I was having a discussion with a few friends today regarding fantasy baseball. We're assuming there is a season of anywhere from 80-120 games.
All projection systems use a player's typical season to come up with a valid stat line. But those projections assume the normal ups and downs associated with such a long season will get ironed out in the end. But with a season that will be 25%-50% shorter, those deviations will rise to the surface and become greater. A player who goes on a one month tear will now have that be 25% of his season, not 16%. Conversely, a player who goes into an extended cold streak will have that amplified. A player who has a career .310 OBP could have a standard deviation much greater than usual, with a range of outcomes that might be 280-.350.
So how do we gauge this for this uncharted season? Avoid streaky players -- or target them? Will having fantasy baseball at all just be a blessing, and whatever, this will just be a dart throw of a season?
All projection systems use a player's typical season to come up with a valid stat line. But those projections assume the normal ups and downs associated with such a long season will get ironed out in the end. But with a season that will be 25%-50% shorter, those deviations will rise to the surface and become greater. A player who goes on a one month tear will now have that be 25% of his season, not 16%. Conversely, a player who goes into an extended cold streak will have that amplified. A player who has a career .310 OBP could have a standard deviation much greater than usual, with a range of outcomes that might be 280-.350.
So how do we gauge this for this uncharted season? Avoid streaky players -- or target them? Will having fantasy baseball at all just be a blessing, and whatever, this will just be a dart throw of a season?
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