Page 268 of 269 FirstFirst ... 168218258266267268269 LastLast
Results 2,671 to 2,680 of 2688

Thread: Corona Virus

  1. #2671
    All Star Sour Masher's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Binghamton, NY
    Posts
    7,711
    Quote Originally Posted by umjewman View Post
    It may also presume “Covid fatigue” and people just being more lax with mask wearing and whatnot. Americans have short attention spans - I regularly see people in my town close together with no masks. Plus the possible (probable?) protests following the election no matter who wins and I could certainly see a surge.
    For sure. Many were over the "freedom restrictions" from day one. People definitely have gotten more lax and yea, the election could lead to a spike too.

  2. #2672
    Welcome to the Big Leagues, Kid
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Silver Spring, MD
    Posts
    2,372
    Quote Originally Posted by Sour Masher View Post
    I don't know how much impact it will have, but in cold areas, people do congregate inside more in the cold. As you say, it comes down to what is allowed, but in my area, restrictions have been lifted. Gyms and restaurants are open. As it gets colder, people will be walking and jogging less and going inside to the gym more. They will eat inside more. Some will bring their kids to indoor play spaces more. Again, all of this is dependent on what is allowed, but in many places a lot will be allowed by the winter ramp up. Places are always eager to open back up as soon as cases go down...sometimes they do it way too early. But I agree, 400k seems a high projection by Jan 1. 300k seems more likely.
    The 410,000 deaths figure was based on current restrictions remaining in place. And it didnt mention anything about "covid fatigue".

  3. #2673
    All Star Sour Masher's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Binghamton, NY
    Posts
    7,711
    Quote Originally Posted by rhd View Post
    The 410,000 deaths figure was based on current restrictions remaining in place. And it didnt mention anything about "covid fatigue".
    Did it mention vitamin D? That seems to help reduce mortality and folks create a lot more of it naturally by being out in the sun in the summer than in the fall/winter.

    Also, the current restrictions are down in my area, but not everyone has rushed to pack inside restaurants and gyms and such yet, because the weather is nice, so many are still eating outside and exercising outside. That is likely to change when it gets colder, so behavior will change if restrictions stay the same as they are now.
    Last edited by Sour Masher; 09-13-2020 at 01:06 PM.

  4. #2674
    Welcome to the Big Leagues, Kid
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Silver Spring, MD
    Posts
    2,372
    Another stats update as of 7:46 AM today. Last stats were from 9/7 at 7:46 AM, exactly 7 days ago. Mortality rate is figured using the current death total divided by the total cases from the update 3 weeks ago (8/24). I'm adding a new stat, R-naught, for the US. This is the average number of people that an infected person will infect. When the R-naught value is below 1.0 for an extended period the virus will start to disappear. The info will be from a site called rt.live. It lists the current R-naught values for each state. Curiously, however, it does not list the R-naught for the US overall and I cannot find any site that gives a current updated value for this. So, each week I will list the number of states that have an R-naught less than 1.0. I will also give the states w the lowest and highest values. If about half of the states are below 1.0, then probably the US overall is probably around 1.0. If >30 states are below 1.0, probably the US overall is below 1.0. A sustained value below 1.0 for an extended period may indicate that the pandemic is about to end. A high # of states w R-naught above 1.0 indicates that a surge is coming. E.g., 3 months ago, rt before the 2nd surge of cases started, there were 43 states w R-naught above 1.0. But just 1 month later, 34 states had R-naught below 1.0 and the surge started abating:

    - 6,710,031 cases in the US, up from 6,460,421, an increase of 3.86% which is a smaller increase than last time (4.62%). The new cases for this period were 249,610 which gives a 7-day daily average of 35,659, down from 40,773. A comparison w last period's new cases (285.413) gives a new cases increase rate of 0.875, lower than that of the last update (0.949). Currently, there are 18 states that have R-naught below 1.0, so the overall US R-naught must be above 1.0. Texas has the lowest value w 0.85 and W. Virginia has the highest at 1.34.
    - 198,533 deaths in the US, up from 193,253, an increase of 2.73% which is a smaller increase than last time (3.22%). At this rate of increase, the US projects to have 200,000 deaths by the end of tomorrow. The new deaths for this period were 5,280 which gives a 7-day daily average of 754, down from 861. The mortality rate is 3.38% (198,533/5,874,295), slightly lower than last time (3.47% (193,253/5,567,765)). The rate for the week's new deaths is 1.72% (5,280/306,530), slightly higher than last time (1.64% (6,026/367,452)).
    - 29,197,386 cases worldwide, up from 27,289,930, an increase of 6.99% which is a lesser increase than last time (7.46%). The new cases for this period were 1,907,456, which gives a 7-day daily average of 272,494, up from 270,513. A comparison w last period's new cases (1,893,589) gives a new cases increase rate of 1.007, which is lower than last time (1.051).
    - 929,771 deaths worldwide, up from 894,204, an increase of 3.98% which is a much smaller increase than last time (4.97%). At this rate of increase, the world projects to have 1,000,000 deaths by about 9/28. The new deaths for this period were 35,567, which gives a 7-day daily average of 5.081, down from 6,052. The mortality rate is 3.94% (929,771/23,595,204), lower than last time (4.10% (894,204/21,833,432)). The rate for the week's new deaths is 2.02% (35,567/1,761,772), lower than for the previous period (2.33% (42,365/1,820,909)).

