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**Judge Jude** · 03-21-2020, 11:49 PM

point of order: I think another poster may have done something generally similar more than a decade ago, not sure.

I did refine it a bit because, yeah writing is in my wheelhouse. I enjoy other variations here as well.

it may have helped, too, that I seem to take an unconventional approach in most years - and seeing one succeed and the next one fail, rinse and repeat, may encourage other posters to try a bold approach and also don't beat yourself up if it fails. it's supposed to be fun!

**chancellor** · 03-22-2020, 10:07 AM

This is gonna be great, I can tell. The chess master is given the white pieces, plays his preferred opening, and now we'll see how the middle game and end game play out!

**Erik** · 03-22-2020, 12:09 PM

5 mandatory RP slots creates a VERY different dynamic. Given that it means RP have more value, has the league given any thought to changing from saves to saves + holds or (saves + holds) - blown saves?

**cavebird** · 03-23-2020, 08:29 PM

To answer the posts---fair point Judge Jude, my memory is not that good, but you have been doing them forever and I think everyone associates these with you---and definitely supposed to be fun. I am enjoying re-living the most fun I will have in a long, long time. chancellor, thank you, but my drafting is not as good and I was last a master in 2002 (the kid who took the title from me [Kazim Gulamil] is now an IM (international master)). But, fwiw, my preferred opening is the Bird's opening (and the first four letters of my last name are "cave", just in case anyone had any doubt where my handle came from). Erik, we have not because too many are old school, and honestly, I am not in favor because holds are a bad stat (a loogy could get one by coming in and walking the one batter he faced). That being said, if the three-batter minimum rule makes holds as good a stat as saves (which ain't so great, either), I might be swayed. In this league, K's only became a category in the last decade; it used to be IP; which explains the strict "everyone questionable is a starter" rule and the breakdown of SP and RP.

But anyway, I have gotten part II typed, so it will be up forthwith.

**cavebird** · 03-23-2020, 08:31 PM

Oops: Predraft Part 4: My Hopes:

This should have been in the last post. The most important thing I wanted was for SP prices to be out of control again. Dave’s keeper list is so good, I needed his one need to be very, very expensive. I assumed he would go for one or two big SP’s and one big CI (the one hitter position he didn’t have). If they went cheapish, he could run away with the league at the auction, and the rest of the league would be reduced to hoping that he had a rash of injuries. As for my hitting strategy, it was to get enough average with power, runs, and rbi, and get guys with some steals, rather than paying for steals-only guys and get trapped in that mess. Yes, those guys are expensive, but I had auction cash.

First Round of the Auction:

Randomly, the defending champ tossed Mallex Smith first (we toss in order of the previous year’s standings; the reserve snake draft starts with a random draw winner going first, then in order, but snaking). He wasn’t part of my plan and went to an expansion team for $7. I tossed next and tossed deGrom to get a big SP out there when people had the most money. It worked perfectly. Steve decided to atone for his off-season trade with Dave (okay, he just wanted top SP’s to use in dump trades) and the bidding between them went insane, with Steve winning at $58. The next guy (Jeff) tossed Trout, who went for $64, down $3 from last year. (Note, when I don’t note the winner of a player, it means that team isn’t relevant to this story, not that the team isn’t relevant. In this case, it was the guy who finished fifth last year with pitchers and pinch-runners.) Then Dave was bold and tossed Buehler. Steve struck again, and won the ensuing bidding war for $56. I could not have asked for a better start. The next guy tossed Verlander, and he went for $44 to the commissioner. [Side note: the commissioner has won this league six times, so I should never criticize his theories. Still, he kept three very high priced keepers (Yelich for a good price, Rendon and Baez at or above value given the extra contract renegotiation penalties) and explained it to me with the thought that so many expansion teams with the full $300 would make stars cost more. That made no sense to me; I thought that meant less inflation and a reason not to keep such players. He still had a very good draft with an iffy keeper list and should contend. Hat tip to him.] Next team (the commissioner) tossed Scherzer and Dave finally won a bidding war (he was the last total stud SP) for $57. I knew Dave would get at least one; he usually drafts well, and he had to get one regardless of the cost given his keeper list. I was happy he paid a ridiculous price. I think deGrom, Buehler, and Scherzer would all be league record pitcher prices. So far, so, so good.

