Corona Virus

[GwynnInTheHall]

We got our results yesterday. We both tested positive. We are pretty sick. Sleeping a lot. Doing the smallest thing is a great chore. Smell and taste are pretty much gone.

I'd cook ya some chicken soup, but it might be cold by the time I got it to you.

So--Get well in whatever manner you can, keep us posted please.

peace.

[madducks]

We got our results yesterday. We both tested positive. We are pretty sick. Sleeping a lot. Doing the smallest thing is a great chore. Smell and taste are pretty much gone.

Oh no. I hope everyone recovers quickly. Give us an update when you are feeling better.

[rhd]

We got our results yesterday. We both tested positive. We are pretty sick. Sleeping a lot. Doing the smallest thing is a great chore. Smell and taste are pretty much gone.

Very sorry to hear that. TAke care of yourselves and my best wishes for both of you getting better soon.

[rhd]

Before I respond to your other posts I'll note that the newsletter has been republished and includes the following editiors note (bold emphasize mine):

Editor’s Note: After The News-Letter published this article on Nov. 22, it was brought to our attention that our coverage of Genevieve Briand’s presentation “COVID-19 Deaths: A Look at U.S. Data” has been used to support dangerous inaccuracies that minimize the impact of the pandemic.

We decided on Nov. 26 to retract this article to stop the spread of misinformation, as we noted on social media. However, it is our responsibility as journalists to provide a historical record. We have chosen to take down the article from our website, but it is available here as a PDF.

In accordance with our standards for transparency, we are sharing with our readers how we came to this decision. The News-Letter is an editorially and financially independent, student-run publication. Our articles and content are not endorsed by the University or the School of Medicine, and our decision to retract this article was made independently.

Briand’s study should not be used exclusively in understanding the impact of COVID-19, but should be taken in context with the countless other data published by Hopkins, the World Health Organization and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

As assistant director for the Master’s in Applied Economics program at Hopkins, Briand is neither a medical professional nor a disease researcher. At her talk, she herself stated that more research and data are needed to understand the effects of COVID-19 in the U.S.

Briand was quoted in the article as saying, “All of this points to no evidence that COVID-19 created any excess deaths. Total death numbers are not above normal death numbers.” This claim is incorrect and does not take into account the spike in raw death count from all causes compared to previous years. According to the CDC, there have been almost 300,000 excess deaths due to COVID-19. Additionally, Briand presented data of total U.S. deaths in comparison to COVID-19-related deaths as a proportion percentage, which trivializes the repercussions of the pandemic. This evidence does not disprove the severity of COVID-19; an increase in excess deaths is not represented in these proportionalities because they are offered as percentages, not raw numbers.

After looking into this more, yes Briand's study seems very questionable. I looked at some data from the CDC and it says that the total deaths in the US since the pandemic have indeed gone up. I dont know what CDC data Briand was saying indicates that there have been no excess deaths. The link provided in the article doesnt work anymore, so I cant find this out. I dont really understand CDC's methodology either but they say in several places that there have been more deaths than usual in the US this year and that about 190,000 of these were due to CV-19. I think JHU was justified in pulling the paper.

I also looked at the "OurWorldInData" site, which evidently is operated by Oxford Univ., England. FeralSlasher mentioned this site but the page that really got my attention is this one:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-cumulative-p-scores?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&country=USA~TWN&region=World

This is what I was looking for. It graphs the cumulative deaths from all causes from 2020 compared to the average deaths from the previous 5 years. It has the data from most European countries and also 7 others from around the world, including the US. It shows what one would expect: that the total deaths have increased this year for most countries. 2 of the few exceptions were Taiwan and New Zealand, which each started the year w more deaths than usual but over the rest of the year the deaths became fewer than normal. The US actually started the year w less deaths than normal but as of 10/18/20 had 16% more deaths than the prior 5 years. This would be even higher now since the fall surge. There are 2 big things to look for on this graph: 1) whether current deaths are above normal figures and 2) whether deaths have increased significantly from their level before the pandemic. For countries included in this data, the answer to both questions is yes. Curiously, for many Eastern European countries, the present death figures are not much different than those from the prior 5 years, but they still increased significantly during the pandemic because rt before the pandemic they were significantly below their normal death figures. The highest current percentages above normal are the US (16%), Spain (18%), Italy (16%), Chile (18%) and England & Wales (13%). Too bad they dont have data for some of the other severely affected countries, like Brazil, ARgentina, Colombia, Mexico, Russia, India ... and China!

[rhd]

Another stats update as of 7:46 AM today. Last stats were from 11/23 at 7:46 AM, exactly 7 days ago. Mortality rate is figured using the current death total divided by the total cases from the update 3 weeks ago (11/9).

- 13,751,337 cases in the US, up from 12,590,220, an increase of 9.22 % which is a smaller increase than last time (10.76%). The new cases for this period were 1,161,117 which gives a 7-day daily average of 165,882, down from 174,715. A comparison w last period's new cases (1,223,006) gives a new cases increase rate of 0.949, much lower than that of the last update (1.138). The current test positivity rate is 9.50%, lower than that of the last update (10.00%) but still way above the WHO threshold figure of 5.0%. Total CV-19 hospitalizations are 93,238, up from 83,870, an increase of 11.17% over last week which is a much smaller increase than last update (20.01%), but still the highest level during the entire pandemic. Currently, there are 10 states that have an R-naught below 1.0, many more than the 2 in the last update, but the overall US R-naught still must be well above the recommended threshold of 1.0. The values for the different states range from 0.91-1.63. This info is more indication that the fall surge is levelling off.
- 273,101 deaths in the US, up from 262,711, an increase of 3.95% which is a smaller increase than last time (4.29%). The new deaths for this period were 10,390. The mortality rate is 2.65% (273,101/10,292,492), lower than last time (2.77% (262,711/9,475,872)). The mortality rate for the week's new deaths is 1.27% (10,390/816,620), much lower than last time (1.84% (10,810/586,295)). The latest 7-day daily average # of new deaths is 1,422, down from 1,470 7 days ago. The "increase" in average daily deaths over the prior week is -3.27%, whereas the increase in average daily cases from 3 weeks ago over the prior week was 39.3%. The 3-week increase in deaths is only 12.03% whereas to the increase in cases from 6 weeks ago to 3 weeks after that is 22.70%. It's looking like increases in cases are only loosely correlated w increases in deaths 3 weeks later.
- 63,200,402 cases worldwide, up from 59,112,307, an increase of 6.92% which is a smaller increase than last time (7.59%). The new cases for this period were 4,088,095 which gives a 7-day daily average of 584,014, down from 595,540. A comparison w last period's new cases (4,168,783) gives a new cases increase rate of 0.981, which is lower than last time (1.005).
- 1,468,227 deaths worldwide, up from 1,396,726, an increase of 5.12% which is a smaller increase than last time (5.23%). The new deaths for this period were 71,501 which gives a 7-day daily average of 10,214, up from 9,911. The mortality rate is 2.89% (1,468,227/50,796,324), slightly lower than last time (2.98% (1,396,726/46,843,898)). The mortality rate for the week's new deaths is 1.81% (71,501/3,952,426), which is lower than that of the previous period (1.99% (69,376/3,487,018)).

New case rate increases went down for both the US and the world and the rate of increase in new cases over the prior week went down for both. The death rate increase went down for both and mortality rates went down for the both. For the US, the R-naught seemed to decrease but probably remains well above 1.0, the test positivity rate went down for the 1st time in weeks and altho the CV-19 hospitalizations continued to rise, they rose at a slower rate than in the last update.

Cases continue to surge in most of Europe, Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico, Canada, Indonesia, Myanmar, Malaysia, Japan, Armenia, Georgia, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Lebanon, Jordan, Iran, Pakistan, Kenya, Algeria and Morocco. And cases have surged recently in Panama. But cases increases have dropped in recent weeks in Iraq.

[rhd]

Just read an analysis that u.s. will average 2000 deaths per day starting in about 3 weeks. And that is without further spread, it is already a done deal. And cases are rising extremely rapidly, so likely to be much worse than 2000. The government response at all levels does not seem adequate

When this was posted, I replied that I thought it was very unlikely this would happen in 3 weeks. OK, it's 3 weeks later. We are nowhere near 2,000 deaths a day. The current 7-day moving average for US daily deaths (according to the COVID Tracking Project site) is 1,422. The highest this average has been in the past 3 weeks was 1,642, on 11/25. There have been only 2 days that have seen >2000 deaths: 11/24 and 11/25. I did some calculations based the premise that deaths in the next 3 weeks would increase at the same rate that cases increased in the past 3 weeks. Based on that, I projected that we'd reach 2,000 average daily deaths in the 4th week. It turns out that that also was a faulty premise. Cases had increased 22.70% in the 3 weeks before this post. Deaths increased by only 12.03% in the last 3 weeks. "Done deal", huh?

