Keeper Strategy in a shallow mixer

[frae]

15 team mixed league with obp (5x5). We only keep 4 so it is really shallow right now and with only 15 teams there are plenty of cheap options late in the auction. I tend to like to keep my studs if they are at value or under with inflation unless I have guys who are projected to earn double digit profits. Keeping middling guys who will turn a profit but aren't elite keepers seems like a waste of the slot.

I wanted to see what you guys thought and to look at this years list.

1. A. Mondesi $5 - sure there are some questions about how he bounces back from injury, but can't pass this up.

2. T Turner $25 - A stud under value and with he and Mondesi I don't have to worry about speed and it only cost me $30 total.

3. Juan Soto $43 - This is what I bought him for at last years auction and it should not get cheaper in an OBP league. He counters the Mondesi OBP and is rock solid.

Those 3 I love together now picking the last slot is what I am here for.

JD Martinez $36- Do I go all in on studs? Good OBP, good power, and I have 4 guys that sort of compliment each other.

Josh Donaldson $18 - A cheaper version of JD who is also older, does the same things power and good obp

Jose Berrios $15 - Do I take a pitcher? This is sort of him at value maybe a few dollars under.

Gavin Lux $1 - Go cheap, but it fills my MI.

Ryan McMahon $7 - If he finally gets everyday AB's he probably earns on this, but this is the kind of contract I usually avoid in shallow keeper mixers.

Lance Lynn $1 - He will earn on this, and maybe even double digits.

Thanks for any feedback.

[Gregg]

What stud starting pitching will be available at auction?

For me I think that would make the difference between JD and Berrios. Love Lux at a buck, but I am not sure that would be a good move in this league.

[DMT]

What are the rules regarding keepers?

[joncarlos]

I would also want to keep the studs. So I would keep JD and Soto. Which JD? I think I'd go Martinez. Agree with Turner and Mondesi, though I'd be ecstatic if I could trade Mondesi for something else.

[frae]

What are the rules regarding keepers?

You can keep them for one year from the A year to the B year at their salary. Mondesi was a farm guy initially so he is on his A year going to his B year. B year guys add $10 to keep and then each year for up to 3 years you can add $10 to keep them. Turner is $15 b so $25 to keep and JD Martinez is $26 B so $36 to keep. You can only keep 4 and the farm system is only two players. I have Kieboom there now I traded Adell last year chasing the title, finished 2nd.

[DMT]

I would probably keep Lux. At that price he's guaranteed profit and if you're contending you'll be able to flip him for a nice return.

[Ken]

A few quick thoughts.

One, I don't see 15 team mixed as particularly shallow. It's not as deep as a 12 team only league, but the fact that you keep 4 players instead of larger keeper counts doesn't make it shallow in my opinion. It's a relatively deep league. Deep vs shallow is a description of the overall player pool, not related to keepers really.

Two, with just 4 keepers I'd imagine your inflation rate is muted, probably around 20-25%. At that level, I like Soto as a player, but $43 is extreme. Maybe he goes for more, but are you really missing out by overpaying? Donaldson seems like a much better keeper based on the price difference. Keeping a discounted Donaldson would allow you to buy Soto back at $50 if you wanted to.

I'd keep:

Mondesi
Turner
Donaldson

And then for my 4th I'd be looking at JDM vs Lynn and deciding if I want to go into the auction with more $ or the better player

[frae]

A few quick thoughts.

One, I don't see 15 team mixed as particularly shallow. It's not as deep as a 12 team only league, but the fact that you keep 4 players instead of larger keeper counts doesn't make it shallow in my opinion. It's a relatively deep league. Deep vs shallow is a description of the overall player pool, not related to keepers really.

Two, with just 4 keepers I'd imagine your inflation rate is muted, probably around 20-25%. At that level, I like Soto as a player, but $43 is extreme. Maybe he goes for more, but are you really missing out by overpaying? Donaldson seems like a much better keeper based on the price difference. Keeping a discounted Donaldson would allow you to buy Soto back at $50 if you wanted to.

