Corona Virus

[nullnor]

Gregg take aspirin, famotidine and vitamin D. and you better fucking survive dude. aspirin really helps.

[rhd]

This is the foundation of Bedford's analysis (and was the basis of yours as well until post thanksgiving). So basically that is the difference between our outlooks. I believe this is not a change in death rate, but a short term reporting anomaly, while I believe you think that is not the case. I see data that was consistent for over 4 months and then something changed significantly in one week. So the question is, why did it change ?

Here is a good reference post with data back to July with both 21 and 22 day lags ( u will need to scroll thru posts)

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1331780099490807808

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1331780099490807808

I suppose, in retrospect, I shouldnt have replied. I guess I was triggered by the words "done deal". It seemed like a ridiculous claim at first reading, then when I did the calculations it didnt seem that far off. However, in light of recent trends, I'm skeptical that we will reach 2000 deaths/day now at all, altho I guess it's still possible. I am concerned tho about the gloom and doom predictions, I dont think we're well served by exaggerating the effects of this pandemic or anything else. The surge appears to be levelling off, the vaccines will be here in a couple weeks and then we can start recovering from this.

[nullnor]

for the record when a virus affects old people it means it's a virus that is new. when a virus affects young people like the 1918 flu and the swine flu, it means it has been around before and older people have built antibodies to it. otherwise this can also be an indicator of either a new virus or new vector.

[Ken]

In case not obvious to all, here's some clarification on why numbers have been down the past few days (and while just from AZ and LA, it seems obvious these would apply to all states when you look historically at the "weekend" dips):

NOTES:

Arizona reported 10,322 new cases today, a portion of which was reallocated by Worldometer to the preceding date, Nov. 30 (when an unusually low number of cases, 822, were reported), based on the following statement released by the Department of Health Services: "This large number of newly reported cases is a result of the extended four-day weekend. Most days, local health agencies review and classify newly reported cases (identifying them as confirmed, probable, or not a case). They will follow up with healthcare providers and laboratories if there are any questions about details on a case, which may take additional time over the holidays. The confirmed and probable cases identified are then reported out on our dashboard the next day as the number of new cases. With the long weekend, classification was delayed for a large portion of cases, resulting in much higher numbers than usual.
It is important to note that these newly reported cases were from specimens collected over the last week and are not all from yesterday. Reviewing the Confirmed COVID-19 Cases by Day section of the COVID-19 dashboard will provide better context for when cases have occurred" [source]

Louisiana Department of Health: "Due to a recent processing error, some COVID-19 data that would have been reported November 29-30 is being reported today." [source]

source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

[heyelander]

do you door dash at night? in the near future you'll run across a bunch of kittens and mother trying to cross the street. one of the cats will meow on top of a stone wall. you'll go back and try to catch it and fail. the next day you'll knock on the door of the house it happened at and ask to look under the porch for it. and then later you'll notice the owners of the house had a barricade built to prevent door dash guys from going back and looking for stray cats.

I don't doubt it. Sounds perfectly in line with my actions/attitude

[Kevin Seitzer]

https://covidtracking.com/blog/daily-covid-19-data-is-about-to-get-weird

Based on what we’ve seen over the last eight months of state-reported COVID-19 data, we think two big, potentially misleading things are about to happen to the testing, case, and death numbers that allow us to track the pandemic in the United States.

First, by Thanksgiving Day and perhaps as early as Wednesday, all three metrics will flatten out or drop, probably for several days. This decrease will make it look like things are getting better at the national level. Then, in the week following the holiday, our test, case, and death numbers will spike, which will look like a confirmation that Thanksgiving is causing outbreaks to worsen. But neither of these expected movements in the data will necessarily mean anything about the state of the pandemic itself. Holidays, like weekends, cause testing and reporting to go down and then, a few days later, to "catch up." So the data we see early next week will reflect not only actual increases in cases, test, and deaths, but also the potentially very large backlog from the holiday.

