2020 Projections

[revo]

I was having a discussion with a few friends today regarding fantasy baseball. We're assuming there is a season of anywhere from 80-120 games.

All projection systems use a player's typical season to come up with a valid stat line. But those projections assume the normal ups and downs associated with such a long season will get ironed out in the end. But with a season that will be 25%-50% shorter, those deviations will rise to the surface and become greater. A player who goes on a one month tear will now have that be 25% of his season, not 16%. Conversely, a player who goes into an extended cold streak will have that amplified. A player who has a career .310 OBP could have a standard deviation much greater than usual, with a range of outcomes that might be 280-.350.

So how do we gauge this for this uncharted season? Avoid streaky players -- or target them? Will having fantasy baseball at all just be a blessing, and whatever, this will just be a dart throw of a season?

[chancellor]

LOL - a buddy and I were discussing this just yesterday; we called it the "Justin Upton dilemma". I bailed on JUp at 12 in my AL only for Choi at 6 and a 1st round reserve pick, and am feeling a lot better about that.

I'm also wondering about Kluber, given his history of slow starts.

[revo]

LOL - a buddy and I were discussing this just yesterday; we called it the "Justin Upton dilemma". I bailed on JUp at 12 in my AL only for Choi at 6 and a 1st round reserve pick, and am feeling a lot better about that.

I'm also wondering about Kluber, given his history of slow starts.

Yeah, my friend had jokingly brought up Niko Goodrum, and said "and his .310 OBP," which got me thinking that in an abbreviated year like this, you could easily see a Goodrum-type have a .350 OBP because of the lack of enough games.

Also, due to the lack of a minor league system this year, you might see players who were likely going to play 50%-60% of the time now playing 90% or more, since there won't be a big enough pool to replace them (i.e. Jarrod Dyson).

[revo]

Another issue is that maybe some foreign players decide the US is too dangerous for them, like Masahiro Tanaka just declared, and they don't return for this season.

[tinitoys]

Really??? I didn’t read his declaration of not returning, just for his and his family safety

[revo]

Really??? I didn’t read his declaration of not returning, just for his and his family safety

No, I didn’t say he wasn’t returning, but that this may be a reason for him not to return.

[Gregg]

I was having a discussion with a few friends today regarding fantasy baseball. We're assuming there is a season of anywhere from 80-120 games.

All projection systems use a player's typical season to come up with a valid stat line. But those projections assume the normal ups and downs associated with such a long season will get ironed out in the end. But with a season that will be 25%-50% shorter, those deviations will rise to the surface and become greater. A player who goes on a one month tear will now have that be 25% of his season, not 16%. Conversely, a player who goes into an extended cold streak will have that amplified. A player who has a career .310 OBP could have a standard deviation much greater than usual, with a range of outcomes that might be 280-.350.

So how do we gauge this for this uncharted season? Avoid streaky players -- or target them? Will having fantasy baseball at all just be a blessing, and whatever, this will just be a dart throw of a season?

I would think that the notoriously slow starters would still start notoriously slow. This would devalue them.

[Ken]

I would think that the notoriously slow starters would still start notoriously slow. This would devalue them.

I don't know that's necessarily the case. Some "slow starters" simply perform better in warmer weather, so you'd have the opposite situation actually. I'd be cautious putting too much into this.

[Judge Jude]

yes, it's possible that is more likely to be the case if the slow starter is from a warm climate, whether south Florida, southern California, Dominican Republic, etc.

it's pretty clear from some of the bundling up they do in northern cities - when the fans in the stands are just wearing unzipped, light jackets - that they are kind of miserable.

[cavebird]

My guess is there no season so projections are easy.

[ThatRogue]

My guess is there no season so projections are easy.

Speak your negativity elsewhere...you are rebuked!!!