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Thread: FanGraphs Top 100 Prospects: Franco 1st 80 FV

  1. #41
    All Star Sour Masher's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by KnuckleBalls View Post
    Yikes! At least I discovered an awareness for Hirschsprungs disease. Let's hope this generation of smart kids spends more time researching genetics than law or baseball analytics.
    Yeah, these digressions are not super fun to watch. So many smart folks on here who give so much helpful advice that I greatly appreciate. I am biting my tongue because I put both Ken and cavebird in that category of smart/helpful and they are big boys who can fight their own battles. But we all get so much more out of their smarts and insights when stuff like this doesn't go on.

    I am glad, potentially, the thread is getting back on track. Franco is a beast, but I don't fully understand why he gets an 80 hit grade when other prospects who had similar numbers did not. But scouting may be the difference there. I'm just a numbers guy, so I'm not good at eyeing footage and seeing the difference between a 70 grade hitter and that oh so rare and magic 80 grade hitter. It must be hard to do, and somewhat subjective, to project at that level. Or maybe not, maybe someone can show me in the numbers how Franco grades out higher than Vlad Jr as a hitter, for instance.

  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sour Masher View Post
    I am biting my tongue because I put both Ken and cavebird in that category of smart/helpful and they are big boys who can fight their own battles. But we all get so much more out of their smarts and insights when stuff like this doesn't go on.
    Sorry

    Quote Originally Posted by Sour Masher View Post
    I am glad, potentially, the thread is getting back on track. Franco is a beast, but I don't fully understand why he gets an 80 hit grade when other prospects who had similar numbers did not. But scouting may be the difference there. I'm just a numbers guy, so I'm not good at eyeing footage and seeing the difference between a 70 grade hitter and that oh so rare and magic 80 grade hitter. It must be hard to do, and somewhat subjective, to project at that level. Or maybe not, maybe someone can show me in the numbers how Franco grades out higher than Vlad Jr as a hitter, for instance.
    I can't give you a huge difference, but we are comparing 2 of the best hitting prospects in the game over the last 5 years, so in some instances we are nitpicking.

    Here's what I see that may separate them very slightly in the numbers.

    When comparing them at a similar age/league , Wander appears to have a slightly better approach. Similar walk rates but Franco struck out less (i.e. Franco had 35 Ks in 495 PA vs Vlad's 62 in 527). In addition, his body type / footspeed gives him a slight advantage on IF GB, so he may have a slight BABIP advantage over Vlad.

    2019 Wander

    11-12% BB rate
    .320-.345 BABIP may be sustainable given the body type and above average speed (although not a burner).
    7% K rate (elite)
    .160 ISO
    18-19% IFFB
    6% HR/FB rate may suggest he was slightly unlucky in that dept (hard to see for sure without good batted ball profiles in the minors)


    2017 Vlad

    in A+ he saw his BB% peak to 17.2%, but that looks like an anomoly compared to ~9-12% at every other level
    .340-.365 BABIP was slightly elevated given his lack of footspeed
    10-15% K rate
    .160 ISO
    25-30% IFFB rate
    12% HR/FB rate


    To be fair, I'm pulling specifically those numbers that support the theory. There are some that would suggest the opposite. For example, Vlad had a 22% LD% vs Wander's 15%.

  3. #43
    All Star Sour Masher's Avatar
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    Thanks for the insights, Ken! Yeah, I guess it is picking between which two supermodels to date at that level. Just interesting to be that after all the hype Vlad got as maybe a generational hitter, just this year, we have Franco graded out just a tad better by some.

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