Corona Virus

[The Feral Slasher]

Before I respond to your other posts I'll note that the newsletter has been republished and includes the following editiors note (bold emphasize mine):

Editor’s Note: After The News-Letter published this article on Nov. 22, it was brought to our attention that our coverage of Genevieve Briand’s presentation “COVID-19 Deaths: A Look at U.S. Data” has been used to support dangerous inaccuracies that minimize the impact of the pandemic.

We decided on Nov. 26 to retract this article to stop the spread of misinformation, as we noted on social media. However, it is our responsibility as journalists to provide a historical record. We have chosen to take down the article from our website, but it is available here as a PDF.

In accordance with our standards for transparency, we are sharing with our readers how we came to this decision. The News-Letter is an editorially and financially independent, student-run publication. Our articles and content are not endorsed by the University or the School of Medicine, and our decision to retract this article was made independently.

Briand’s study should not be used exclusively in understanding the impact of COVID-19, but should be taken in context with the countless other data published by Hopkins, the World Health Organization and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

As assistant director for the Master’s in Applied Economics program at Hopkins, Briand is neither a medical professional nor a disease researcher. At her talk, she herself stated that more research and data are needed to understand the effects of COVID-19 in the U.S.

Briand was quoted in the article as saying, “All of this points to no evidence that COVID-19 created any excess deaths. Total death numbers are not above normal death numbers.” This claim is incorrect and does not take into account the spike in raw death count from all causes compared to previous years. According to the CDC, there have been almost 300,000 excess deaths due to COVID-19. Additionally, Briand presented data of total U.S. deaths in comparison to COVID-19-related deaths as a proportion percentage, which trivializes the repercussions of the pandemic. This evidence does not disprove the severity of COVID-19; an increase in excess deaths is not represented in these proportionalities because they are offered as percentages, not raw numbers.

Below is the link to excess mortality referred to above. It's pretty telling.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-raw-death-count?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&region=World

[The Feral Slasher]

Question 1 - I'd expect, as did the researcher, that the US death rate, especially in the elderly, would go up significantly since a rapidly spreadable illness with no cure or vaccine hit the nation this year, and it's an illness that appears to have a particular proclivity for killing the vulnerable. So, the "sense" if you will, is to explain first, if the data is accurate relative to the death rate staying statistically the same, and second, if so, why?

Question 2 - No one knows at this point, but I'd sure be inclined to find out if the death rate in areas that have appeared to best limit number of illnesses and deaths from COVID-19 was different from areas that have not. Does this mean that if the death rates are the same that no preventitive measures for COVID is merited? Probably not. Does this mean that radical lockdowns are merited? Perhaps not. But, to me, it sure merits serious study.

"Whole study is pointless" - Well, we certainly won't agree on this. I could find thousands of studies I'd find far more pointless than understanding why the death rate remains the same during a pandemic. In fact, I'd consider that not only meriting study, but meriting broad-based extensive study at multiple universities with multiple hypotheses. Especially now that the genie is out of the bottle - which was going to happen sooner or later. Ignorance on this topic is not only not bliss, but it's already fueling stupid outcomes like more anti-vaxxer conspiracy theory.

My comment about it being pointless was basically in response to the inevitable right wing use of the paper headlines without understanding the context or content of the paper, and without appropriate skepticism. Which is exactly what has happened.

[The Feral Slasher]

My comment about it being pointless was basically in response to the inevitable right wing use of the paper headlines without understanding the context or content of the paper. Which is exactly what has happened.

After reading the letter below, it's looking like Genevieve Briand (author of the JH paper) is not really engaging in an academic study, but trying to to manipulate data to convince people that COVID is not really dangerous. Imagine that.

https://kemmerergazette.com/article/letter-to-the-editor-without-risk-that-are-no-rewards

Dear Editor,

On March 13, 2020, the President of the United States declared a national emergency. Governor Gordon declared a state emergency. I cried. For Wyoming residents of nursing homes who were denied visits from family and friends. For families who were denied, not only visits, but goodbyes, to loved ones.

At the end of April, the President of the United States delegated the powers to assess the needs for health orders, at the state level. By then, we had established that our hospitals were not overwhelmed. We had learned who the high and low risk populations were, and the high-risk individuals knew how to protect themselves. The common practice for surgeons to wear masks was extended to the whole medical care profession and COVID-19 patients were isolated. Still, in Wyoming, health orders were maintained.

Businesses, churches, and schools continued to be shut down. Seniors were denied the graduations they so deserved and looked forward to. Town celebrations were canceled or scaled down. Why for?

We have not been hurt by COVID-19 itself, but by the health orders. We understand Wyoming Department of Health’s role in continuing to monitor the situation, and we are thankful for the health guidelines it provides. What we do not understand are the orders. The health, safety and welfare of all Wyoming citizens should be weighed against health orders. Guidelines allow high-risk individuals to protect themselves and low-risk individuals to continue engaging in all activities that keep them financially, physically and emotionally healthy. Orders on the other hand, by reaching for an unattainable zero COVID-19 case goal, are not.

Sincerely,

Genevieve Briand

On behalf of Wyoming concerned citizens, Big Horn County.

[GwynnInTheHall]

After reading the letter below, it's looking like Genevieve Briand (author of the JH paper) is not really engaging in an academic study, but trying to to manipulate data to convince people that COVID is not really dangerous. Imagine that.

https://kemmerergazette.com/article/letter-to-the-editor-without-risk-that-are-no-rewards

Dear Editor,

On March 13, 2020, the President of the United States declared a national emergency. Governor Gordon declared a state emergency. I cried. For Wyoming residents of nursing homes who were denied visits from family and friends. For families who were denied, not only visits, but goodbyes, to loved ones.