Then game the hitters. Story was next; he went for $43 about $8 more than I valued him (note, all my values were my settings on RotoLab, which gets it from BaseballHQ projections---some of which I disagree with, so I ignore them sometimes), so I bailed a bit before he was bought, even though he was a nice power/speed guy at MI. After Story was Bellinger, and Dave got him for $55; $1 over his base value to me and $2 below inflated value. I didn’t want a hitter that pricey, and I was still happy. That was $55 that Dave wasn’t going to spend on pitching or hitting bargains that would come later. It was part of his plan, as he explained later, and that still worked for me. Then came Hader, who went to one of the expansion teams (Colin) for $35. Yikes. Then there was Snell, who went for $31, well above my valuation, but I loved it given that he was another pitcher off the board not for Dave.

Then came Freddie (Freeman). It’s no secret that I am a Braves homer, and I had Freddie as a keeper for a while a long time ago. Then everyone assumed that I would always buy him, regardless of price, so someone always tosses him in the first round. I haven’t owned him since 2017. I’ll pay a fair price for him, but I have happily dropped him on the same guy the last two years for $50. This year, with only 15 teams, my program had him (fairly to me) valued at $42 without inflation, $44 with inflation. And the guy who had him the last two years was one of the four who left. I got him for $44. At this point, I am living high on the hog---at least as high on the hog as one can be while drafting with a mask on from a pool table that was part of a three-table makeshift draft room (which worked just fine; hat tip to the commish and his wife (she also has a team) for being great hosts and adjusting on the fly). The rest of the first round was players who went over value to expansion teams (but not Colin, more on that later): David Price $21, George Springer $33, Arendado $50, and Nelson Cruz who went for a bargain at $31, but I wasn’t interested because I didn’t want to fill my UT slot so early and because he’s not necessarily a next-year asset in a year when we don’t know if there will even be a season.

Rounds 2-4:

From here on out, I will only list relevant players; otherwise I will never finish, lol. In Round 2, Colin, the expansion team owner mentioned above, bought Yates for $31 and Bieber for $35. Dave got Goldschmidt for $31, a $1/$3 bargain (without/with inflation), and again, that worked for me---$31 more than won’t be spent on pitching. Jose Ramirez went for an over-value $51, as did Devers for $38, although Devers tempted me, I got bid beyond my comfort zone; he went $7 over my value and I was trying to stick to the plan and only go $5 over for young upside guys, at most. Stanton went for a very reasonable $30 to an expansion team (not Colin), which was a good future buy at that price if he can prove some health, ever.

Round 3’s second player was Darvish, who Dave got for $29. That wasn’t the worst overpay, but it was Dave’s maximum bid---putting him in dollar days before lunch with 11 players left to go. He said later (probably at lunch, which was after Round 4) that this was his plan all along---two big corners and two SP’s, then dollar days because he figured dollar days wouldn’t be bad because we were down to 15 teams. An interesting and risky strategy. Jeff got Merrifield for $29; I was tempted, but passed; I didn’t want a big speed guy who is that old and whose speed is declining. Sale went for $10 as a long-term keeper play. Jeff kept buying and got Ryu for $14. I was in until he went over the $10-11 mark. I just didn’t need pitching that much, and the lowish K’s and AL East move scared me. In retrospect, maybe I should have bid more. Colin kept up the pitching plan and got Bauer for $22 and Kimbrel for $23. Kluber went for $25; I was scared off at about $15. As the top hitters dwindled, I struck twice on young, upside guys for a little over-value: Bogaerts and Meadows for $33 each; Bogaerts was at my max of $5 over my inflated value (a difference of $1 from uninflated at that point) and Meadows was $4/$3 over value. They were the best left to me at MI and OF, so I was okay---my money stack was too big at that point and talent was disappearing. Hitters were mostly going for $4-5 over my value and pitchers even more. Right after I got Meadows (and he was after Bogaerts), Olson, a target of mine, went for $27—another $4/$3 over value. I passed because I had a 1B in Freddie and had just done this twice and was looking for bargains with my hitting base established. Still, I was very tempted.

