NFBC $150 Draft Champions - Big Tymers

[Big Tymer]

Wow...you picked a winner lol

And another guy in this league is apparently in TGFBI - Brian Buffamonte.

Guy apparently runs a podcast on Draft Champions so I really f'd up picking this league

EDIT - but then I look at his team thus far and its Bellinger, Bogaerts, Snell and Bryant. No real speed which gets increasingly scarce in this league. Having been on RJ for a long, long time I swear we're just as good as many of these "experts". We just have a day job...

[Big Tymer]

The vig on these entries is nontrivial isn't it? If it's what I remember it being (and I'm not in a place to check right now) it's hard to believe that anyone could have a large enough edge to make 90 entries sensible.

Not too bad - $150. The "Main Event" is the one that is $1700

[Ken]

And another guy in this league is apparently in TGFBI - Brian Buffamonte.

Guy apparently runs a podcast on Draft Champions so I really f'd up picking this league

EDIT - but then I look at his team thus far and its Bellinger, Bogaerts, Snell and Bryant. No real speed which gets increasingly scarce in this league. Having been on RJ for a long, long time I swear we're just as good as many of these "experts". We just have a day job...

I don't know I sorta like his start Those are all guys who are attractive to me at various levels. As far as speed, I think he's going to be fine, 25 SB between the three hitters isn't 0. I bet he picks up some cheaper steals later. We tend to go to extremes - while steals are definitely harder to come by, we can swing too far in the other direction too and overvalue them. They are just one category.

I also read a lot of experts that put out some good content, so it's hard to disparage them like I've seen a couple times on here. Obviously there are writers that are behind the curve too though.

[Ken]

Not too bad - $150. The "Main Event" is the one that is $1700

The vig to the house on each team is about $30
$100 goes to the league prize
Around $20 goes to the overall prize (depends on the total number of leagues)

[Big Tymer]

I also read a lot of experts that put out some good content, so it's hard to disparage them like I've seen a couple times on here. Obviously there are writers that are behind the curve too though.

You misunderstand me as I'm not disparaging at all. For those who have been on RJ for awhile know that Zola, Sporer, Collette, Mike Fast and others used to post here. RJ has a ton of great owners and my point is a lot of us could hang as owners in RJEL could attest.

[Judge Jude]

also, yet another poster here was one of the "regular guys" in the Baseball Weekly league BITD and iirc he did very well.

[Ken]

You misunderstand me as I'm not disparaging at all. For those who have been on RJ for awhile know that Zola, Sporer, Collette, Mike Fast and others used to post here. RJ has a ton of great owners and my point is a lot of us could hang as owners in RJEL could attest.

Disparaging was a poor choice of words on my part. My bad.

But by intimating that "we" are just as good as many of these "experts", I feel like we undersell just how much knowledge they are able to gather. To be fair you said "many" and not "all", so you still may be correct. For example I have little respect for several of the big box writers at ESPN and Yahoo. But I have a lot of respect for some of the smaller shops, and given focus on a single league (they often spread themselves thin with several), I feel like they would likely whip most of us.

[The Feral Slasher]

Disparaging was a poor choice of words on my part. My bad.

But by intimating that "we" are just as good as many of these "experts", I feel like we undersell just how much knowledge they are able to gather. To be fair you said "many" and not "all", so you still may be correct. For example I have little respect for several of the big box writers at ESPN and Yahoo. But I have a lot of respect for some of the smaller shops, and given focus on a single league (they often spread themselves thin with several), I feel like they would likely whip most of us.

At what point does the variation in player performance/imjuries and luck for lack of a better word exceed the variation in knowledge and skill of the drafters ?

At some level of knowledge amongst players randomness plays a big part.

[The Feral Slasher]

At what point does the variation in player performance/imjuries and luck for lack of a better word exceed the variation in knowledge and skill of the drafters ?

At some level of knowledge amongst players randomness plays a big part.

How often would a 99th percentile player defeat a 90th percentile player. If u factor in keeper leagues and dump trade dynamics i really dont have a good idea how much skill and knowledge compare to performance variation. It is an interesting topic that i dontnhave a good answer for

[The Feral Slasher]

How often would a 99th percentile player defeat a 90th percentile player. If u factor in keeper leagues and dump trade dynamics i really dont have a good idea how much skill and knowledge compare to performance variation. It is an interesting topic that i dontnhave a good answer for

Maybe this is not a keeper league discussion? Zorry

[revo]

The vig on these entries is nontrivial isn't it? If it's what I remember it being (and I'm not in a place to check right now) it's hard to believe that anyone could have a large enough edge to make 90 entries sensible.

I agree with this. A 20% cut seems like a lot, and I can’t see how 90 entries becomes profitable.

Plus, you’re waiting 7-8 months for your ROI and capital to be returned.

[chancellor]

Disparaging was a poor choice of words on my part. My bad.

But by intimating that "we" are just as good as many of these "experts", I feel like we undersell just how much knowledge they are able to gather. To be fair you said "many" and not "all", so you still may be correct. For example I have little respect for several of the big box writers at ESPN and Yahoo. But I have a lot of respect for some of the smaller shops, and given focus on a single league (they often spread themselves thin with several), I feel like they would likely whip most of us.

I disagree. While past results don't always indicate future performance, I'd still be inclined to pick out easily a dozen of the regular and semi-regular Baseball Forum posters and throw them in any league they'd be comfortable in and would be fully confident they'd solidly compete and definitely have a chance of winning against a group of fantasy baseball experts. That's not to disparage the experts, but I don't believe the small edge (if any) experts would have in information would provide any level of statistical significance in fantasy baseball.

[harmon]

I agree with this. A 20% cut seems like a lot, and I can’t see how 90 entries becomes profitable.

Plus, you’re waiting 7-8 months for your ROI and capital to be returned.

Fantrax cash games generally payout at 90-92%. NFBC as you say is much lower than that, but some of their games offer the chance at big jackpot wins.

I personally prefer Fantax in every way over NFBC.

[mjl]

How often would a 99th percentile player defeat a 90th percentile player. If u factor in keeper leagues and dump trade dynamics i really dont have a good idea how much skill and knowledge compare to performance variation. It is an interesting topic that i dontnhave a good answer for

FWIW I'm in a couple keeper leagues that have Doug Anderson (and apparently now Byron) and used to have Jason, and neither of them have done exceptionally well. Doug hasn't won either league in eight years and Jason had three wins across two leagues in ten seasons.

[Ken]

FWIW I'm in a couple keeper leagues that have Doug Anderson (and apparently now Byron) and used to have Jason, and neither of them have done exceptionally well. Doug hasn't won either league in eight years and Jason had three wins across two leagues in ten seasons.

Byron is not an expert, he asks me for advice all the time