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Thread: Corona Virus

  1. #1041
    All Star Ken's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sour Masher View Post
    He was quoting the Adam Sandler movie Billy Madison--his entire post was a quote. The insult is still there, but the blow is softened by the reference, as it is kind of tongue in cheek.

    I'd say it is a testament to your cinematic tastes that you did not recognize the quote, but I think JJ used it rather than a direct reply to lighten the mood.
    Gotcha, thanks for the reference. And as you say, still an attempt at a backhanded insult trying to hide behind the humor. Pretty pathetic and passive aggressive really.

    Your analysis above was spot on Sour Masher.

    Putting our heads in the sand because someone doesn't understand the data that we do have available (even if incomplete) is the last thing we need to be doing.

  2. #1042
    All Star Kevin Seitzer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sour Masher View Post
    I think your question was earnest, JJ, so I will answer it earnestly from my perspective.

    Yes, the data we have in imprecise, but it is not garbage. I think RHD is trying to show the trends, because that helps us see where this is going and can anticipate when we may hit our first peak. That is valuable information, because it gives us a rough sense for when numbers may start falling and life can return closer to normal. At least, that is how I see the meaning and usefulness of what RHD is doing.

    The numbers, so far, have been useful to look at, because they paint a more extreme peak and longer curve than what the WH has suggested. That is a useful corrective, because if we just relying on our fearless leader, we'd have all thought we'd be packing the churches by Easter. That is not going to happen and the numbers RHD has been posting called that before Trump conceded it. So while these numbers won't give us precise totals for infections and deaths--we may not have a full accounting of those for some time--it does give us useful information and helps us know, generally, how bad this will get, and when it will be over.

    ETA: Early on your response to this was it wasn't going to be a big deal; that you were going to carry on as normal. That is how most Americans responded, because they were not being told what was likely to happen. This board helped me see what was coming before the MSM did. FS's post about the Washington area gave the warning call. Now, posts by RHD and others help me get a sense of where we are now--seemingly more accurate than if I just clicked on the main headlines about this thing from the MSM. They are behind the curve.

    To put it in baseball terms, this is like looking at the daily box scores rather than waiting for BA's hot stove reports to tell us who is doing well.
    I can think of a number of things that the numbers help me understand. Given that I am not in a healthcare or epidemiology job, the main practical import is that I understand the seriousness of keeping my family at home and practicing hygiene and social distancing. Nonetheless, I like learning about a major event that is happening in the world, and I enjoy doing it from a data perspective.

    Some of the things I learn about from following the data closely:
    1. The exponential spread of the virus.
    2. Some understanding of the mortality rate, which is imperfect in ways discussed several times in this thread. Spending some time with the data over time gives some perspective on this which one may not get if one just reads the figures quoted in the news.
    3. Which areas of the country are experiencing the biggest growth in cases and might be headed for issues in overwhelming the healthcare system
    4. How the testing rates correlate with measured case rates and which areas are testing better than others
    5. How much impact social distancing/isolation measures have on the growth of cases and when, both in our country and in other parts of the world
    6. When case rates begin to level off in various areas of the country (as they did in Washington state in late March) and whether they experience a resurgence if/when social distancing measures are lifted
    7. How the virus affects different demographics (sex, age)

    In my experience, the media reporting on these things both lags by a few days and doesn't report on many of the features I find interesting.
    Last edited by Kevin Seitzer; Today at 11:18 AM.
    "Jesus said to them, 'Truly I tell you, the tax collectors and the prostitutes are going into the kingdom of God ahead of you.'"

  3. #1043
    Thank you all for the insights - very helpful.
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  4. #1044
    All Star Hornsby's Avatar
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    I think that the information and the numbers that rhd, SM and others bring to the table are invaluable. And this is coming from a guy who is admittedly NOT a math guy, hell I'm barely a basic numbers guy. Information is power, and if I don't understand, I go and look it up so I DO understand.

    Obviously, right now the situation can be frightening and bewildering, so the more information we have, the better. We won't get out of this pandemic by Trumpian bluster, or burying our heads in the sand...it'll come from science, research, and many people SHARING information. So keep it coming fellas...
    "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake."
    - Napoleon Bonaparte (1769-1821)

    "Your shitty future continues to offend me."
    -Warren Ellis

  5. #1045
    All Star Ken's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hornsby View Post
    I think that the information and the numbers that rhd, SM and others bring to the table is invaluable. And this is coming from a guy who is admittedly NOT a math guy, hell I'm barely a basic numbers guy. Information is power, and if I don't understand, I go and look it up so I DO understand.

    Obviously, right now the situation can be frightening and bewildering, so the more information we have, the better. We won't get out of this pandemic by Trumpian bluster, or burying our heads in the sand...it'll come from science, research, and many people SHARING information. So keep it coming fellas...
    Yes, this is exactly what I was trying to say. I took JJ's post about the numbers being garbage as an attempt to stop the information flow in this thread. And that information is very useful.

    Apologies to Judge Jude and all for not saying it better/nicer like a few others here have done.

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