    New case rate increases went down for both the US and the world. For the US, the current week's mortality rate got slightly higher.

    Cases continue to surge in Brazil, Peru, Argentina, Colombia, Bolivia, Mexico, Spain, France, Romania, India, Bangladesh, the Philippines, Indonesia, Ukraine, Iraq, Israel and Morocco. But case rate increases have slowed recently in Japan. India again set the record of most new cases in 1 day for any country with 97,570.

  5. #2675
    Journeyman Teenwolf's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Thunder Bay, ON, CAN
    Posts
    2,959
    A producer of Covid vaccines is saying we might not be able to supply the world until the end of 2024.

    I tend to be pessimistic, so ive been preparing for the end of 2021 or mid-2022... end of '24 feels like a lot of devastation is yet to come before things get better. The new great depression is almost a certainty now.

    In Canada, we are likely to adopt UBI of $2K/mth to keep the economy running. In the US, I think they're going with the Mad Max strategy.

    https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/20...t-lead-vpx.cnn

  6. #2676
    All Star Sour Masher's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Binghamton, NY
    Posts
    7,711
    Quote Originally Posted by Teenwolf View Post
    A producer of Covid vaccines is saying we might not be able to supply the world until the end of 2024.

    I tend to be pessimistic, so ive been preparing for the end of 2021 or mid-2022... end of '24 feels like a lot of devastation is yet to come before things get better. The new great depression is almost a certainty now.

    In Canada, we are likely to adopt UBI of $2K/mth to keep the economy running. In the US, I think they're going with the Mad Max strategy.

    https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/20...t-lead-vpx.cnn
    It is a reality of the world that the haves and have nots of many nations are still vastly privileged over the have nots of other nations. It is not surprising to me that the poorest people living in the poorest countries will be last in line for vaccines and that it will take years to get those vaccines to them. Living in Canada, you will almost assuredly have access to a vaccine well before the end of 2021.

  7. #2677
    Journeyman Teenwolf's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Thunder Bay, ON, CAN
    Posts
    2,959
    Quote Originally Posted by Sour Masher View Post
    It is a reality of the world that the haves and have nots of many nations are still vastly privileged over the have nots of other nations. It is not surprising to me that the poorest people living in the poorest countries will be last in line for vaccines and that it will take years to get those vaccines to them. Living in Canada, you will almost assuredly have access to a vaccine well before the end of 2021.
    But the world and the economy can never be fully re-opened until everyone is vaccinated. Travel, school, businesses, etc, all would still be impacted until vaccines are fully administered.

    Both the Dems and Republicans are spreading anti-vaxxer nonsense contributing to an astronomical number of people saying they wouldn't take the vaccine. I think it was 32%. So these complicating factors give me a sense that we're likely to drag well past the longest estimates, as citizens are too stupid to follow the guidelines to get us through it. As with most of my dire predictions, I hope I'm wrong.

  8. #2678
    Welcome to the Big Leagues, Kid
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Silver Spring, MD
    Posts
    2,372
    US has 200,000 CV-19 deaths now . This was the upper limit that Fauci gave back in March.
    Last edited by rhd; 09-16-2020 at 02:00 AM.

  9. #2679
    All Star heyelander's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    Sactown
    Posts
    8,487
    Quote Originally Posted by rhd View Post
    US has 200,000 CV-19 deaths now . This was the upper limit that Fauci gave back in March.
    So we are done?!?! FINALLY!!!!
    I'm not expecting to grow flowers in the desert...

  10. #2680
    All Star The Feral Slasher's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    Seattle
    Posts
    8,345
    Quote Originally Posted by heyelander View Post
    So we are done?!?! FINALLY!!!!
    I wish he would have chosen a much lower limit

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •