2k20: Nick Senzel

[joncarlos]

Rotoworld updates:

Nick Senzel (shoulder) was able to throw on Wednesday. (Feb 26, 2020, 7:37 PM ET)

Senzel, 24, is recovering from surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder. While being able to throw is a positive sign, there's no timetable as to when he'll be able to play in Cactus League games, according to manager David Bell. Senzel was just so-so in his rookie campaign (.256/.315/.427, 12 homers, 14 steals), but the former top prospect is a breakout candidate for 2020 if he can stay healthy.

Before that:

Nick Senzel (shoulder) is participating in baseball activities but is not throwing at 100 percent. (Feb 13, 2020, 6:04 PM ET)

Senzel had surgery in September to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder. He is currently hitting, running and participating in outfield drills but taking it more slowly when it comes to throwing. He is on a throwing program to ramp up the strength in his shoulder. The team is hopeful he will be ready to play on Opening Day. Senzel had an up-and-down rookie season, slashing .256/.315/.427 with 12 home runs, 42 RBI and 14 stolen bases in 104 games. The 24-year-old was the second overall pick in the 2016 draft.

Projections as posted on Fangraphs:

THE BAT: 418pa 266/330/450 13 HR, 12 SB, 58 R, 48 RBI
ATC: 456pa 264/328/440 14 HR, 14 SB, 60 R, 51 RBI
ZIPS: 457pa 261/326/435 13 HR, 14 SB, 59 R, 52 RBI


And yet he's toting an ADP in the low 200s. Other guys in his range aren't exactly lighting up the radar either, but they should be a lot better than that... Andrew McCutchen, Jo Adell, Joc Pederson, Justin Upton, Adam Eaton. I think my biggest issue with Senzel is that I don't see the upside. I don't see him getting 550 PAs and boosting his R/RBI. I don't see him stealing 20+ bases. Maybe he gets 400 really good PAs and hits .290 with 20 HR and 10 steals. Maybe that's worth it... but that seems like his realistic ceiling. And his stock seems to be rising, not falling.

What am I missing?

[Ken]

I'm probably not buying Senzel either, but I have had some thoughts about why he might be rising in ADP.

1) There was previously concern that his injury was going to keep him out, so his ADP had moved down due to those health concerns. Anything he shows in ST that suggests he's healthy is going to move him back up.
2) Senzel was pulled down in rankings due to the glut of outfielders the Reds brought in. But recent news has suggested that he's going to get AB regardless. Supposedly they are going to find ways to get him in the lineup, even at the expense of others.
3) If he gets 400 PA I don't see why he couldn't steal 15 bases, that's basically what he did last year.

I'd take Senzel over McCutcheon who is trending the wrong way. Adell? I guess that's a playing time question primarily. If Adell is held down until summer I'm on the Senzel side. Pederson? Only a question of how badly you need speed, so in the general case I'd take Joc. Upton was terrible last year, I'd take Senzel. Eaton is safer than Senzel and I'd probably take Eaton but I can definitely see the upside pick in choosing Senzel over him.

[chancellor]

In a standard 5x5 league, I take Eaton pretty easily out of that mess of OFs. The power is dicey, but he'll get you a gajillion runs, respectable SBs and a very good to great BA on a lot of ABs. In an OBP league, McCutcheon, in decline or not, is still my pick.

[Big Tymer]

People are quickly forgetting that Senzel was one of the best hitting prospects in baseball not that long ago. His question is health. If he’s on the field (and he’s trending that way) he’ll get his ABs and if it comes at multiple positions all the better.

I do like Eaton as well so just comes down to the role you need this spot to fill. Eaton is safe but also has his durability concerns. Senzel could go 20/20 if not more.

[Sour Masher]

In a standard 5x5 league, I take Eaton pretty easily out of that mess of OFs. The power is dicey, but he'll get you a gajillion runs, respectable SBs and a very good to great BA on a lot of ABs. In an OBP league, McCutcheon, in decline or not, is still my pick.

I'm with you. Old man cutch doesn't get the respect he deserves, and he isn't that old.

[Ken]

I'm with you. Old man cutch doesn't get the respect he deserves, and he isn't that old.

What would be your projection for McCutcheon for 2020

[Sour Masher]

What would be your projection for McCutcheon for 2020

Hard to say for his counting stats, because I don't know how long he will be out. I generally shy away from taking players who have a slower than expected recovery from a major injury, but I can't help buy like McCutchen for his underrated skill set.

He has a lifetime .378 OBP, and I expect him to match or exceed that this year (it was exactly what he happened to do last year). IF (big if) he doesn't end up missing more than a couple of weeks, I think he can approach 30 hrs, 100 runs, 80 rbis, again, if he gets right soon, and is 100%. He still has a sprint speed over the 90th percentile, so he could surprise with a few SBs (5-10 is my guess if he only misses a couple of weeks and looks right) under Girardi too.