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Thread: Corona Virus

  1. #771
    All Star GwynnInTheHall's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Seitzer View Post
    I didn't realize what bad shape Spain was in. They are going to end up worse than Italy. And New York is going to give them both a run for their money.
    Is that because of population density?
    If I whisper my wicked marching orders into the ether with no regard to where or how they may bear fruit, I am blameless should a broken spirit carry those orders out upon the innocent, for it was not my hand that took the action merely my lips which let slip their darkest wish. ~Daniel Devereaux 2011

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  2. #772
    All Star Sour Masher's Avatar
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    Here is support for my position that the mortality rate is lower than some of you fear: https://www.npr.org/2020/03/25/82059...ther-countries

    Essentially, the article asks why Germany has, by far, the lowest mortality rate in the world for the virus right now, and the answer seems to be that they are testing more than anyone else in the world. Testing early and often helps with the spread of the disease, of course, but it also gives us the best look at what the actual mortality rate is, because it looks like just about ever case of the virus is being identified through their rigorous testing. If that means that actual mortality rate is close to the .5% we are seeing in Germany, that is still frighteningly high, but much, much better than what we are seeing from the global data.
    Last edited by Sour Masher; 03-25-2020 at 08:08 PM.

  3. #773
    All Star Ken's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sour Masher View Post
    Here is support for my position that the mortality rate is lower than some of you fear: https://www.npr.org/2020/03/25/82059...ther-countries

    Essentially, the article asks why Germany has the lowest mortality rate in the world for the virus right now, and the answer seems to be that they are testing more than anyone else in the world. Testing early and often helps with the spread of the disease, of course, but it also gives us the best look at what the actual mortality rate is, because it looks like just about ever case of the virus is being identified through their rigorous testing. If that means that actual mortality rate is close to the .5% we are seeing in Germany, that is still frighteningly high, but much better than what we are seeing from the global data.
    But Germany isn't 0.5% unless you are counting the active cases that havent resolved. If you are saying Germany is a better indicator because they test so many, why continue to use the wrong denominator?

  4. #774
    All Star The Feral Slasher's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GwynnInTheHall View Post
    They probably pay for healthcare too. What are they thinking?

  5. #775
    All Star The Feral Slasher's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GwynnInTheHall View Post
    Is that because of population density?
    Also an elderly population. Possibly more smokers than northern europe and US ?

  6. #776
    All Star Sour Masher's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken View Post
    But Germany isn't 0.5% unless you are counting the active cases that havent resolved. If you are saying Germany is a better indicator because they test so many, why continue to use the wrong denominator?
    That is the number the article uses. It isn't the right number, but we won't have the right number until a larger number of cases resolve. It makes sense to me that a higher rate of those that are yet to be resolved will be recoveries, as deaths happen faster than the 14 day recovery period. We don't know the number yet, but I continue to fall back on my best guess that it ends up in the 1-2% range. Maybe it is wishful thinking, but that is all we have for now.

    ETA: If you go by just resolved cases, the mortality rate is 5%, which is again far lower than the rest of the world. I think the real number is going to be a good deal lower than 5%, but I think Germany sets the upper limit at 5% based on the data we already have.
    Last edited by Sour Masher; 03-25-2020 at 08:28 PM.

  7. #777
    Quote Originally Posted by GwynnInTheHall View Post
    I've spoken to quite a few Doctors myself over the past 6 weeks, they aren't sharing that with me if that's the case. So I again, can't imagine this can't be handled with better prep.

    Age is variant, there are young 65 year old folks and old 45 year old folks so the actual number is irrelevant. So no I don't agree that seconds are all we have nor that age is the biggest factor.

    I may be wrong, but it's what I believe and that dictes how I feel about this.
    Did any of them mention universal DNR policy? That's where we're at now.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...ot-resucitate/
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  8. #778
    All Star Sour Masher's Avatar
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    If we believe any data from China, their flattened curve offers us insights as well. Their new cases are shrinking and much smaller than their resolved cases. If you use their resolved cases vs their fatal cases, you have a mortality rate of 4%.

  9. #779
    All Star The Feral Slasher's Avatar
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    Nurses, doctors, grocery store workers, anyone working thru this is a hero....

    https://nypost.com/2020/03/25/worker...rce=NYPTwitter

    he shortage of safety gear at one Manhattan hospital is so dire that desperate nurses have resorted to wearing trash bags — and some blame the situation for the coronavirus death of a beloved colleague.

    A stunning photo shared on social media shows three nurses at Mount Sinai West posing in a hallway while clad in large, black plastic trash bags fashioned into makeshift protective garb.

    One of them is even holding the open box of 20 Hefty “Strong” 33-gallon garbage bags they used to cloak themselves.

    “NO MORE GOWNS IN THE WHOLE HOSPITAL,” the caption reads.

    “NO MORE MASKS AND REUSING THE DISPOSABLE ONES…NURSES FIGURING IT OUT DURING COVID-19 CRISIS.”

  10. #780
    All Star Kevin Seitzer's Avatar
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    We reached 1000 deaths in the US as of yesterday.
    "Jesus said to them, 'Truly I tell you, the tax collectors and the prostitutes are going into the kingdom of God ahead of you.'"

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