Who do I take with my first pick?

[Ken]

Avoiding leaving stats on the bench is mathematical.

You literally said "it would drive me crazy".

Also we are talking about trading or injury fill ins or playing matchups.

Again, no one is used to this size league, it is tiny. Going by the normal "fill your starters first" should NOT apply here, you should be taking the best player due to the extremely high replacement value. There isn't much difference between the guys taken in the first round of this draft and those who will be on waivers. So take the guy who actually shouldn't be available at this point!

It's highly unlikely someone is going to overpay for Olson in this scenario.

Feels like you are confused - what is meant by "overpay" when Olson is the best player available in this draft and better than some players who were kept.

The OF with ADP between Olson and Pham are Stanton, Gallo and Robles. If Piney can trade Olson for one of them or a better OF, it's a win. I think the chances of this are small. He will probably only have a few trade partners and no leverage.

Why would the chances be small? And leverage doesn't apply here. Again, league context. Replacement level is not what you are used to.

[virgonomic]

You literally said "it would drive me crazy".

It would drive me crazy because leaving stats on the bench is lost value. How often are you going to start the most productive 3 players?

Why would the chances be small? And leverage doesn't apply here. Again, league context. Replacement level is not what you are used to.

A trading partner needs to have a top 15-20 OF to move and need/want a 3B/CI. I don't think there will be many teams in that position. Maybe a month or two in if there is an injury. I'd rather field the best team possible rather than bench a keeper or my first pick waiting for that to happen. Ultimately it's up to Piney to make the final decision. We are just presenting perspectives and scenarios.

[Todd Zola]

Long time listener, occasional caller...

It's Realmuto, and it's not remotely close. In this format, he's a second rounder and you're getting him in the equivalent of the NINTH. I know many of you use the Fangraphs auction calculator -- run it and you'll see.

Yes, the standard approach in one-catcher leagues is waiting, but that's in leagues with 5 OF, a MI and CI. This roster construction completely skews the calculus.

Even without getting into the nuances of valuation, there's a practical explanation. With the quality of the available players, the downgrade, round by round, if drafting Realmuto is minimal. The difference Realmuto and the 12th catcher is significant, much more so than the aggregate small (if any) losses incurred. Not to mention, the available player pool will allow upgrading the non-catchers to a greater extent than churning the 12th catcher.

[Ken]

It would drive me crazy because leaving stats on the bench is lost value. How often are you going to start the most productive 3 players?

That's silly though. It's suggesting you shouldn't draft good players for your bench. This line of discussion isn't worth going down.

A trading partner needs to have a top 15-20 OF to move and need/want a 3B/CI. I don't think there will be many teams in that position. Maybe a month or two in if there is an injury. I'd rather field the best team possible rather than bench a keeper or my first pick waiting for that to happen. Ultimately it's up to Piney to make the final decision. We are just presenting perspectives and scenarios.

Weird, there will always be someone who took the last CI, why do you think that person does not exist?

[Ken]

Long time listener, occasional caller...

It's Realmuto, and it's not remotely close. In this format, he's a second rounder and you're getting him in the equivalent of the NINTH. I know many of you use the Fangraphs auction calculator -- run it and you'll see.

Yes, the standard approach in one-catcher leagues is waiting, but that's in leagues with 5 OF, a MI and CI. This roster construction completely skews the calculus.

Even without getting into the nuances of valuation, there's a practical explanation. With the quality of the available players, the downgrade, round by round, if drafting Realmuto is minimal. The difference Realmuto and the 12th catcher is significant, much more so than the aggregate small (if any) losses incurred. Not to mention, the available player pool will allow upgrading the non-catchers to a greater extent than churning the 12th catcher.

And see, there is a rational analysis! Thank you! I can see the logic behind this more than just "I don't like good stats on my bench" in a shallow league where everyone has good stats on their bench.

[Piney Boy]

Thank you all. Ken gave me good thought, but not many people trade in this league except 2 maybe 3 other guys. League is active, but I dont see trading a way to go most of the time for me. I think Master Zola turned me.

[Gregg]

Thank you all. Ken gave me good thought, but not many people trade in this league except 2 maybe 3 other guys. League is active, but I dont see trading a way to go most of the time for me. I think Master Zola turned me.

Good to Zol when they Zag.

[virgonomic]

That's silly though. It's suggesting you shouldn't draft good players for your bench. This line of discussion isn't worth going down.

This thread is on his first pick and that's what my comments have been geared towards.

[Ken]

This thread is on his first pick and that's what my comments have been geared towards.

It's effectively a 9th round pick? Not a first round pick. And in this size league bench should not scare you.

[Ken]

Good to Zol when they Zag.

Or just always to Zol

[virgonomic]

Long time listener, occasional caller...

It's Realmuto, and it's not remotely close. In this format, he's a second rounder and you're getting him in the equivalent of the NINTH. I know many of you use the Fangraphs auction calculator -- run it and you'll see.

Yes, the standard approach in one-catcher leagues is waiting, but that's in leagues with 5 OF, a MI and CI. This roster construction completely skews the calculus.

Even without getting into the nuances of valuation, there's a practical explanation. With the quality of the available players, the downgrade, round by round, if drafting Realmuto is minimal. The difference Realmuto and the 12th catcher is significant, much more so than the aggregate small (if any) losses incurred. Not to mention, the available player pool will allow upgrading the non-catchers to a greater extent than churning the 12th catcher.

I can't wait to hear what Piney does. There is always a catcher who comes out of nowhere - a few years ago it was Russell Martin who was a top 4 or 6 catcher and I scooped him up as a FA. The #11 and 12 catchers are Narvaez and Molina. Not in Realmuto's class but not useless either. Alfaro, D'Arnaud both Murphys and Jansen are outside the top 12 and could easily produce value inside the top 10. This is why I usually don't draft one of the first 6 catchers unless he slips a round or two and I can't pass him up.

[Piney Boy]

I went with Realmuto. It was tempting to go with Olson.

[virgonomic]

I went with Realmuto. It was tempting to go with Olson.

What's the rest of your team?

[Piney Boy]

Sorry should have posted that.

C- Realmuto
1B Alonso keeper
2b Eduardo Escobar
3b Jose Ramirez keeper
SS Mondesi keeper
OF Blackmon keeper
OF Ozuna
OF Brian Reynolds
UTIL Eugenio Suarez
Bench Verdugo
Bench Hosmer
Bench David Peralta

SP Nola Keeper
SP Morton Keeper
RP Rogers
RP Gallegos
P Berrios Keeper
P Price
P McCullers
Bench Yarborough
Bench Lindblom

I waited too long on my 3rd OF. I like Brian Reynolds, but in a shallow league I don't find him a good starter but just an avg starter. It is an okay team.