Keeper Strategy in a shallow mixer

[Hornsby]

Thanks, appreciate everyone talking it out. I'll see if anything changes over spring training, but for now I'll stick with those top 3 and probably lean Donaldson to save a little money while also having good balance between speed, power and OBP from my group of keepers.

yeah, with the OPB, It's definitely Donaldson in the last slot for me...

[cavebird]

I would also want to keep the studs. So I would keep JD and Soto. Which JD? I think I'd go Martinez. Agree with Turner and Mondesi, though I'd be ecstatic if I could trade Mondesi for something else.

I agree here. Maybe package a 2-1 with Mondesi and Lux for a guy like Hiura at $5. (hint, hint, frae).

[ssmallz]

What was the inflation in your league last year? That’s really the key to this. I play in a league similar to yours and assuming it’s a $260 cap w/out any crazy roster construction $43 for soto is way too much. I would go mondesi turner lux and Donaldson. Lux has a ton of upside and is so cheap. He could be a keeper for you for a number of years. After that it’s either Donaldson or Lynn. You could
Go either way on that one but I tend to prefer the hitter consistency. He gets a boost cause you’re in an obp league too

[cavebird]

What was the inflation in your league last year? That’s really the key to this. I play in a league similar to yours and assuming it’s a $260 cap w/out any crazy roster construction $43 for soto is way too much. I would go mondesi turner lux and Donaldson. Lux has a ton of upside and is so cheap. He could be a keeper for you for a number of years. After that it’s either Donaldson or Lynn. You could
Go either way on that one but I tend to prefer the hitter consistency. He gets a boost cause you’re in an obp league too

Still better to trade Mondesi and Lux for Hiura.

[frae]

Still better to trade Mondesi and Lux for Hiura.

I'll take a look at it CB.

[frae]

What was the inflation in your league last year? That’s really the key to this. I play in a league similar to yours and assuming it’s a $260 cap w/out any crazy roster construction $43 for soto is way too much. I would go mondesi turner lux and Donaldson. Lux has a ton of upside and is so cheap. He could be a keeper for you for a number of years. After that it’s either Donaldson or Lynn. You could
Go either way on that one but I tend to prefer the hitter consistency. He gets a boost cause you’re in an obp league too

I like Lux a lot but the way keepers are structured he would cost me $11 in 2021 and $21 in 2022 if I continued to keep him. I am not sure he is going to pop that much to say he is a multi year guy for sure. He will definitely earn on $1 this year though, but as we kind of hashed out above I expect Soto to go for about 49-51 this year if I throw him back. He gives me a rock solid OBP anchor to go with my speed guys. We will see what happens in ST.

[ssmallz]

I like Lux a lot but the way keepers are structured he would cost me $11 in 2021 and $21 in 2022 if I continued to keep him. I am not sure he is going to pop that much to say he is a multi year guy for sure. He will definitely earn on $1 this year though, but as we kind of hashed out above I expect Soto to go for about 49-51 this year if I throw him back. He gives me a rock solid OBP anchor to go with my speed guys. We will see what happens in ST.

IDK, Lux has a solid track record in the minors of good walk rates and strong ISOs. He's got a 70 grade future value and projected to play eveyday for one of the best lineups in baseball. If he hits, he's gonna move up into the heart of that order. His projections for this year have him around 20/70/70/10/.330 which easily earns $1 in just about any league and he's got room to exceed his projections. A high end projection for him is 25/15/85/85/0.350 with room to grow in the future. I could easily see his value somewhere close to $25 next season making him a nice keeper for next year. I get that Soto might go for $49 or 50 in the draft but is that worth it? I've got him at ~$35 uninflated value (5x5 obp) so unless your inflation is 50% I just don't see why he would be worth that. Based on your keeper structure and number of keepers, I'm going to guess your inflation rate is somewhere around 20%. That would make his inflated value somewhere around $42. Keeping him @ $43 is fair market value but I just think lux is the far better keeper given the price tag, this years production and possible upside