Round 4 was mostly irrelevant to this story. Dave got Kwang-Hyun Kim for a buck. Colin kept buying pitching with Glasnow for $21 and Carrasco for $12 (maybe I should have gone $13?). One of my biggest regrets also happened. LeMahieu went for $24. He was a target of mine to keep up average and runs/RBI to allow me to buy cheap power later, and I should have gone higher (I was at $23). He was only $2 over value at $24, but I was in bargain seeking mode after spending $66 in Round 3. I had to pay for this mistake later. Altuve ($27) and McNeil ($26) also left the second base ranks this round.

NEXT: POST III: THE AUCTION MIDDLEGAME

**Judge Jude** · 03-23-2020, 08:55 PM

I like this different storytelling approach

**cavebird** · 03-23-2020, 10:10 PM

Originally posted by Judge Jude View Post

I like this different storytelling approach

Thank you. It would never happen if not for my enforced isolation---the season would start Thursday and well, I'd be busy watching. Now I can update this forever, more or less, until I finish.

but really

**minnehan** · 03-23-2020, 11:50 PM

I'm enjoying this as well. I forgot the season would have started on Thursday. Wow, seems forever ago. It's great to read about your auction. Our PONY auction was the weekend (3/7) just before the sh*t hit the fan.

**cavebird** · 03-24-2020, 08:51 PM

Rounds 5-8:

Things got busy for me right after the resumption. I had decided that the talent was thinning out and that deals, at least in hitting (pitching was hopeless) should be coming. Castellanos was tossed first. My program had him valued at only $18 (there was no inflation left at this point), but I valued him higher and was very happy to get him for $22. I tossed Iglesias next, and since he�s a pitcher, Colin grabbed him for $20. A couple of tosses later, Zac Gallen came out; he was one of my under $10 pitching targets. He went for $17 (to Colin, of course, lol), but I wasn�t too worried---I had a few more under $10 pitching targets left in Luzardo and Fried, and more secondary cheap pitching targets. I was sticking to my plan of trading for pitching keepers in the off-season to avoid the feeding frenzy. Besides, at $17, all the profit had been bid out of Gallen anyway. The next toss was CJ Cron, and I got him for $13, $6 under my value. Now I was getting happy. Luzardo went shortly thereafter---to Steve for $17. All of my helium pitchers had too much helium. My pitching strategy was sort of in taters at that point. We also completely screwed up in the draft room with Luzardo---he�s RP only due to his late season appearances last year, but we had him drafted as a SP without noticing. With the second-to-last toss of the round, Colin tossed Dylan Bundy for $5, for reasons that escape me. He got crickets. That filled his six starters. He also had four of five RP�s. At this point he had spent $179 on 10 pitchers, with only one RP slot left, and had no hitters at all. He later explained that he wasn�t intending to compete in his first year and had heard that pitchers are the ones in demand at dumping time. He wasn�t shy about his strategy. The bigger problem is that he still had one of the biggest money stacks left at $121, and had all of his hitting positions open, but more on that later.

