Corona Virus

[Sour Masher]

I hope Fauci is the shot caller here. I can see what he is saying in this video as a middle ground approach--that we keep things totally shut down in places in bad shape, and maybe we open up places doing well. Still not ideal, but I can see that making sense. In places being hit hard, the fear will be there to stay locked down. In places with very few cases, that fear won't be there.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/...sn-bts-vpx.cnn

[The Feral Slasher]

More on Gates' take on this. He is very tactful, so doesn't name Trump, but he is basically saying we could have done more in February, now it is too late for this to go easy on us, but we need to take the economic hit and shut down aggressively now. The faster and harder we do it, the better off we will come out of it. Basically, what we have seen and talked about before. An extreme shut down for 6-10 weeks. Sad that it won't happen this way, but as I keep saying, I don't think our current leadership has the patience for it, and since I also think a lot of people would call for the shutdown to end early, I think he will have the support to end this early. He is talking about Easter now. That won't get this thing done. In fact, it will almost be pointless, so we cost jobs and hurt the economy for basically nothing in terms of flattening the curve.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/hea...Dci?li=BBnb4R7

My concern is that parts of the country will be so bad in 2-4 weeks that the horror of it all will scare anyone from trying to return to normal anytime soon. I hope not, but it seems unavoidable at this point. Think how different things are now from even one week ago.

[The Feral Slasher]

My concern is that parts of the country will be so bad in 2-4 weeks that the horror of it all will scare anyone from trying to return to normal anytime soon. I hope not, but it seems unavoidable at this point. Think how different things are now from even one week ago.

Three weeks ago no one in Seattle would have believed we would shut down schools and Boeing. And pretty much the whole state. A lot is going to change

[The Feral Slasher]

Cases in Louisiana have increased 12x since March 12, from 14 to 171. Cases in New York have increased 7x, from 228 to 1374. Colorado and Florida have a 5x increase. Washington state only up about 3x in that time.

This was one week ago. New York has something like 20 times this many confirmed cases. As sad as it is to say, it is going to look different in a week or two

[DMT]

Good read.

https://hbr.org/2020/03/that-discomfort-youre-feeling-is-grief

[nullnor]

It makes me wonder, how did Gates get to become a global elite? I mean someone had to have know this guy was working in his house developing this software and decided, "Well, we can let this guy into our club and not just go seize his work to keep our power." Tinfoil hats!

you've obviously never seen Gates story. Gates was the original shark. he stole DOS for 50k from some guy, and used it to build windows. he and Jobs both stole windows from Xerox. Gates would comment that when Jobs complains about propriety he openly says, i don't know what he is complaining about, i broke in and already found him there.

Gates just happened to be in the right place at the right time and put it altogether. don't get me wrong he was a hard worker. he invented basic. the dude would stay up for weeks and not shower. but computers became way more accessible earlier because he made a deal with IBM while Jobs would've taken more flesh from the world.

this probably played a role in him becoming the philanthropist he is now. he wasn't always like that. people hated Gates back in the day, yet they lionized Jobs. it couldn't be more opposite. and then he found a woman. and that's why he changed his focus. while Jobs died. the difference between Gates and Jobs in the early days were slim. but as time ebbed fate changed it a lot.

Gates is a saint now, while Jobs was the devil. a simple review of history tells the tail.

[Sour Masher]

Yeah, Gates is no saint when it comes to business practices. But when it comes to philanthropy, there are few better ultra-elites in history. I'm not even a fan of everything their foundation does, particularly the strings attached and slant to some of their educational grants. But it is so easy to not give back, as seen by so many other ultra rich families, and he does so much for so many. He has saved thousands and thousands of lives. The totality of his legacy is tremendously positive. He leads by example for the other ultra wealthy. A stark contrast to Bezos and others.

[DMT]

So Trump is sending 400 ventilators to NY, which needs 30K. How does anyone not see him as the monster he is?

[GwynnInTheHall]

So Trump is sending 400 ventilators to NY, which needs 30K. How does anyone not see him as the monster he is?

