Corona Virus

[Sour Masher]

Another good one:

[rhd]

On 3/28/20, the ten countries w the highest # of CV-19 cases were:
1 USA 123,871
2 Italy 92,472
3 China 81,394
4 Spain 73.235
5 Germany 58,362
6 France 38,105
7 Iran 35,408
8 UK 17,312
9 Switzerland 14,108
10 Netherlands 9,819

Currently, this is the top 10:
1 USA 4,813,647
2 Brazil 2,733,677
3 India 1,804,702
4 Russia 850,870
5 South Africa 511,485
6 Mexico 439,046
7 Peru 428,850
8 Chile 359,731
9 Colombia 317,651
10 Iran 309,437

In March, 7 of the top 10 were Western European countries. Currently, none of them are. In March, none of the top 10 were Latin American countries. Currently, 5 of them are. The only 2 countries that are on both lists are the US and Iran, each ranked in the same or similar spot. Western Europe has figured out how to flatten the CV-19 curve while the US, who was experiencing a similar amount impact from the pandemic, has not. Similar types of governments, economic systems and cultures, different results. Very disappointing. US cases have increased by almost 39 times between the 2 dates. The cases of the European countries listed have increased from 2 to 5.6 times, except for the UK which has increased about 17.6 times.

How wrong I was about Europe figuring out this pandemic while the US hasnt. They're just as bad as us. Here's the current top 10 countries in total cases:

1 USA 8,976,435
2 India 7,975,281
3 Brazil 5,411,550
4 Russia 1,547,774
5 France 1,165,278
6 Argentina 1,102,301
7 Spain 1,098,320
8 Colombia 1,025,052
9 United Kingdom 917,575
10 Mexico 895,326

3 European nations in the top 10 now, along w 4 Latin American countries. Top 4 are still the same as before, except that India moved ahead of Brazil.

[heyelander]

What is Africa still doing? Is data not coming out, or has Africa somehow figured this out? I would have thought Lagos would be a huge disaster.

[Sour Masher]

What is Africa still doing? Is data not coming out, or has Africa somehow figured this out? I would have thought Lagos would be a huge disaster.

That is a good question. This article provides some answers (one is that they actually follow guidelines there): https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54418613

I'm happy to see Africa being hit less hard by this. As a whole, Africa deals with deadly pathogens all the time, and we have not heard about them as much as maybe we should, and maybe one thing to come of this will be greater empathy for pathogens that do not directly affect us. Nearly half a million people die of malaria every year and nearly 90% of those people are from Africa. Between that, Ebola, Zika, Cholera, and even the Plague, Africa has long had more than its fair share of pathogens to deal with, so maybe that prepared them for this.

It also reminds me of the tremendous good Gates has done fighting malaria and doing other good in Africa and elsewhere and how wrong it is that he is now being attacked by right-wing nut jobs (attack the guy for being a ruthless business man, sure, but don't attack a guy who has saved 100s of thousands as the one who started a pandemic--the irony of it is absurd).

[rhd]

Several African countries have reported a lot of cases, notably So. Africa w over 700,000. But I wouldnt necessarily trust reported numbers coming out of any country besides Western-styled democracies. Totalitarian regimes tend to be secretive and try to cover things up when it comes to negative info. That said, I havent heard much about what's really going on in Africa w CV-19.

[rhd]

Here is another very good video about CV-19 herd immunity. It is by Sabine Hossenfelder, a physicist who usually talks about physics. She is very smart, very educated and is what I would call ruthlessly scientific:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NENhBmN_tps&ab_channel=SabineHossenfelder

The video is 15 mins but her summary is only 20 secs. Basically, she says that there isnt much we definitely know about CV-19 herd immunity because we dont have enough data. She says that herd immunity may be achieved at a level of anywhere from 20%-70% of the population but we dont know how many people are immune so we not only dont know the specific CV-19 herd immunity threshold but we also dont know how close we are to this threshold. And she points out that immunity lasts for only about 2 months and that reinfection is possible.

I think her video is very good, just like all of her videos, but I have 2 main comments. First, she doesnt mention that apparently many people apparently have T-cell immunity to CV-19, which is long-term and lasts much longer than 2 months. Also, the reinfection cases appear to be rare and in all of the ones I've heard about the infection is either asymptomatic or very mild. But a commenter pointed out that it is unclear whether the T-cell immunity is from exposure to CV-19 or from prior exposure to some other coronavirus. So, if a person got infected w CV-19 but did not have T-cell immunity from some prior virus, it seems unclear whether their immunity to CV-19 would be long-term or not. Second, one might get the impression from this video that we are at the mercy of CV-19 because of our lack of knowledge. But clearly some places have figured out how to minimize the effects of this pandemic. I refer again to Taiwan which after a brief early spike has virtually eliminated its spread. They have 24 mil people and the population is dense - 1,680 per sq mile so there is plenty of opportunity for spread of CV-19. But they have had only 550 cases so far, almost all of which are from before April 21, and only 7 deaths. I would love to see a study indicating how many people in Taiwan have immunity. If not many are, then they would still be vulnerable if they stop doing the things that are enabling them to control the virus, e.g., mask-wearing, comprehensive contact-tracing.

[chancellor]

rhd - Is there anything remotely scientific on percentage of mask-wearing in Western Europe versus US? The perspective is Western Europe is much better than here, but the infection rates, as you noted, in many Western European countries is extremely high.

[rhd]

rhd - Is there anything remotely scientific on percentage of mask-wearing in Western Europe versus US?

I think that, in general, people in the US are pretty good about wearing masks in public. This is borne out by an article from a few months ago that surveyed mask-wearing in public and 89% of respondents said they did. My impression was that Europeans were the same but not necessarily so according to this recent article: https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ean-countries/. Some countries seem to have a mask-wearing percentage similar to the US but others, particularly the Scandinavian countries, are quite different. But whether the mask-wearing % is high or low, just about all of these countries have relatively high numbers of infections anyway. We know that mask-wearing greatly reduces the spread of CV-19, so what's going on? I dont really know. Perhaps among the non-mask-wearers are super spreaders and perhaps there are super-spreader events, like Sturgis. Or perhaps people are removing their masks when among family and friends and many people are getting infected that way. This is where having a comprehensive contact-tracing system probably would help greatly. Then we would know where and when people are getting infected.

The perspective is Western Europe is much better than here, but the infection rates, as you noted, in many Western European countries is extremely high.

Whose perspective? It used to be my perspective, but not anymore.

[heyelander]

I've seen some scary predictions about this, I really hope it is outliers and scaremongering. If I read correctly it went form one case in early December to 70,000 cases today.

I don't think it's just outliers and scaremongering.

[Gregg]

I don't think it's just outliers and scaremongering.

Me neither.

[chancellor]

I think that, in general, people in the US are pretty good about wearing masks in public. This is borne out by an article from a few months ago that surveyed mask-wearing in public and 89% of respondents said they did. My impression was that Europeans were the same but not necessarily so according to this recent article: https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ean-countries/. Some countries seem to have a mask-wearing percentage similar to the US but others, particularly the Scandinavian countries, are quite different. But whether the mask-wearing % is high or low, just about all of these countries have relatively high numbers of infections anyway. We know that mask-wearing greatly reduces the spread of CV-19, so what's going on? I dont really know. Perhaps among the non-mask-wearers are super spreaders and perhaps there are super-spreader events, like Sturgis. Or perhaps people are removing their masks when among family and friends and many people are getting infected that way. This is where having a comprehensive contact-tracing system probably would help greatly. Then we would know where and when people are getting infected.

Thanks!

Per the perspective part, it's prevalent in the media - an example, from the WSJ: https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-euro...ng-11594921596

[heyelander]

It's tough to talk about reinfection rates only 6-8 months in, no?

[rhd]

It's tough to talk about reinfection rates only 6-8 months in, no?

I dont know whether it is or not. But if immunity only lasts 2 months or so, a lot more people should have been reinfected, right?

[heyelander]

I dont know whether it is or not. But if immunity only lasts 2 months or so, a lot more people should have been reinfected, right?

but if lasts a year?

[rhd]

but if lasts a year?

All the info I've seen so far on CV-19 antibody immunity is that it lasts only for a few weeks, no more than about 3 months. The video I posted a link for above says that it lasts 2 months. What is uncertain is how much T-cell immunity people have that provides significant protection from CV-19 infection. A study showed that many people have CV-19 T-cell immunity that they acquired from prior exposure to other coronaviruses, notably SARS which was from 17 years ago. So T-cell immunity lasts for years. T-cell immunity provides protection because the T-cells know how to make new antibodies to fight CV-19. The fact that the world has had almost 44.3 mil. CV-19 infections but only an extremely small handful of documented reinfections indicates to me that there is some immunity that people have that lasts a lot longer than a few weeks or months. What appears uncertain is whether this immunity is all or mostly from prior exposure to other coronaviruses or whether exposure to CV-19 also gives you T-cell immunity.