Prices finally started to fall in Round 6, but I had just bought two the last round, so I only got one. I think this is a problem I have that I need to correct in the future---I get gun shy after grabbing a couple of players and sit out for a bit. This is not good because when deals start coming, they often come in clumps. Shame on me. Maeda went for $14. I should have gone higher. At least Jeff just couldn�t quit Byron Buxton (he had him since he was drafted) and wasted $12 on him. Cain went for $12, which my program didn�t like (had him at $7), but I loved. Melancon went for $8, as did Will Smith (the pitcher), and I sat on my hands. However, the second base options were almost gone, and I didn�t have one, so I got Moustakas for $25, which really made me wonder why I didn�t go $25 on LeMahieu. Still, I needed both 3B and 2B, so I was okay with it. Lamet went for $15, so starters weren�t all on discounts, and my list of under $10 targets got silly small. Urias went for $13 to Jeff. I should have at least made him pay more. My pitching strategy was in tatters, but my hitters were good.

My money was low after getting Moustakas, so I sat out Round 7, although there were some bargains. I stuck to my $1 catcher strategy so I mindlessly let Steve get Will Smith (the catcher) for $1. That was criminal on all 14 of the rest of us. Suarez for $25, Brantley for $22, and Conforto for $20 were some other deals this round---all to the defending champ without a good keeper list. He/they (his normal partner was unavailable this year, but at least he wasn�t blitzed and taking off his shirt while jumping on the table like he did last year) had a sneaky good draft. I might have to add their roster with the others in the story at the end.

Starting Round 8, I had two problems. The first was that while I added some small speed in Meadows, I was a bit light. The second problem was that I still needed a MI and a 3B (or 2B) and for some reason, I felt committed to jacking up my hitting because I wasn�t going to overpay for pitching and just ride cheap guys and my keepers. That led to my toughest decision. The third player tossed was Amed Rosario---the last speed guy who wasn�t one dimensional (with only 13 hitter slots, it is tough to roster a Jarrod Dyson because you can�t make up the RBI and R and HR elsewhere easily) and the last good MI. I could have kept him for $16. My program had him valued at $16, but I didn�t keep him because I figured he�s the type of guy who goes for a discount. But he doesn�t when he�s the last good MI and last speed guy who contributes in all five categories. I bit the bullet and got him for $21. Three tosses later, I think I got a steal in Justin Turner at $19. That put my max bid under $20, but filled my offense except for catcher, which would be a $1 guy, two outfield spots, where there would be decent guys cheap (I was already sitting on J.D. Davis and McCutcheon), and my utility spot. My corners and middle were filled; all with good players. My pitching was going to be heavily reliant on my keepers at this point, but I felt a lot better about my team after getting Turner. The other notable thing about Round 8 was that Colin finally got a hitter at the end of it---Khris Davis for $8---an absolutely steal. I should have gone higher, but my money was low and I had just bought two players. My weakness struck again. He followed it up with Christian Walker for $9 (why is he more than Davis???), but still had tons of hitting spots and, relatively, tons of money.

Rounds 9-12:

I figured I would sit out Round 9 with my budget as it was. I was wrong. Fried went early in the round for $17, completely eliminating my main cheap pitching targets. So, in the middle of the round, I got Joe Musgrove for $4. I read something about him from someone who liked him for this year a month ago, so he had a �flyer� designation on my program and that was as good as I could get at this point, so what the hell? Later in the round, I got Brian Anderson to fill and outfield spot for $7, which was an absolute steal per both me and my program. That left me with a max bid of $10. I did sit out Round 10. Dave finally got another player, landing Molina as his catcher for (of course) $1. Diego Castillo, a target of mine since I had Nick Anderson, came out, but I gave up after he went to $5 given my lack of money. In Round 11, I got Anibal Sanchez for $2 because he�s decent on ratios, even if the K�s are low. In Round 12, Colin filled his pitching by spending $7 on LeClerc, and someone got Alfaro for $1, leaving me with the choice of the remaining catchers, which was fine with me. My flavors of garbage available included Christian Vasquez, D�Arnaud, and Posey.