While Musk sends 1225 to Los Angeles and is looking for more to buy and distribute.

[swampdragon]

Still teaching today-

Does anyone want to learn a CAD program?

https://www.tinkercad.com/

[swampdragon]

Trump
retweeting
Scavino
Breitbart
and Greg Jarrett

and taking a swipe at Romney too

great leadership buddy

[gcstomp]

We are in such tragic times. at head of the table is literally the worst person with the most self-serving gross world view is in charge. The difference between hearing what a president should sound like, as in Cuomo and his daily briefings and his leadership while being fact based, to this trump monster is so stark.

[Kevin Seitzer]

A friend on Facebook posted a video from Dave Morrison of Blue Collar Logic.

Link here for those who want to watch the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WinPcASr8xw

I posted the following in response, thought it might be worth sharing here.


As best I can tell, Dave Morrison offers three reasons for optimism:

1. Coronavirus won't be nearly as contagious in the U.S. as it was in China and Italy
2. It will go away when the weather gets warmer
3. Our mortality rate in the U.S. will be much lower than it has been in China and Italy

The first claim is not supported by the evidence. Case rates in the U.S. are doubling every three days, if not a little faster. That's about as fast as the disease spread in China and Italy.

I am also hoping that the coronavirus will die down in the summer. Right now that's just a hope. The evidence I have seen either way on that from other countries is mixed, leaning toward it not being the case. The fact that the virus is exploding in New Orleans and Florida is not encouraging on that front. I'm also concerned that even if this is true, which would be very good, that we would still be in for a major resurgence in the fall.

As far as the mortality rate, we have had 800 deaths from 55,000 cases through yesterday, or about 1.5%. There's reason to think the real rate is lower because many people with coronavirus aren't being tested and diagnosed to be included in the case rate. On the other hand, there's reason to think the real rate is higher because most of those cases were caught recently and haven't had time to progress to either recovery or death. Probably the first effect is bigger and the real rate is more like 0.5-1.0%, based on epidemiological models, but I think the book is still out on this one. As long as we don't overwhelm our medical system, I'm hopeful we don't approach the Italian mortality rate of 10% or the Spanish mortality rate of 7%. New York City is headed in a concerning direction, but hopefully we don't reach that point in the country as a whole.

Even at a mortality rate of 0.5%, it's pretty clear we can't afford to let this spread unchecked through the whole population, given how contagious it is. We don't want to see hundreds of thousands of deaths.

[Ken]

As far as the mortality rate, we have had 800 deaths from 55,000 cases through yesterday, or about 1.5%.

Again I don't agree with this logic. It's like being in a golf tournament with 100 golfers and 10 have finished and are in the clubhouse - 5 of which are under par and the other 5 over par, with the remaining 90 still on the course. In this case saying 5% of golfers will shoot over par today makes no sense. We have to wait for the others to finish.

Mortality rate based on active cases doesn't make any sense.

I saw one good way to look at it based on the average duration to mortality of 14 days. Basically, on average those who die will do so 14 days after they get it.

So to calculate mortality rate you look at the active cases 14 days ago and the deaths in the last 14 days.

In the US, 14 days ago there were 1,248 cases. Since then there have been 742 deaths. Now, unfortunately that overestimates the mortality rate because there are so many new cases every day that we have a moving target, and we have people who are dying at less than 14 days, but it gives us a better idea than the 1.5%.

I think 1.5% is wayyyy too optimistic, the mortality rate will be much higher.

[Judge Jude]

Matthew Dowd
@matthewjdowd
·
5m
Andrew Cuomo this morning pointed out that rate of hospitalization has slowed in nyc. And the % rate increase of cases in Washington state has also slowed over the last week. Good news. Let’s keep watching this and hope it continues.

..................

(note that this in reality is just a possible avoidance of complete annihilation, basically - if the 'stay home' lockdown efforts were still yielding no improvements at this point, then we'd be even more focked than we already are. we're still focked, especially here in the NYC region. but maybe in a couple of weeks we can gain more confidence - while still staying at home. #trusttheprocess)