Page 309 of 309 FirstFirst ... 209259299307308309
Results 3,081 to 3,088 of 3088

Thread: Corona Virus

  1. #3081
    Welcome to the Big Leagues, Kid
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Silver Spring, MD
    Posts
    2,476
    Quote Originally Posted by The Feral Slasher View Post
    Just read an analysis that u.s. will average 2000 deaths per day starting in about 3 weeks. And that is without further spread, it is already a done deal. And cases are rising extremely rapidly, so likely to be much worse than 2000. The government response at all levels does not seem adequate
    When this was posted, I replied that I thought it was very unlikely this would happen in 3 weeks. OK, it's 3 weeks later. We are nowhere near 2,000 deaths a day. The current 7-day moving average for US daily deaths (according to the COVID Tracking Project site) is 1,422. The highest this average has been in the past 3 weeks was 1,642, on 11/25. There have been only 2 days that have seen >2000 deaths: 11/24 and 11/25. I did some calculations based the premise that deaths in the next 3 weeks would increase at the same rate that cases increased in the past 3 weeks. Based on that, I projected that we'd reach 2,000 average daily deaths in the 4th week. It turns out that that also was a faulty premise. Cases had increased 22.70% in the 3 weeks before this post. Deaths increased by only 12.03% in the last 3 weeks. "Done deal", huh?

    And what about that article predicting we'd have 410,000 (?) deaths by the end of the year? I forget who posted that and I dont feel like looking for it. That is looking as ridiculous as the other article. This pandemic is bad enough as it is w/o people trying to make it seem even worse.

  2. #3082
    Welcome to the Big Leagues, Kid
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Silver Spring, MD
    Posts
    2,476
    Interesting video (short):

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CTJ5...b_channel=WION

    It's about a case where a mother (in Singapore) who had CV-19 during her pregnancy gave birth to a child who has CV-19 antibodies. The child was not found to be infected. The video said that according to the WHO it is not yet known whether CV-19 can be transmitted from mother to child.

  3. #3083
    All Star The Feral Slasher's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    Seattle
    Posts
    8,696
    Quote Originally Posted by rhd View Post
    When this was posted, I replied that I thought it was very unlikely this would happen in 3 weeks. OK, it's 3 weeks later. We are nowhere near 2,000 deaths a day. The current 7-day moving average for US daily deaths (according to the COVID Tracking Project site) is 1,422. The highest this average has been in the past 3 weeks was 1,642, on 11/25. There have been only 2 days that have seen >2000 deaths: 11/24 and 11/25. I did some calculations based the premise that deaths in the next 3 weeks would increase at the same rate that cases increased in the past 3 weeks. Based on that, I projected that we'd reach 2,000 average daily deaths in the 4th week. It turns out that that also was a faulty premise. Cases had increased 22.70% in the 3 weeks before this post. Deaths increased by only 12.03% in the last 3 weeks. "Done deal", huh?

    And what about that article predicting we'd have 410,000 (?) deaths by the end of the year? I forget who posted that and I dont feel like looking for it. That is looking as ridiculous as the other article. This pandemic is bad enough as it is w/o people trying to make it seem even worse.
    Lol.

    1) it is not yet 3 weeks
    2) the last week's data reporting is clearly affected by the holiday on Thursday and likely Friday as well.

    When Tuesday and Wednesday and Thursday counts are well below 2000 this week I will be happy that things are improving and admit I was wrong and u were right

  4. #3084
    All Star The Feral Slasher's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    Seattle
    Posts
    8,696
    Quote Originally Posted by rhd View Post
    After looking into this more, yes Briand's study seems very questionable. I looked at some data from the CDC and it says that the total deaths in the US since the pandemic have indeed gone up. I dont know what CDC data Briand was saying indicates that there have been no excess deaths. The link provided in the article doesnt work anymore, so I cant find this out. I dont really understand CDC's methodology either but they say in several places that there have been more deaths than usual in the US this year and that about 190,000 of these were due to CV-19. I think JHU was justified in pulling the paper.