Three Random Asides:

Aside #1 is about a guy named Neil. He has always been one of the great characters in our league. He was one of the four we lost this year, but the one who should return next year. When we briefly replaced giving real plungers to the last place finisher with a plunger trophy, that trophy was named after him. He�s loud and funny. Before he had a kid, he would drink throughout the draft. Afterwards, he would still kick off the draft with a Chimay---hell, his team name was �Dirty Bertie presented by Chimay.� He also tended to hoard his money late into the auction. His targets were random---not necessarily the best player available, not necessarily the one who fit his positional needs. So, if you were sitting on a player that was one of his targets, you would invariably get �Neiled.� No price you bid would be enough---one year I got Neiled on Neil Walker (it was a while back) who went to him for $25 for no reason, but he wanted Walker because of Walker�s first name. It was a shame he wasn�t there this year, but I thought that at least I wouldn�t get Neiled. Silly me.

Aside #2 is about how we run the auction. There are no �hold on� slow plays allowed. Instead, every team has four 30-second timeouts. I always blow through mine early---like with chess, I am a slow drafter. For years, the people who use all their timeouts often ask others who never use them for a timeout. I am the worst offender here, but it happens all the time. People usually oblige since a timeout usually leads to a higher bid on a player, so everyone not in on the bidding is happy with that.

Aside #3 is about what happened at this draft. Apparently, early in the draft, there was an illegal bid (by someone who could not bid on a player because of positional limitations). Because that person got the player, when someone immediately noticed it, the player just went to the previous bidder for $1 less. It was at the other side of the room on a player I was not in on, so I didn�t hear/notice it somehow. It happened a second time when a team bid on a player repeatedly when the team could not fit the player on her roster. It was a weird multi-positional eligibility problem; an honest mistake. That bidding was rolled back to before the first bid she made and continued. I saw and noticed that one.
Needless to say, all three of these asides will become relevant in�

NEXT: POST IV: THE AUCTION ENDGAME

**Judge Jude** · 03-24-2020, 09:08 PM

I have never played in a 1-catcher league.
why would Molina and Alfaro go for $1? I see that it's a mixed league, but not even $2 - out of a $300 budget, no less?

**cavebird** · 03-24-2020, 09:52 PM

Originally posted by Judge Jude View Post

I have never played in a 1-catcher league.
why would Molina and Alfaro go for $1? I see that it's a mixed league, but not even $2 - out of a $300 budget, no less?

Because I was the last to get a catcher and got Vasquez for $1 and Posey and D'Arnaud are on the wire. Down to 15-teams, catchers 6-20 or so are about the same. None of the five in this post (the two you mentioned and the three I did) are particularly better than each other. Catchers are so tough. In a 15 or 16 (our usual) team mixed league, if it is two catcher, there is just garbage at the end; way deeper than other positions---if it is one catcher, it is way shallower than other positions. No way to do 1.5 catchers.

**Judge Jude** · 03-24-2020, 10:15 PM

interesting.

but is 1 catcher really better than 2 catcher in a mixed league like that?

seems like there is a lot of strategy in 2 catcher, which basically gets erased in 1 catcher.

in the latter, there are utter bums all worth about the same. in the former, the decent catchers become the bums all worth about the same.

I have struggled to see the advantage for 1 catcher, especially in a mixed league (full disclosure, we draft 24 catchers in 12-team NL only).

**cavebird** · 03-24-2020, 10:37 PM

I have no idea which is more strategic. In one catcher, the top five matter more. In two catcher leagues, the lower ones do. But I don't have enough pull to change it, so it will be as it is. I have tried to push for things before and my success rate is about 10%. It should be an easy choice given that we only have 13 hitters on an active roster, but no.

**Judge Jude** · 03-24-2020, 10:44 PM

I can see it more in an only league.

might be an example of football fantasy leaguers playing baseball? I don't know of any football leagues that make you scrape the barrel of any position. so the original Rotisserie notion of "yeah, it's hard - it's supposed to be hard!" doesn't resonate.

which is cool. am interested in other analysis of this one - and of comments on this auction!

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Anatomy of a Crazy Auction (very long read)

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