And what about that article predicting we'd have 410,000 (?) deaths by the end of the year? I forget who posted that and I dont feel like looking for it. That is looking as ridiculous as the other article. This pandemic is bad enough as it is w/o people trying to make it seem even worse.

[rhd]

Interesting video (short):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CTJ5CIyQCTg&ab_channel=WION

It's about a case where a mother (in Singapore) who had CV-19 during her pregnancy gave birth to a child who has CV-19 antibodies. The child was not found to be infected. The video said that according to the WHO it is not yet known whether CV-19 can be transmitted from mother to child.

[The Feral Slasher]

When this was posted, I replied that I thought it was very unlikely this would happen in 3 weeks. OK, it's 3 weeks later. We are nowhere near 2,000 deaths a day. The current 7-day moving average for US daily deaths (according to the COVID Tracking Project site) is 1,422. The highest this average has been in the past 3 weeks was 1,642, on 11/25. There have been only 2 days that have seen >2000 deaths: 11/24 and 11/25. I did some calculations based the premise that deaths in the next 3 weeks would increase at the same rate that cases increased in the past 3 weeks. Based on that, I projected that we'd reach 2,000 average daily deaths in the 4th week. It turns out that that also was a faulty premise. Cases had increased 22.70% in the 3 weeks before this post. Deaths increased by only 12.03% in the last 3 weeks. "Done deal", huh?

And what about that article predicting we'd have 410,000 (?) deaths by the end of the year? I forget who posted that and I dont feel like looking for it. That is looking as ridiculous as the other article. This pandemic is bad enough as it is w/o people trying to make it seem even worse.

Lol.

1) it is not yet 3 weeks
2) the last week's data reporting is clearly affected by the holiday on Thursday and likely Friday as well.

When Tuesday and Wednesday and Thursday counts are well below 2000 this week I will be happy that things are improving and admit I was wrong and u were right

[The Feral Slasher]

After looking into this more, yes Briand's study seems very questionable. I looked at some data from the CDC and it says that the total deaths in the US since the pandemic have indeed gone up. I dont know what CDC data Briand was saying indicates that there have been no excess deaths. The link provided in the article doesnt work anymore, so I cant find this out. I dont really understand CDC's methodology either but they say in several places that there have been more deaths than usual in the US this year and that about 190,000 of these were due to CV-19. I think JHU was justified in pulling the paper.

I also looked at the "OurWorldInData" site, which evidently is operated by Oxford Univ., England. FeralSlasher mentioned this site but the page that really got my attention is this one:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-cumulative-p-scores?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&country=USA~TWN®ion=World

This is what I was looking for. It graphs the cumulative deaths from all causes from 2020 compared to the average deaths from the previous 5 years. It has the data from most European countries and also 7 others from around the world, including the US. It shows what one would expect: that the total deaths have increased this year for most countries. 2 of the few exceptions were Taiwan and New Zealand, which each started the year w more deaths than usual but over the rest of the year the deaths became fewer than normal. The US actually started the year w less deaths than normal but as of 10/18/20 had 16% more deaths than the prior 5 years. This would be even higher now since the fall surge. There are 2 big things to look for on this graph: 1) whether current deaths are above normal figures and 2) whether deaths have increased significantly from their level before the pandemic. For countries included in this data, the answer to both questions is yes. Curiously, for many Eastern European countries, the present death figures are not much different than those from the prior 5 years, but they still increased significantly during the pandemic because rt before the pandemic they were significantly below their normal death figures. The highest current percentages above normal are the US (16%), Spain (18%), Italy (16%), Chile (18%) and England & Wales (13%). Too bad they dont have data for some of the other severely affected countries, like Brazil, ARgentina, Colombia, Mexico, Russia, India ... and China!

