Official *MLB Season Delayed* Thread

[TranaGreg]

Players got what they wanted. They won't sit except for cases that are real (family member who is in a risk category, etc.) given how it played out. I don't really care about what social media comments say---anyone can get a troll farm running. As for public opinion, they got what they wanted and public opinion means about as much to them as it did to MLB when they did what they did--something to use as a bargaining chip.

yep ... Trevor Plouffe summed it up nicely last night ...

[harmon]

I'm confused about the universal DH. The players want it so why is that positioned as a player chip that they are giving up?

[chancellor]

They may have won this battle, but I think it cost them in terms of public sentiment. Just a few weeks ago, it seems the majority had this fight as simply the bad guy owners vs the good guy players. Toward the end of this thing, though, I'm seeing more social media comments that suggest the players lost some of the public support to the narrative of both sides being greedy and wasting an opportunity to do right by fans. IDK. Hard to say how everyone really feels or will feel once games are played. And it is hard to say what role public sentiment even plays in future negotiations between owners and players.

Short term, for me, we go back to the question of how many and which players sit this short season out for legit safety concerns or just out of spite/frustration.

I agree with cavebird's point about anyone setting up a troll farm, and every team has more than enough IT chops to do so. And there's owners who will have no compunction about doing something like that. The MLBPA's wins are significant; specifically:

- Expanded rosters for this season, which will be primarily lower-paid players. For the most part, the players added will make much more in a 60-game big league season than a full minor league season, and they get a full year of service time, medical benefits, and MLB perks. And the union gains something around 90 dues-paying members for the year.
- Universal DH for the foreseeable future.
- Retained the right to file a grievance. This is huge going into next year - basically a billion-dollar bargaining chip. This alone, IMO, will prevent the owners from locking out next year. Nothing says "negotiating in bad faith" more than a lockout.
- Players contracts protected for 2021 and beyond should they choose to sit out. Another pretty huge win. I really didn't think the players would get this one, except for clear medical reasons.
- The last win, having nothing to do with the owners, was the uniform backing of the players to allow the MLBPA to do their job and get a deal done. Other than the Blake Snell flareup - which was dealt with quietly and effectively - very little came out on social media that hurt the negotiations or players union position. Going into what will be an even more challenging negotiation next year, that win is very, very important.

[mgwiz22]

Wow. Players won that fight. Got pretty much the same thing and kept the grievance. They knew the owners were boxed in. Harks back to the time when the MLBPA was the most successful union in the world, pretty much. They had not been doing so well recently.

I see this more as a long term loss. There is too much animosity here and there does not seem to be an end in sight for the animosity.

[cavebird]

I see this more as a long term loss. There is too much animosity here and there does not seem to be an end in sight for the animosity.

I am not sure what you mean. It is not like this battle will make the owners more antagonistic towards the MLBPA next year when the CBA expires---more antagonistic than they were already going to be was already more or less impossible.

[Judge Jude]

I think someone touted Bauer here once, but he just done got canceled....

Trevor Bauer
@BauerOutage
·
13h
So we gave up shares of playoff money, eliminating the qualifying offer for 2021, paycheck advance forgiveness, Covid 19 protections, and protection for non guaranteed arb contracts for next year in order to hold on to our right to file a grievance...
Thinking face
Thinking face

[chancellor]

I think someone touted Bauer here once, but he just done got canceled....

Trevor Bauer
@BauerOutage
·
13h
So we gave up shares of playoff money, eliminating the qualifying offer for 2021, paycheck advance forgiveness, Covid 19 protections, and protection for non guaranteed arb contracts for next year in order to hold on to our right to file a grievance...
Thinking face
Thinking face

I'm not a big Bauer fan, but he did at least keep his mouth shut until the deal was essentially done. I have no idea what he means about Covid-19 protections - I think the plan is pretty robust. I think he's wacked on the QO issue, too - given losses, I suspect very few QOs will be offered on the fear that the players will take them. And not recognizing value of a grievance is pretty Bauer-like.

