP team building philosophy for me. Would rather piecemeal my SB with hitters I like than cater the whole lineup to his lack of OBP. He went #58.
Rd 4 - C. Biggio - 2B - TOR - Considered E. Suarez (already had 3B, is that a dumb reason to avoid?), M. Conforto (Power with high BB rate), and J. Hader (time for the 1st closer?). Biggio is my biggest reach so far. He typically suffers on lists due to the BA/OBP discrepancy, but his massive BB rate put him in my sights. 20/20 profile gives a high floor, OBP greatly improves the profile and ceiling. Plus, Vlad and Bichette scooped just before me in 1st and 2nd rds, and I wanted a high profile Blue Jay.
Rd 5 - A. Rizzo - 1B - CHC - Rizzo is my safety pick. He had fallen too far, as the few dynasty lists I saw had him in the 50-60 range (this pick was 90th). Also considered M. Muncy (similar hitter, went #91). Still only 30, maintains incredible plate discipline and power, with a touch of SB, and OBP around .380-.400. Lots to like.
Rd 6 - Z. Gallen - SP - ARZ - Had eyes on M. Soroka (taken just before), and Gallen replaces Soroka as the young insta-ace... also really wanted N. Madrigal here. Madrigal's numbers make you envision wild fantasies, and I did a lot of dreaming on him. My issues with Madrigal are, firstly, batting titles don't matter in OBP leagues. Ask Tim Anderson. HR/SB are more important than OBP (also ask Tim Anderson?). Madrigal offers SB, but how many? Success rate down at each successive level. If he's more of a 15-20 SB guy, and hits under 10 HR, it's hard to see the profile reaching the peak of my fantasies. Also, Biggio is my 2B, Madrigal is a fun toy but unnecessary.
Rd 7 - JD Davis - 3B/OF - Another reach, much higher than most lists had him, but I love the guy. His batting metrics show a premier hitter. V. Brujan is another one I wanted here (taken #132), but had to make my big reach. Fortunately, X. Edwards is similar, and I was able to scoop Edwards in the 15th Rd.
Rd 8 - D. Varsho - C/OF - ARZ - My biggest reach of the draft to this point. I was desperate for Varsho given his ceiling. Who's the last eligible catcher to nab 20 SB? Jason Kendall? Varsho seems like the next Schwarber defensively, just barely enough glove to earn C eligibility for a few years while the bat plays enough to move him to CF/LF, or play him as an OF starter 100-120 games and C backup. I also love Varsho's BB and K rates, so the combo of the type of bat I like, and the type of profile I like (HR/SB), the possibility of a unicorn was too much to wait any longer on. Varsho was the 31st prospect taken.
Rd 9 - Y. Darvish - SP - CHC - Pitching run. Taken since last rd: Montas, Hendricks, Greinke, Bumgarner, S. Gray, Syndergaard, AJ Puk, Wheeler, and Patino. I would have taken Darvish ahead of every one of those arms, so I did a little dance when the SP run was happening and somehow he made it back to me.
Darvish's 2nd half numbers are mind-blowing. I'm taking a chance that he figured things out and is back to pre-TJ dominance, based on his 2nd half numbers.
Rd 10 - C. Sale - SP - BOS - Pitching run continues with 8 more SP, 2 closers: Severino, E. Rodriguez, McCullers, S. Howard, Morton, H-J Ryu, Paxton, E. Diaz, and Chapman. I wanted Chris Sale soooooo badly here. Super stoked he made it to me. I'm amazed that Thor and Severino were both taken before Sale, as he has a more dominant record, and is only a couple years older. The glut after Sale seemed steep. (next pitchers taken were C. Kluber, G. Marquez, and S. Manaea) The Sale pick slightly hurts 2020 chances if a season happens. Greatly helps from 2022 forward. Aces are hard to find.
C - J. Castro (Rd. 51)
1B - A. Rizzo (Rd. 5)
2B - K. Marte (Rd. 2)
SS - D. Fletcher (Rd. 19)
3B - J. Ramirez (Rd. 1)
OF - JD Davis (Rd. 7)
OF - I. Happ (Rd. 11)
OF - A. McCutchen (Rd. 16)
OF - M. Haniger (Rd. 18)
OF - R. Quinn (Rd. 20)
CI - L. Voit (Rd. 12)
MI - C. Biggio (Rd. 4)
UT - M. Carpenter (Rd. 30)
UT - J. Wendle (Rd. 40)
SP1 - C. Sale (Rd. 10)
SP2 - L. Giolito (Rd. 3)
SP3 - Z. Gallen (Rd. 6)
SP4 - Y. Darvish (Rd. 9)
SP5 - J. Means (Rd. 17)
SP6 - M. Pineda (Rd. 23)
SP7 - N. Eovaldi (Rd. 28)
RP - T. Duffey (Rd. 24)
RP - T. May (Rd. 25)
BENCH
RP - C. Knebel (Rd. 29)
RP - T. Rogers - SF (Rd. 32)
RP - M. Strahm (Rd. 41)
RP - C. Martin (Rd. 46)
SP - T. Thornton (Rd. 44)
SP - T. Williams (Rd. 53)
C - R. Chirinos (Rd. 54)
FARM
1 - D. Varsho - C - ARZ (Rd. 8)
2 - E. Pena - OF - KC (Rd. 13)
3 - R. Puason - SS - OAK (Rd. 14)
4 - X. Edwards - SS - TB (Rd. 18)
5 - Heriberto Hernandez - OF - TEX (Rd. 21)
6 - Hedbert Perez - OF - MIL (Rd. 22)
7 - E. Small - SP - MIL (Rd. 26)
8 - A. Manoah - SP - TOR (Rd. 27)
9 - J. Ryan - SP - TB (Rd. 31)
10 - D. Jefferies - SP - OAK (Rd. 33)
11 - S. Delaplane - RP - SEA (Rd. 34)
12 - E. Duran - 2B - NYY (Rd. 35)
13 - G. Celestino - OF - MIN (Rd. 36)
14 - T. Davidson - SP - ATL (Rd. 37)
15 - Canaan Smith - OF - NYY (Rd. 38)
16 - R. Jeffers - C - MIN (Rd. 39)
17 - J. Devers - 2B - MIA (Rd. 42)
18 - R. Green - OF - NYY (Rd. 43)
19 - O. Basabe - SS - MIN (Rd. 45)
20 - D. Dunning - SP - CWS (Rd. 47)
21 - T. Szapucki - SP - NYM (Rd. 48)
22 - Yerry Rodriguez - SP - TEX (Rd. 49)
23 - M. Yajure - SP - NYY (Rd. 50)
24 - Yeison Santana - SS - SD (Rd. 52)
25 - L. Kelly - SP - ARZ (Rd. 55)
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