I am glad at least someone opened the links ! It really makes it apparent that Briand is completely off in her assessment

[The Feral Slasher]

When this was posted, I replied that I thought it was very unlikely this would happen in 3 weeks. OK, it's 3 weeks later. We are nowhere near 2,000 deaths a day. The current 7-day moving average for US daily deaths (according to the COVID Tracking Project site) is 1,422. The highest this average has been in the past 3 weeks was 1,642, on 11/25. There have been only 2 days that have seen >2000 deaths: 11/24 and 11/25. I did some calculations based the premise that deaths in the next 3 weeks would increase at the same rate that cases increased in the past 3 weeks. Based on that, I projected that we'd reach 2,000 average daily deaths in the 4th week. It turns out that that also was a faulty premise. Cases had increased 22.70% in the 3 weeks before this post. Deaths increased by only 12.03% in the last 3 weeks. "Done deal", huh?

And what about that article predicting we'd have 410,000 (?) deaths by the end of the year? I forget who posted that and I dont feel like looking for it. That is looking as ridiculous as the other article. This pandemic is bad enough as it is w/o people trying to make it seem even worse.

So the last 2 days before the Thanksgiving Holiday the numbers were 2200 and 2300. How can you claim that we are nowhere near 2000 deaths a day ? Do you honestly think we had a change starting Thursday that is going to reduce the number of deaths ? That things suddenly got better on Thanksgiving. Or is a more likely explanation that reporting was interrupted by people's holiday plans ?

[heyelander]

We got our results yesterday. We both tested positive. We are pretty sick. Sleeping a lot. Doing the smallest thing is a great chore. Smell and taste are pretty much gone.

ugh... get better quick Gregg and ms gregg

[Kevin Seitzer]

So the data is accurate, but since it might be used for purposes you don’t like, you agree with a prominent research university censoring work. Got it.

I don't see any indication that the data was actually accurate. CDC said a couple months ago that excess deaths in 2020 were ~300,000. Why do you think the data in the Briand study is accurate?

[Kevin Seitzer]

ugh... get better quick Gregg and ms gregg

Yes. Hope things turn around soon.

[rhd]

So the last 2 days before the Thanksgiving Holiday the numbers were 2200 and 2300. How can you claim that we are nowhere near 2000 deaths a day ? Do you honestly think we had a change starting Thursday that is going to reduce the number of deaths ? That things suddenly got better on Thanksgiving. Or is a more likely explanation that reporting was interrupted by people's holiday plans ?

It's not my claim. The figures I cited are from COVID Tracking Project, but other sources would give similar figures. The data is what it is. There is some underreporting from Thanksgiving and the weekend but there is not going to be nearly enough from this week to push the 7-day average anywhere near 2000. The figures are virtually always higher on Tuesdays and Wednesdays so you're overestimating the significance of the numbers from those days last week. I would expect that today's figures will be high also, but that will not push the 7-day average anywhere near 2000 either. The death totals from the last 5 days are 5851. The deaths from today and tomorrow would have to be 4075 each in order to push the average to 2000. That wont happen. And there are many other things that indicate that the fall surge is levelling off. Not going down yet but levelling off.

Sorry if my post was a bit snarky. But I really get tired of language that makes things seem worse than they really are. Republicans have been using the tactic of fearmongering for years in regards to things like terrorism, drugs, crime, etc. Now Democrats are starting to use it. This is very sad and disappointing.

[The Feral Slasher]

It's not my claim. The figures I cited are from COVID Tracking Project, but other sources would give similar figures. The data is what it is. There is some underreporting from Thanksgiving and the weekend but there is not going to be nearly enough from this week to push the 7-day average anywhere near 2000. The figures are virtually always higher on Tuesdays and Wednesdays so you're overestimating the significance of the numbers from those days last week. I would expect that today's figures will be high also, but that will not push the 7-day average anywhere near 2000 either. The death totals from the last 5 days are 5851. The deaths from today and tomorrow would have to be 4075 each in order to push the average to 2000. That wont happen. And there are many other things that indicate that the fall surge is levelling off. Not going down yet but levelling off.

Sorry if my post was a bit snarky. But I really get tired of language that makes things seem worse than they really are. Republicans have been using the tactic of fearmongering for years in regards to things like terrorism, drugs, crime, etc. Now Democrats are starting to use it. This is very sad and disappointing.

I will respond more later but you should actually read the analysis and respond to its substance (Which actually is consistent with the process u used to estimate numbers) before u go calling it alarmist, ridiculous, fearmongering, dissapointing etc)