[cavebird]

I'm not a big Bauer fan, but he did at least keep his mouth shut until the deal was essentially done. I have no idea what he means about Covid-19 protections - I think the plan is pretty robust. I think he's wacked on the QO issue, too - given losses, I suspect very few QOs will be offered on the fear that the players will take them. And not recognizing value of a grievance is pretty Bauer-like.

Yes, but Bauer is in the final year of arbitration, and he will likely be one of the few who does get a qualifying offer. Given that his stated preference is to go year to year on contracts and teams won't want to part with a draft pick for a single season of a free agent, he might be the most affected player in baseball on the qualifying offers/no qualifying offers issue.

[Ken]

Yes, but Bauer is in the final year of arbitration, and he will likely be one of the few who does get a qualifying offer.

If he pitches like 2018 certainly. If he pitches like any other year in his career, I don't see that as "likely". In fact, I'd bet against it just in the general sense considering he only has 60 games (12 starts?) to "prove" 2019 as the outlier.

[cavebird]

Even assuming 2018 is the outlier, he still compares favorably to Wheeler given his health history and ability to eat innings.

[chancellor]

Yes, but Bauer is in the final year of arbitration, and he will likely be one of the few who does get a qualifying offer. Given that his stated preference is to go year to year on contracts and teams won't want to part with a draft pick for a single season of a free agent, he might be the most affected player in baseball on the qualifying offers/no qualifying offers issue.

I should have realized, since with Bauer, it's all about Bauer.

[Ken]

Even assuming 2018 is the outlier, he still compares favorably to Wheeler given his health history and ability to eat innings.

Wheeler last 2 years - 3.7 bWAR, 3.9 bWAR

Definitely worth a qualifying offer.

Bauer - last 4 years bWAR - 2.2, 2.9, 5.8, 1.1, fWAR

If you believe 2018 was real, worth it, otherwise, nope.

Add in COVID, and he better hope he has a great 2020...

[cavebird]

Wheeler last 2 years - 3.7 bWAR, 3.9 bWAR

Definitely worth a qualifying offer.

Bauer - last 4 years bWAR - 2.2, 2.9, 5.8, 1.1, fWAR

If you believe 2018 was real, worth it, otherwise, nope.

Add in COVID, and he better hope he has a great 2020...

Wheeler last two years--4.2 fWAR, 4.7 fWAR, total of 8.9 fWAR.

Bauer last two years--5.8 fWAR, 3.3 fWAR, total of 9.1 fWAR.

Wheeler career prior to free agency (six+ years of service time): 12.6 fWAR, 749 IP.

Bauer career prior to free agency (six+ years of service time): 17.4 fWAR + 2020, 1117 IP + 2020.

Bauer compares favorably, especially with Wheeler's injury history.

[Ken]

Your analysis doesn't make sense. You noted that EVEN if 2018 is the outlier Bauer is worth it, but then you used 2018 stats to sell it.

Without 2018, Bauer is not worth a QO.

[cavebird]

Your analysis doesn't make sense. You noted that EVEN if 2018 is the outlier Bauer is worth it, but then you used 2018 stats to sell it.

Without 2018, Bauer is not worth a QO.

If you take Wheeler's best season out, he only has one season over 2.5 fWAR. If you take Bauer's best season out, he has 3 more. Just because 2018 was an outlier doesn't mean it doesn't count at all--he did actually perform that well in 2018---it just means that you don't expect a repeat of it. I use 2.5 fWAR as my cutoff because that an above is generally worth the cost of an accepted qualifying offer under the current market rates. Now, what those will be next year is more or less impossible to tell.

On a non-statistical dive, Wheeler has a little more velocity, but less K producing stuff, and a little more control (at least the last two seasons). He's got a gimpier arm, but his head seems to be screwed on right. Bauer can eat far more innings, but his head, well....