I'd keep:

Mondesi
Turner
Donaldson

And then for my 4th I'd be looking at JDM vs Lynn and deciding if I want to go into the auction with more $ or the better player

I went to last years auction results when looking at Soto. Goldy went for $52, Arenado $52, Freeman $47, Harper $49, Stanton $43. Trout was $69 but he was all by himself at that price. I think in an OBP league Soto is as good as anyone after Trout, Acuna and Yelich. It might not be a ton of profit, but I'd want an OBP anchor. Donaldson has 2 of his last 3 years being cut short by injury and he is 34 so that concerns me.

[Ken]

I went to last years auction results when looking at Soto. Goldy went for $52, Arenado $52, Freeman $47, Harper $49, Stanton $43. Trout was $69 but he was all by himself at that price. I think in an OBP league Soto is as good as anyone after Trout, Acuna and Yelich. It might not be a ton of profit, but I'd want an OBP anchor. Donaldson has 2 of his last 3 years being cut short by injury and he is 34 so that concerns me.

Soto is certainly much, much better in the abstract, but the injury risk is baked in to Donaldson's discount. Soto earned $10 more than Donaldson last year in this format. It's the $25 price difference that I'm suggesting is too extreme.

I think 2019 Harper is a great comp for 2020 Soto actually. If Harper went for $49 last year, that's about how much I'd expect Soto to go for this year. So you are saving $6 by keeping him at $43. My suggestion is that getting Donaldson, or similar stats (injury risk included) would cost you close to $30. So instead of paying that $30, if you kept Donaldson at $18, you can take half that difference and apply it to a raise for Soto, and pocket the other half as profit.

[Art Vandelay]

I went to last years auction results when looking at Soto. Goldy went for $52, Arenado $52, Freeman $47, Harper $49, Stanton $43. Trout was $69 but he was all by himself at that price. I think in an OBP league Soto is as good as anyone after Trout, Acuna and Yelich. It might not be a ton of profit, but I'd want an OBP anchor. Donaldson has 2 of his last 3 years being cut short by injury and he is 34 so that concerns me.

I agree re ob% anchor in soto.

donaldson has played full games in 5 of 7 seasons and is half the price of jdm.

#4 selection is tough for you but certainly a great problem to have.

[Ken]

donaldson has played full games in 5 of 7 seasons and is half the price of jdm.

And in one of those 2 seasons he didn't play fully he put up 33 HR and a .385 OBP which is pretty similar to JDM's 2019 season actually. 2018 was the only anomaly.

There's a reason he just got a $100M contract.

[frae]

Soto is certainly much, much better in the abstract, but the injury risk is baked in to Donaldson's discount. Soto earned $10 more than Donaldson last year in this format. It's the $25 price difference that I'm suggesting is too extreme.

I think 2019 Harper is a great comp for 2020 Soto actually. If Harper went for $49 last year, that's about how much I'd expect Soto to go for this year. So you are saving $6 by keeping him at $43. My suggestion is that getting Donaldson, or similar stats (injury risk included) would cost you close to $30. So instead of paying that $30, if you kept Donaldson at $18, you can take half that difference and apply it to a raise for Soto, and pocket the other half as profit.

I can see the argument to just keep both Josh and Soto. Because if we are debating JDM vs Soto I lean soto even for $7 more. With Donaldson, Soto, Turner and Mondesi I have covered speed, power and fixed Mondesi's OBP while having only spent big on one guy. I appreciate your analysis, if we are saying Soto goes for $49, then JDM would have to go $43, Lynn probably goes over $8 but not sure how much more in a 15 team mixed.

[frae]

And in one of those 2 seasons he didn't play fully he put up 33 HR and a .385 OBP which is pretty similar to JDM's 2019 season actually. 2018 was the only anomaly.

There's a reason he just got a $100M contract.

Would you argue with me just going

Turner
Mondesi
Donaldson
Soto

That would cost me $91

[Ken]

Would you argue with me just going

Turner
Mondesi
Donaldson
Soto

That would cost me $91

Good point, that's a good list.

[frae]

Good point, that's a good list.

Thanks, appreciate everyone talking it out. I'll see if anything changes over spring training, but for now I'll stick with those top 3 and probably lean Donaldson to save a little money while also having good balance between speed, power and OBP from my group of keepers.