At the end of April, the President of the United States delegated the powers to assess the needs for health orders, at the state level. By then, we had established that our hospitals were not overwhelmed. We had learned who the high and low risk populations were, and the high-risk individuals knew how to protect themselves. The common practice for surgeons to wear masks was extended to the whole medical care profession and COVID-19 patients were isolated. Still, in Wyoming, health orders were maintained.

Businesses, churches, and schools continued to be shut down. Seniors were denied the graduations they so deserved and looked forward to. Town celebrations were canceled or scaled down. Why for?

We have not been hurt by COVID-19 itself, but by the health orders. We understand Wyoming Department of Health’s role in continuing to monitor the situation, and we are thankful for the health guidelines it provides. What we do not understand are the orders. The health, safety and welfare of all Wyoming citizens should be weighed against health orders. Guidelines allow high-risk individuals to protect themselves and low-risk individuals to continue engaging in all activities that keep them financially, physically and emotionally healthy. Orders on the other hand, by reaching for an unattainable zero COVID-19 case goal, are not.

Sincerely,

Genevieve Briand

On behalf of Wyoming concerned citizens, Big Horn County.

Imagine that

[The Feral Slasher]

Another significant and curious aspect of this study is that, unlike the US, the overall death rate in China has gone way up during this pandemic (also indicating that their CV-19 deaths are far higher than what they've reported). So why would this happen in one significantly affected country but not another? I would like to see a study of the change in overall death rate in some other affected countries, like France, Russia, India or Brazil.

The "study" was pure BS and propaganda. It was inaccurate and -from what I can tell - intentionally misleading.

[Gregg]

Thank you all for the kind words, thoughts, prayers and well wishes.

We were to sick to make the hour and a half drive to the testing site. Mrs. Gregg found a test site that we could both get to today. It is 10 mins from the house.

My wife has lost her sense of smell and taste. I have not. She is up and down on the fever I do not have one. We both get the sweats of and on. We both have coughs, joint and muscle aches. We are both tired and the slightest activity seems to be cause for binge watching a show. Yesterday I could only work about half a day.

Theraflu seems to take the edge off of he coughing and aches. Enough to allow us to sleep at night.

Our appointment is at noon today. Then a couple of days to get the results. Either way we have to ride it out best we can. I am wondering the time frame of when the symptoms peak and then start to go down. She is 6 days into it I am 4 days in.

On the good news side my daughter is feeling better but still no smell and taste. That could take 2-6 weeks. She is nine days in today.

We got our results yesterday. We both tested positive. We are pretty sick. Sleeping a lot. Doing the smallest thing is a great chore. Smell and taste are pretty much gone.

[DMT]

We got our results yesterday. We both tested positive. We are pretty sick. Sleeping a lot. Doing the smallest thing is a great chore. Smell and taste are pretty much gone.

That sucks, hope you feel better soon.

[The Feral Slasher]

We got our results yesterday. We both tested positive. We are pretty sick. Sleeping a lot. Doing the smallest thing is a great chore. Smell and taste are pretty much gone.

Sorry to hear that...hope u both feel better soon

[Sour Masher]

We got our results yesterday. We both tested positive. We are pretty sick. Sleeping a lot. Doing the smallest thing is a great chore. Smell and taste are pretty much gone.

I hope you get better soon.

[chancellor]

My comment about it being pointless was basically in response to the inevitable right wing use of the paper headlines without understanding the context or content of the paper, and without appropriate skepticism. Which is exactly what has happened.

So the data is accurate, but since it might be used for purposes you don’t like, you agree with a prominent research university censoring work. Got it.

[The Feral Slasher]

So the data is accurate, but since it might be used for purposes you don’t like, you agree with a prominent research university censoring work. Got it.

the data isn't accurate. You fell for a conspiracy theory that even Fox News won't touch. And this was a student paper, not a prominent research university. They took it down because it was flat out wrong.

[The Feral Slasher]

the data isn't accurate. You fell for a conspiracy theory that even Fox News won't touch. And this was a student paper, not a prominent research university. They took it down because it was flat out wrong.

EDIT - I should clarify i suppose, I have no idea if her data is accurate, but it is clear that she is factually incorrect on this key conclusion -- Briand was quoted in the article as saying, “All of this points to no evidence that COVID-19 created any excess deaths. Total death numbers are not above normal death numbers.” It takes about one minute to determine this is completely wrong.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-raw-death-count?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&region=World

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm

From January 26, 2020, through October 3, 2020, an estimated 299,028 more persons than expected have died in the United States.** Excess deaths reached their highest points to date during the weeks ending April 11 (40.4% excess) and August 8, 2020 (23.5% excess) (Figure 1). Two thirds of excess deaths during the analysis period (66.2%; 198,081) were attributed to COVID-19 and the remaining third to other causes†† (Figure 1).

[ironfist]

We got our results yesterday. We both tested positive. We are pretty sick. Sleeping a lot. Doing the smallest thing is a great chore. Smell and taste are pretty much gone.

Hope you both get better soon.

[revo]

We got our results yesterday. We both tested positive. We are pretty sick. Sleeping a lot. Doing the smallest thing is a great chore. Smell and taste are pretty much gone.

Oh man, get better soon.

[The Feral Slasher]

So the data is accurate, but since it might be used for purposes you don’t like, you agree with a prominent research university censoring work. Got it.

And I am not sure how u came up with me favoring that this be censored. I just think people should think critically about the claims.