2k20: Luis Severino

[joncarlos]

With James Paxton getting hurt (shocker!), the Yankees are relying heavily on Sevvy and Tanaka to be their go-to starters after their third of a billion dollar man.

Last year Severino missed all but 12 innings of the season with a sore rotator cuff that somehow turned into a prolonged lat strain (the Yankees and their lats... man, I dunno). He came back and threw 12 innings, posting 17 Ks and 6 walks. In 2 postseason starts he added 8.1 innings, 10 Ks and 5 walks.

ATC has him down for 159 innings, 13-8, 3.70 ERA and 179 Ks. His ADP is around pick 60 in NFBC draft champions leagues, making him an SP2 for most owners.

But Eno wasn't impressed (from the Athletic):

But there’s also a shorter, less fun story emerging here. His fastball not only lost velocity, but it also lost some ride. His slider dropped another inch, which doesn’t necessarily mean it got worse, but the swinging strike rate on the pitch dropped nearly 40 percent. So it probably wasn’t good news.

Severino is coming off of such great heights that he can probably lose a tick and still be great. But maybe the slight sloughing off of his stuff means his bounce back will mostly be about volume, more than reascending those heights completely.

Fangraphs Depth Charts has Sevvy projected for 171 innings which is a bit more volume, but it's probably not reasonable to expect 190 innings again. So if Sevvy isn't dominating for 170, is he worth that high a price?

[chancellor]

I guess I'm not worried about the fastball or velocity issue until Spring Training. No offense to Eno, but after a nearly whole season of layoff, judging on a 20 inning database doesn't make sense to me. Here's my writeup on hime:

Luis Severino – Those who read my work from 2-3 years ago know I was big-time amped on him in 2017 and 2018. Still only 26, I suspect the Yankees will have him on a strict pitch count early. That, in addition to knocking off rust, could well lead to very mixed first half results. If he avoids injury setbacks, second half should return to his very good 3.00 – 3.25 ERA, 1.1 WHIP, and 10.5 K’s/9 IP numbers. If you’re in a keeper league, I’d be looking to value shop him onto your roster.

[Sour Masher]

I too expect a slow start, and overall numbers that will disappoint given his ADP. Long term, I agree with Chance that the SSS is too little to go on in terms of what he can get back to. He will be someone I may target at the AS break, if I can get him at a discount, assuming his owner his disappointed in his production to that point and ready to deal him.

[cavebird]

Shoulder injuries scare the f**k out of me. I don't know what to expect. Soroka is a Brave, and I had zero shares last year except for a waiver wire claim that I promptly traded for garbage. So, I guess some are okay to heal, but man, they scare me. I tend to avoid.

[Judge Jude]

he is back in NY for some more tests. the first ones this month didn't show anything, but the issues persist.

all I can say is I just went UNDER on the 101.5 games won by NYY this regular season. that was... aggressive anyway, for any team. and here you have Paxton out for months, Severino who knows, Happ turns 38 in October.....

I get that they were great last year in spite of so many injuries - and now they have Cole, so they have to win even more, right? I don't know that it works that way.

we should probably do an over/under thread during spring training!

[Sour Masher]

Here is an interesting break down of what might be involved. The short of it is, perhaps, that shoulder issue messed up something further down the chain. But there is no mention of exactly what or how long he will be out.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lucasse.../#53ae03ec7645