There is more interesting detail at the link above. Among other things, they point out that hospitalization data is more stable than data on tests, cases, or deaths.

[rhd]

https://covidtracking.com/blog/daily...t-to-get-weird



There is more interesting detail at the link above. Among other things, they point out that hospitalization data is more stable than data on tests, cases, or deaths.

Good article. I am already very familiar w the irregularity in reporting. I have noticed that the days w the most cases are most often Tuesdays and Wednesdays, w also a high number of cases reported on Thursdays and Fridays and this article reinforces that idea. That's cases. I decided to manually parse thru the Deaths data on this site and it looks like Wednesday is the day w most deaths on average. Tuesdays are usually high, also, but sometimes there are low numbers for Tuesdays. Part of the gist of this article seems to be that the underreporting from Thanksgiving and the weekend might not be caught up until Friday or so, which somewhat surprises me. So I'm curious to see where we will be at the end of the week.

For now, the WorldoMeters site will be closing out its data for today in the next 2 hours or so and so far all but 1 state has reported and the deaths total for today now is 2,561. That's a new record but still that is an encouraging number because that would put the 7-day average daily deaths at 1,528, which is lower than what it was at the end of Tuesday last week (1,583). The COVID-19 Tracking site uses different data and so their death total might end up being higher but probably not by too much. So it looks like this will be more evidence that things are levelling off. I expect Wednesday's total to be even higher, so I'll report on that tomorrow.

Yes, there may be a small surge from the Thanksgiving assemblies, but that wont show up in deaths for about 3 weeks.

Edit: WorldoMeters closer out their data for the day. Death total was 2611, which gives a daily average of 1,535. The COVID-19 Tracking site closes out their data at about 11 PM so I'll try to have their total and average then.

Edit 2: The COVID Tracking Project site has closed its data now and their # of deaths was actually lower (2,473) so their 7-day average is 1,520.

[Ken]

Please tell me you didn’t just say 2561 is an encouraging number. That’s a ridiculously high number of deaths. Putting it into context in a weekly running average doesn’t help.

[rhd]

Please tell me you didn’t just say 2561 is an encouraging number. That’s a ridiculously high number of deaths. Putting it into context in a weekly running average doesn’t help.

The number was expected to be high because we expected catchup from whatever underreporting there was from Thanksgiving and the weekend. All of these cases were not from the same day, they were just reported today. The fact that it represents a "record" is artificial and is not nearly as meaningful as the fact that the daily average has gone down from a week ago. As it points out in the article that KS cited, the weekly numbers are much more indicative of what's happening than the daily numbers. I guess it does sound funny to state things the way I did, tho. Maybe that was your point.

[Kevin Seitzer]

The weekly numbers are normally more meaningful than any daily number. Right now the weekly numbers are messed up, too, and drawing conclusions from them about trends is dangerous.

[rhd]

UK is the 1st Western country to approve a CV-19 vaccine (Pfizer):

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/02/uk/pfizer-coronavirus-vaccine-uk-intl-hnk/index.html

First vaccinations expected to occur next week. Will be given in 2 doses 21 days apart and full immunity is projected 7 days after the 2nd dose.

[revo]

"The U.S. could see another 200,000 coronavirus deaths in the next three months if people don't take mitigation measures such as mask wearing and physical distancing seriously, according to the head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

"The reality is December and January and February are going to be rough times. I actually believe they're going to be the most difficult time in the public health history of this nation," largely because of the stress to the health system, CDC Director Robert Redfield said Wednesday during a U.S. Chamber of Commerce event."

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/528385-cdc-director-winter-could-be-most-difficult-time-in-public-health-history

[umjewman]

My buddy is an ER doctor and he was just notified that he will have his vaccine by the end of the month.

[TranaGreg]

My buddy is an ER doctor and he was just notified that he will have his vaccine by the end of the month.

Wow, that's certainly a great sign. Do you know which one?

[umjewman]

Wow, that's certainly a great sign. Do you know which one?

His wife was talking to my wife - I think it was the Pfizer one.