    I also looked at the "OurWorldInData" site, which evidently is operated by Oxford Univ., England. FeralSlasher mentioned this site but the page that really got my attention is this one:

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/e...~TWNŽion=World

    This is what I was looking for. It graphs the cumulative deaths from all causes from 2020 compared to the average deaths from the previous 5 years. It has the data from most European countries and also 7 others from around the world, including the US. It shows what one would expect: that the total deaths have increased this year for most countries. 2 of the few exceptions were Taiwan and New Zealand, which each started the year w more deaths than usual but over the rest of the year the deaths became fewer than normal. The US actually started the year w less deaths than normal but as of 10/18/20 had 16% more deaths than the prior 5 years. This would be even higher now since the fall surge. There are 2 big things to look for on this graph: 1) whether current deaths are above normal figures and 2) whether deaths have increased significantly from their level before the pandemic. For countries included in this data, the answer to both questions is yes. Curiously, for many Eastern European countries, the present death figures are not much different than those from the prior 5 years, but they still increased significantly during the pandemic because rt before the pandemic they were significantly below their normal death figures. The highest current percentages above normal are the US (16%), Spain (18%), Italy (16%), Chile (18%) and England & Wales (13%). Too bad they dont have data for some of the other severely affected countries, like Brazil, ARgentina, Colombia, Mexico, Russia, India ... and China!
    I am glad at least someone opened the links ! It really makes it apparent that Briand is completely off in her assessment

  5. #3085
    All Star The Feral Slasher's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    Seattle
    Posts
    8,696
    Quote Originally Posted by rhd View Post
    When this was posted, I replied that I thought it was very unlikely this would happen in 3 weeks. OK, it's 3 weeks later. We are nowhere near 2,000 deaths a day. The current 7-day moving average for US daily deaths (according to the COVID Tracking Project site) is 1,422. The highest this average has been in the past 3 weeks was 1,642, on 11/25. There have been only 2 days that have seen >2000 deaths: 11/24 and 11/25. I did some calculations based the premise that deaths in the next 3 weeks would increase at the same rate that cases increased in the past 3 weeks. Based on that, I projected that we'd reach 2,000 average daily deaths in the 4th week. It turns out that that also was a faulty premise. Cases had increased 22.70% in the 3 weeks before this post. Deaths increased by only 12.03% in the last 3 weeks. "Done deal", huh?

    And what about that article predicting we'd have 410,000 (?) deaths by the end of the year? I forget who posted that and I dont feel like looking for it. That is looking as ridiculous as the other article. This pandemic is bad enough as it is w/o people trying to make it seem even worse.
    So the last 2 days before the Thanksgiving Holiday the numbers were 2200 and 2300. How can you claim that we are nowhere near 2000 deaths a day ? Do you honestly think we had a change starting Thursday that is going to reduce the number of deaths ? That things suddenly got better on Thanksgiving. Or is a more likely explanation that reporting was interrupted by people's holiday plans ?

  6. #3086
    All Star heyelander's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Sactown
    Posts
    8,703
    Quote Originally Posted by Gregg View Post
    We got our results yesterday. We both tested positive. We are pretty sick. Sleeping a lot. Doing the smallest thing is a great chore. Smell and taste are pretty much gone.
    ugh... get better quick Gregg and ms gregg
    I'm not expecting to grow flowers in the desert...

  7. #3087
    All Star Kevin Seitzer's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Texas
    Posts
    6,924
    Quote Originally Posted by chancellor View Post
    So the data is accurate, but since it might be used for purposes you don’t like, you agree with a prominent research university censoring work. Got it.
    I don't see any indication that the data was actually accurate. CDC said a couple months ago that excess deaths in 2020 were ~300,000. Why do you think the data in the Briand study is accurate?
    "Jesus said to them, 'Truly I tell you, the tax collectors and the prostitutes are going into the kingdom of God ahead of you.'"

  8. #3088
    All Star Kevin Seitzer's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Texas
    Posts
    6,924
    Quote Originally Posted by heyelander View Post
    ugh... get better quick Gregg and ms gregg
    Yes. Hope things turn around soon.
    "Jesus said to them, 'Truly I tell you, the tax collectors and the prostitutes are going into the kingdom of God ahead of you.'"

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •